Heuristics in causal reasoning and their influence on eyewitness testimony

Abstract

In two experiments the effect of knowledge of the seriousness of an event's outcome on the estimated strength of its causes was studied. In experiment 1 participants (n=87) were shown a video of a homeless man being evicted from a police station by a police officer, during which the evictee fell. One group of participants were told that the homeless man subsequently died; the other group was told that he was uninjured. Participants who thought the homeless man had died more often blamed the policeman for the man's fall. Estimations of the force of the push were not directly related to the outcome of the event, but rather to the attribution of blame, with those who blamed the officer giving higher estimates of the force of the push. In experiment 2, before watching a revised version of the video, the participants (n=88) were assigned to one of four groups. Groups A and B were told that the homeless man had died; groups C and D were told that he had survived. In an effort to counter interference of blame attribution, groups A and C were told that the officer was to blame for the man's fall, and groups B and D that the officer was not to blame. The manipulation of guilt was not successful, but this time a significant relation between event outcome and push force was found, with those who thought the homeless man had died giving higher estimates of the force of the push than those who thought that the man had survived. As in experiment 1, those who thought the homeless man had died more often blamed the policeman and those who blamed the policeman again gave higher estimates of the force of the push. It appears then that the more tragic the outcome of a violent incident, the more blame witnesses tend to attribute to the perpetrator, and the more they tend to overestimate the amount of violence involved.     

Public Opinion and Representation of Women in National Legislatures: An Analysis of Cause and Effect

Studies of female representation in national legislatures have claimed that the gender attitudes of a country's population have an effect on female representation in that country's parliament. This claim is based on the assumption that there is a unidirectional effect of public attitudes on female representation. This article tests that assumption, and hypothesises that in countries with multi-member electoral districts the effect is likely to flow in the opposite direction. When women are nominated, and to some extent elected to parliament, their presence in national politics affects public attitudes towards women in that role. Granger tests of causality in eight European countries and in the United States generally support these hypotheses. The effect flows from public attitudes to female representation in countries with single-seat districts, and in the opposite direction in countries with multi-member districts.     

日本环境犯罪的刑法理论发展

日本从战后废墟中快速重建,但其工业经济的发展却是以人们的生活环境为代价的,在一连串的公害事故后人们才觉醒到环境的重要,并将环境作为刑法上的重要法益。但是由于环境本身的特殊性,以保护个人利益为基础的传统刑法理论在处理环境犯罪方面明显不足,因此不得不提出相应的修正理论。例如客观归责上的疫学因果关系说,乃至于主观归责上的危惧感说。然而,在面临举证困难的同时,为了有效预防环境犯罪,提早保护不特定多数人的生命、身体乃至于财产安全,日本最终在立法上采用了危险犯的立法模式。日本环境犯罪的刑法理论发展,对我国具有一定借鉴价值。     

建筑物抛掷物侵权制度的理论解析——由三个典型案例引发的思考

近年来,我国建筑物抛掷物侵权案件不断出现,由于缺乏明确的法律依据,导致各法院判决大相径庭.新出台的<侵权责任法>第87条确立了抛掷物侵权制度的一般规则.但该条规定过于笼统,因而理论上的正确解析至关重要.本文认为,基于注重对处于弱势的受害者保护之考量,此类型案件应采用无过错责任之归责原则,采取因果关系推定的方式,确立由可能加害的建筑物使用人承担补偿责任,并明确物业管理人在一定范围内之安全保障责任.     

医疗损害案件因果关系证明问题探析

医疗过失行为与损害之间的因果关系的证明,是医疗损害诉讼中的一个重要问题.根据医疗损害案件的实际情况,合理确立和适用案件诉讼证明规则,对于平衡医患双方利益具有积极意义.在坚持“谁主张、谁举证”的证明责任规则,以减轻防御性医疗和医疗诉讼泛滥的风险的同时,应采取“优势证据”证明标准,缓解医疗案件中因果关系不确定的影响,并通过表见证明、专家鉴定和证明妨碍等制度缓和患者的举证负担.     

外伤与流产因果关系分析

目的 研究外伤性流产法医学鉴定案件的特点,探讨如何利用临床资料,尤其是实验室检查结果（B超、血HCG变化等）对外伤性流产的认定及损伤程度的判定等问题.方法 根据流产的原因、分类及妊娠生理变化等临床特点,结合案情特点、临床表现、既往史、实验室检验及辅助检查结果等进行因果关系分析.结果 本组5例案件中4例为早期流产,1例为晚期流产,3例均因胚胎发育异常否认外伤性流产,1例因人为因素自行药物流产难以认定外伤性流产,1例认定为外伤性流产.结论 外伤史明确的前提下,外伤性流产的认定可首先依据实验室检查结果分析胚胎（或胎儿）发育情况,若胚胎存在异常,一般可直接排除外伤性流产,如胚胎发育正常,可再根据其他临床资料进行分析评定.     

社会学方法论上的两种因果解释范式——涂尔干与韦伯思想的比较及其启示

作为现代社会学的奠基人和最早自觉地研究社会学方法论问题的两位社会学大师 ,涂尔干与韦伯均强调因果解释在社会学研究中的重要地位 ,并将探求因果解释的策略与途径规定为社会学方法论的一个核心论题。但是 ,他们对因果性的意义、原因与结果的对应关系以及作用形式的分析互不相同。比较涂尔干与韦伯在因果解释问题上的异同 ,对于把握社会学方法论的整体脉络 ,对于理解当前社会学界的有关方法论争议 ,有十分重要的意义。     

青海省农业区主要猪病的流行病学调查

采用ELISA检测方法和流行病学调查方法,于2004~2005年对青海省互助、湟中、大通、乐都、民和、西宁6县(市)的142个规模养猪场和部分养殖户进行了猪瘟、猪生殖与呼吸综合征、猪圆环病毒2型感染、伪狂犬病等流行状况的调查。结果显示,猪瘟、猪生殖与呼吸综合征、猪圆环病毒2型感染、伪狂犬病在青海省农业区普遍存在,6县(市)之间血清抗体阳性率无明显差异;母猪繁殖障碍覆盖了所有种猪场,后备母猪不发情率约为8.2%,产死胎、木乃伊、弱仔的母猪占繁殖母猪的21%左右;猪瘟仍然是引起当地猪死亡的主要原因。     

甘肃省庆阳市犊牛瞎眼病的调查与预防

对甘肃省庆阳市的西峰、合水、庆城、华池、镇原 5个县 (区 )牛群流行的以犊牛双目失明为主要症状的疾病进行了流行病学调查、临床症状和病理变化观察、实验室检验、小白鼠和兔饲喂试验及本动物典型病例复制试验 ,结合流行区种植黄花菜的情况 ,综合诊断为萱草根素中毒。经采取限制牛放牧时间 ,避免或杜绝牛在每年冬春季节采食黄花菜根及其青苗等措施 ,流行区牛的发病数量明显下降。     

广西猪圆环病毒2型感染的流行病学调查

结合流行病学、临床症状、病理变化,采用PCR技术,对2004年1月至2005年5月采自广西14个市97个疑似猪圆环病毒2型(PCV2)感染发病猪场的197份组织病料(脾、肺、淋巴结)进行了PCV2检测;同时,对鉴定为PCV2阳性的组织病料和猪场进行了猪生殖与呼吸综合征病毒(PRRSV)、猪瘟病毒(CSFV)、猪流感病毒(SIV)和猪伪狂犬病病毒(PRV)的检测,另外,对6个地(市)11个生猪屠宰场采集的外观健康屠宰猪的295份组织样品(脾、肺、淋巴结)进行了PCV2检测。结果显示,在197份组织样品中检出PCV2阳性病料108份,平均阳性率为54.82%(108/197),阳性猪场62个,平均阳性率为63.92%(62/97)。PCV2与PRRSV、CSFV、SIV、PRV混合感染的组织病料总阳性率为42.13%(83/197),混合感染的猪场总阳性率为57.73%(56/97)。从21头外观健康屠宰猪的组织样品中检测到PCV2,阳性率为7.10%。由此可见,PCV2感染在广西猪群中已普遍存在,混合感染和健康带毒现象使病情更加复杂。