制约台独主张实现的几个主要因素

发展与中国的政治经济合作关系是美国的长期利益需要,加之受国际法和外交承诺的约束,美国不会公开支持台独;两岸人民同为华夏子孙,血脉亲情不容割断,经济互补,相得益彰,人心思统,不可违背;大陆总体实力对台具有压倒性优势,且师出有名,有能力用武力维护国家统一.     

A Second Scottish Independence Referendum: Should the Diaspora get a Vote?

The 2014 Scottish independence referendum settled little in terms of Scotland's constitutional future. The after-effects of what was the largest exercise in democracy in Scottish history certainly increased Scotland's devolved authority but, following withdrawal from the EU and with continuing differences and disagreements between the Westminster and Scottish governments, there have been increasing demands for a second referendum. One aspect of these conversations has been about the voting rights of Scots living outside Scotland, whose relationship with the nation would certainly be impacted by any successful vote for Scottish independence. And yet, they have had no voice in that decision and despite calls for their inclusion in any future vote, such inclusion remains unlikely. This article examines the reasons why such inclusion would be challenging and then considers what the Scottish diaspora think about Scottish independence and voting rights, by considering qualitative responses to a survey of members of the Scottish diaspora.     

The development of Kurdistan’s de facto statehood: Kurdistan’s September 2017 referendum for independence

This research aims to analyse the drivers which informed the decision and timing of Kurdistan’s independence referendum on 25 September 2017. Here we argue that any proper examination of these drivers must begin by investigating the relationship between the fight to counter the Islamic State begun in 2014, the disputes arising as a result of Kurdistan’s presidential election issue in 2015 and the internal political rivalry exacerbated by the question of whether to hold a referendum. The findings of this article highlight the centrality of de facto entities’ internal governance in their struggle towards statehood. The fight against IS served as a primary driver in influencing the timing and the approach of the September 2017 referendum. While the 2015 political deadlock resulting in the illegal extension of Barzani’s presidency was not a determining factor leading to the referendum, nonetheless it quickened the process and influenced the timing.     

THE SINS OF THE GREAT-GRANDFATHER: THE ROWLATT ACT AND THE AMRITSAR MASSACRE

Justin Rowlatt, the BBC's South Asia Correspondent, writes a reflection on the 1919 Amritsar Massacre and the 1919 Rowlatt Act, which was a precursor to the Massacre. The author is the great-grandson of Sir Sidney Rowlatt, who was responsible for the 1919 legislation.     

Afraid of a ‘Kosovo Scenario’: A Disquieting Precedent for International Conflict Management

The UN Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999) represented an interim settlement that permitted conflict de-escalation while postponing the search for a lasting political solution. The final settlement should have been reached through negotiations between Belgrade and the Kosovo Albanians, and then endorsed by the UN Security Council, in accordance with the UN Resolution 1244 (1999). However, citing the ambiguity of the interim agreement and a deadlock in the negotiations, the United States and its allies recognized Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence in February 2008, thereby allowing the Kosovo Albanians to defect from the peace process. Therefore, instead of an internationally endorsed negotiated outcome, there has been an attempt at a unilaterally enforced political settlement, in disregard for the authority of the UN Security Council, which had placed Kosovo under international administration. The subsequent involvement of the International Court of Justice has failed to resolve the contentious issues between Belgrade and Prishtina or bridge the international divide over Kosovo. Besides creating a troublesome legal precedent, the recognition of Kosovo represents a bad model for international conflict management. The issues of concern are the viability of future interim settlements, good faith negotiations and the legitimacy and guarantees provided by the international involvement, including the authority of the UN Security Council. Some parallels are drawn between Kosovo and other territorial disputes, particularly in the Caucasus, indicating how the Kosovo case could influence other conflicts.     

试论检察机关如何应对舆情民意

网络发展带来的舆情风险,已经引起各界人士的高度关注.司法领域也不除外.舆论监督司法具有正当性基础,但当前司法领域涉案舆情民意过度介入司法的现象凸现,通过深入剖析其原因,论证分析检察机关应当如何积极、有效应对这一新型监督方式,必然对当前的司法实践有所助益.     

法律思维与大众思维关系的失真与还原

法律的自治性、司法与民主的纠葛以及精英主义思想，造就了法律人思维与大众思维的不同。其差异主要体现于思维焦点、思维背景和思维方式等方面。但当前学界夸大了两者的区别，使得其失真。这些差异并不当然意味着两者的不可共存。事实上，在法治社会里，它们在诸多方面是相互联系和融通的。就中国当下情形而言，须还原法律思维与大众思维的本相，并在尊重两者区别的基础上，以法律程序来沟通彼此的联系。     

Central Bank Independence in the World: A New Data Set

This article introduces the most comprehensive dataset on de jure central bank independence (CBI), including yearly data from 182 countries between 1970 and 2012. The dataset identifies statutory reforms affecting CBI, their direction, and the attributes necessary to build the Cukierman, Webb and Neyapty index. Previous datasets focused on developed countries, and included non-representative samples of developing countries. This dataset’s substantially broader coverage has important implications. First, it challenges the conventional wisdom about central bank reforms in the world, revealing CBI increases and restrictions in decades and regions previously considered barely affected by reforms. Second, the inclusion of almost 100 countries usually overlooked in previous studies suggests that the sample selection may have substantially affected results. Simple analyses show that the associations between CBI and inflation, unemployment or growth are very sensitive to sample selection. Finally, the dataset identifies numerous CBI decreases (restrictions), whereas previous datasets mostly look at CBI increases. These data’s coverage not only allows researchers to test competing explanations of the determinants and effects of CBI in a global sample, but it also provides a useful instrument for cross-national studies in diverse fields, such as liberalization, diffusion, political institutions, democratization, or responses to financial crises.     

贸仲委上海、华南两分会与贸仲委之争的，法律问题研究（一）——贸仲委上海、华南两分会不是独立的仲裁委员会

贸仲委上海分会、华南分会是1988年经国务院批准由中国贸促会成立的贸仲委的分会，不是地方政府批准成立的独立的涉外仲裁委员会；与《仲裁法》第10条规定国内新设仲裁委员会必须进行司法登记不同，《仲裁法》第七章确认并规定了中国贸促会设立涉外仲裁委员会和制定涉外仲裁规则的职权，但并未规定已设立近半个世纪的中国涉外仲裁委员会需要进行新设立司法登记，据此，两分会所进行的司法登记应予撤销或由登记部门撤回；两分会违法宣称为独立涉外仲裁委员会的行为因违法自始起无效，不得再受理贸仲委上海分会、华南分会仲裁条款案件，而应由贸仲委秘书局受理以维护当事人仲裁权利的正当行使。     

Party politics and the survival of central bank governors

Legally independent central banks leave elected politicians with little direct control over monetary policy. The most important indirect channel of influence for governments thus consists in appointing ‘responsive’ central bank officials and removing ‘hostile’ ones. This premise is tested by examining the effect of partisan ties between central bank governors and governments or presidents in 30 European democracies between 1945 and 2012. Drawing on an original dataset containing information on the party affiliations of 195 governors, event history models are employed to show that affiliation with a party represented in the executive (the government or the presidency) has a large and significant positive effect on governor survival. However, affiliation with an opposition party only increases governors' hazards during the first four years of their term, suggesting that the impact of the party label may be overridden as more reliable information about a governor becomes available.