International Involvemen in Early Childhood Development in China

正EARLY childhood is a significant period of life and of particular social importance,"United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund(UNICEF)China’s early childhood development specialist Dr.Chen Xuefeng recently observed."It is vital that parents and teachers monitor children’s growth,listen to what they have to say and respect their ideas."     

Forecasting proportional representation elections from non-representative expectation surveys

This study tests non-representative expectation surveys as a method for forecasting elections. For dichotomous forecasts of the 2013 German election (e.g., who will be chancellor, which parties will enter parliament), two non-representative citizen samples performed equally well than a benchmark group of experts. For vote-share forecasts, the sample of more knowledgeable and interested citizens performed similar to experts and quantitative models, and outperformed the less informed citizens. Furthermore, both citizen samples outperformed prediction markets but provided less accurate forecasts than representative polls. The results suggest that non-representative surveys can provide a useful low-cost forecasting method, in particular for small-scale elections, where it may not be feasible or cost-effective to use established methods such as representative polls or prediction markets.     

The European Union’s credibility–expectations gap in its European neighbourhood policy: perspectives from Georgia and Ukraine

ABSTRACT

Fifteen years have passed since the European Union launched the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). Despite the EU’s attempts to reload the ENP, first in 2011 and later in 2015, in response to challenges in the neighbourhood, the ENP continues to suffer from a credibility-expectations gap. This article argues that understanding neighbour perceptions of the ENP offers useful insights about the ENP. Supported by twenty-five interviews with Georgian and Ukrainian public officials, the article unveils the EU’s credibility challenge in the Eastern neighbourhood caused by a gap between the EU’s own perception of its role and the role expectations held by the ENP partners, as well as a gap between partners’ expectations and the EU’s performance on the ground. The lack of coherence, legitimacy and consistency has undermined the credibility of the ENP in the eyes of its Eastern partners. The latest review of the ENP does not seem to address the credibility challenge.     

What makes political authorities legitimate? Students’ ideas about legitimacy in five European democracies and hybrid regimes

ABSTRACT

Because the legitimacy of political authorities exists only in the eyes of citizens, this study investigates which criteria citizens use to decide that an authority is legitimate. By comparing ideas about what makes political authorities legitimate, this study in five European democracies and hybrid regimes illuminates the ‘demand side of political legitimacy’. Using original student survey data, this article compares expectations of students from the Netherlands, France, Poland, Ukraine, and Russia about how political authorities should acquire the right to rule and how they ought to behave when in office. The analysis shows that the respondents across the five countries use similar criteria for granting legitimacy. Across the five countries, throughput and input were more important criteria for legitimacy than the output produced by authorities. Although several country differences were found, these differences did not align with regime type. The findings challenge the widespread view that what kind of authorities people consider legitimate is determined by their socialization in a particular political regime.     

Violent Victimization and Future Expectations: Results from a Longitudinal Study of At-Risk Youth

The relationship between offending and expectations for the future is well documented. Despite the link between offending and victimization and the wealth of research documenting the negative effects of victimization, how victimization shapes expectations for the future has not been fully explored. The authors investigate this relationship using longitudinal data derived from the Pathways to Desistance study. Using fixed-effects regression models for panel data that account for the effects of excluded time-invariant covariates, the authors examine time-varying factors such as self-reported delinquency, gang membership, binge drinking and drug use, and peer delinquency. The authors find that expectations for the future are decreased in waves in which a person is violently victimized. This finding indicates a potential intervention strategy for those who have been victimized, focusing on cognitive assessments postvictimization that could be useful in reducing revictimization as well as reoffending.     

南昌市返乡农民工就业及未来预期调查

在国际金融危机的背景下,南昌出现农民工集中返乡情况。为了解返乡农民工的生存现状和未来预期,通过对基层农村进行实地调查,分析农民工就业现状和心理预期,从而提出基层政府帮助农民工就业,发展地方经济的一些对策建议。     

国家治理现代化背景下重大疫情城乡联动防控策略研究——以2020新冠病毒肺炎的实际发展为例

此次新冠病毒肺炎是对国家治理现代化背景下突发性公共事件的一次直接考验。总体而言,仅仅依靠政府的单一力量很难迅速、快捷地形成应对策略,难以保证社会的总体稳定,而社会稳定的大后方主要依赖于城乡联动防控的支撑。自2003年“非典”以来,我国就格外重视对城乡联动防控策略研究。简言之,对城乡联动防控策略的探究,是应对当下肺炎疫情的一项关键举措。不难看出,此次疫情防疫阻击战,侧面暴露出城乡之间疫情防控措施的诸多不足。因此,以政府为主导,最大限度地运用城乡联动防控策略,将成为此次防疫阻击战胜利的关键所在。     

The Challenges Ahead

正media are calling it an event of great global significance alongside the U.S.presidential election. The leadership change of the Party will significantly influence the political,economic and social development of China.The upcoming Party leadership faces a     

LEGAL PROFESSIONALS AS TEACHERS OF FOSTER YOUTH: CHANGING EXPECTATIONS AND DEMANDING THE BEST

The foster care system sets low expectations for foster youth, and ultimately the system produces poor results in terms of outcomes. In its unique role, the legal system and its actors have the responsibility and opportunity to change expectations, mentor, and provide a frame work for successful reform using the skills inherent in the practice and study of the law. Importantly, foster youth must be supported and expected to achieve high educational outcomes through goals that are developed in partnership with service providers and professionals like attorneys.     

以经济控制论管理通胀预期

心理预期对市场价格有着重要影响,＂通胀预期＂便是人们对宏观经济的负面预期。管理好＂通胀预期＂是近年宏观调控的一个重要任务。从经济控制论的理论角度分析预期如何对价格产生影响,从而在经济控制论的框架下对管理好通胀预期提出一些建议。