Prediction of institutional aggression among personality disordered forensic patients using actuarial and structured clinical risk assessment tools: prospective evaluation of the HCR-20, VRS,Static-99, and Risk Matrix 2000

A minority of men and women with intellectual disabilities at times engage in, and are suspected, or convicted, of illegal activity. Recent policy developments in England and Wales emphasise the need to respond appropriately to putative offending risk through the provision of safe and effective community management, treatment, and support services. In line with these concerns, research has focused increasingly on testing the utility of an evolving variety of risk assessment procedures. Here, the authors set out to challenge the repertoire of a number of prominent and/or recently developed risk assessment procedures and the scope of an associated research literature, on the basis that contextual risk factors are receiving insufficient attention in relation to offending among people with intellectual disabilities. Drawing on the wider criminological literature, a novel study is reported that compares key contemporary proximal social and environmental circumstances in the lives of offenders and non-offenders with intellectual disabilities. A contextual risk score is derived, providing statistical support for increased consideration of the impact of relevant social and environmental circumstances. Increased emphasis on key contextual risk factors is recommended to strengthen community service responses to offenders with intellectual disabilities.     

Repression and incitement: A critical demographic,feminist, and transnational analysis of birth control in Estonia, 1920–1939

This article addresses the role of inheritance in the economic well-being of widows in early modern urban Holland. It discusses marital property law and inheritance law, as well as inheritance practices, by analysing marriage contracts and wills. The egalitarian distribution of property and the strong commitment to the nuclear family embedded in law was strengthened by wills. Widows benefited from these tendencies. A comparison with English law points to the strong position of Dutch widows. The legal system enabled widows to continue the household after the death of their spouses and in this respect their situation was remarkably similar to that of widowers.     

Building Bond Repayment Capacity in Developing Countries: A Study on Property Tax Collections and Debt Affordability in Mexico

This article uses a multinomial regression model to analyze the bond repayment capacity of issuers of municipal bonds in Mexico. The study emphasizes the role that property and land-based taxes have in the enhancement of repayment capacity, as these are highly underutilized levies with important revenue raising potential. The findings show that there is no statistically significant link between these taxes and the chosen proxy for repayment capacity. This follows from an institutional and legal framework that creates an artificial environment of fiscal solvency. The Mexican case is instructive on how not to create a subnational bond market.     

Policies first,institutions second: lessons from Estonia’s economic reforms

Abstract

It has become convention in recent years to treat the building of institutions as the centerpiece of successful economic reform. The case of Estonia challenges this view. Although effective economic institutions eventually arose, Estonia began its transition bereft of the institutions that supposedly serve as the requisites of robust achievement. The institutions only emerged after an ideologically driven core of leaders implemented policies that laid the groundwork. In particular, the imposition of hard budget constraints sidelined political capitalists opposed to the rule of law by severing them from the state subsidies, soft loans, and other privileges on which they thrive. In the absence of a powerful class of political capitalists, Estonian governments were free to forge and continually improve a collection of institutions that sets the country apart among its postcommunist peers. Good institutions are desirable but not necessary for policy reform, and they are better seen as auspicious knock-on effects than as prime movers.     

Going beyond data collection in ethnography: Options for bridging the gap between researchers and archivists

Abstract

This article investigates options for bridging the missing link between ethnographic field research and archiving. It interrogates the place of archiving in the entire fieldwork process and the roles played by researchers and archivists in promoting access. While a number of reasons explain the gap between research and archiving, the article identifies lack of collaboration as the main challenge. Borrowing from the postmodernist theoretical framework, the article argues that archivists cannot detach themselves from data collection, because the decisions they make are not objective but personal and subjective. The conclusion and main message are that digital technology, in spite of its many advantages, may not deliver all that it promises to data collection and archiving. There is a need to complement digital technology data collection and archiving with traditional archiving methods because of the latter's reliability and cost effectiveness.     

Actuarial risk assessment and recidivism in a sample of UK intellectually disabled sexual offenders

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of three risk assessment instruments: Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) and the Rapid Risk of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), in predicting sexual recidivism among 27 intellectually disabled sex offenders. The overall sexual offence reconviction rate was 30%, while non-recidivists remained offence-free over 76 months of follow-up. Static-99 presented as performing as well as guided clinical judgements in mainstream population studies [area under the curve (AUC)=0.64] exceeding the performance of RM2000 (AUC=0.58) in predicting sexual recidivism. However, the results were not statistically significant. In contrast to previous findings, the RRASOR presented the worst level of prediction (AUC=0.42). These results highlight the need to investigate further with larger sample sizes and in conjunction with more dynamic measures of risk. Proposed relevant factors are discussed in detail.     

The bounds of smart decline: a foundational theory for planning shrinking cities

Economic decline has led to a new wave of population decline throughout the US, meaning more and more cities are shrinking. Growing interest in using smart decline principles to respond to shrinkage has been met with controversy in cities such as Detroit and Cleveland. This paper advances a foundational theory of smart decline that takes as its starting point discussions of ethics, equity, and social justice in the planning and political theory literature, but is well grounded in observations of successful smart decline practice.     

盗窃正版软件标签行为性质界定——以上海首例盗窃COA标签案为视角

COA标签为正版操作系统的合法凭证。盗窃COA标签的行为不涉及侵犯著作权的问题,不构成侵犯著作权罪。盗窃COA标签的犯意不在于故意毁坏财物,不构成故意毁坏财物罪。COA标签载有一定的经济价值,其属性决定其可以成为盗窃罪的犯罪对象,因此,盗窃正版软件标签的行为应以盗窃罪论处。     

房产税调控商品房市场的效果与对策分析——以重庆、上海、北京为例

我国市场经济发展中商品房市场具有自住需求与投机投资的双重功能,国家为保障百姓生活安居乐业、国民经济协调发展,"新国五条"中通过扩大"房产税"开征范围,以支持自住需求、抑制投资投机行为调控商品房市场,在辩证分析其积极作用的同时,一定要注重其社会负效应的降低。     

债的相对性规则辨析

债的相对性是债的本质规定性,是大陆法系民法区分物权法和债权法的理论基础。债的相对性包括债的主体相对性、债的内容相对性和债的责任相对性。债权物权化和债的保全制度等情形是债的相对性规则的例外,但这些情形只是特例,根本不能动摇债的相对性规则。淡化甚至动摇债的相对性规则的观点是不妥当的。