以经济战略模型探析红色旅游景区的市场定位——以延安清凉山为例

近年来,全国范围内掀起了红色旅游热潮,延安也因此再次成为世人瞩目的焦点。作为延安红色旅游景区的重要组成部分——清凉山景区,如何利用国家旅游局发展红色旅游的机会,是其面临的急迫现实问题。以经济学视角,运用PEST模型和波特五力分析模型对延安及清凉山红色旅游景区进行分析,界定清凉山景区的市场发展定位、客源市场定位及形象定位,对推动延安红色旅游业整体形象的提升具有现实意义。     

Presentation of acoustic characteristics with network models for dialect identification

Objective To explore the presentation of acoustic characteristics with network models for dialect identification so as to screen out the optimal singular model for automatic dialect classifier. Methods Four selected typical neural network models for acoustic feature extraction, SOM (self-organizing feature Map), RNN (recurrent neural network), LSTM (long short-term memory network) and CNN (convolutional neural network), were individually simulated through python. With the dataset containing typical dialects (6036 samples of 105 persons’ spoken voices) from 13 cities in Jiangsu province, three aggregates were respectively built up for purpose of training, verification and test at the division ratio of 6:2:2. The test aggregate was then edited into sub-aggregates of 3 and 10 seconds, having each further added of white noise to form the sub-aggregates owning signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 3 and 10 dB. Thus, 4 test aggregates were thereby produced, with each containing 1207 samples. The appropriate classifiers were chosen to evaluate the performance of four above-selected models into their operations of training, verification and test. For the dialect identification, every selected network model was verified of its ability to extract features from the test aggregates owning different SNR and duration. Results With the previously-normalized data and network parameters, the confusion matrices of models were obtained from the output data of 4 neural network models processing into 4 test aggregates, having resulted in the Macro-F1 and Micro-F1 scores that are useful and eligible for evaluation of multi-classification problem. The results showed that LSTM and CNN are significantly better of performance than SOM and RNN. SOM is obviously more sensitive to the SNR of test samples, though having poor identification accuracy with the 3dB test aggregate. RNN has the improved accuracy for dialect identification, yet having the insufficient representation ability to key information of long-term samples. LSTM achieves the optimal evaluation scores of 93.1% (Macro-F1)/92.7% (Micro-F1) with 10dB/10s test aggregate, excelling in overcoming the bug of RNN with its characteristic structural unit. CNN is stable of identification accuracy, not easily affected with the length of speech fragments, thereby having better performance in noise-resistibility for substandard recordings. Owning the nonlinear transformation operations of convolution and pooling, CNN model is of good nonlinear expression ability to demonstrate nice fitting performance for information representation in dialect classification although it is incompetent in real-time presentation with the identified material. Conclusions LSTM+CNN framework is of better acoustic characteristics performance and robustness, capable of meeting the further updating development and application of automatic dialect identification. Besides, the audio sample duration and SNR are still the key for a model (singular or coalesced from two or more) to improve its identification accuracy. © 2021, Editorial Office of Forensic Science and Technology. All rights reserved.     

Child Welfare Practice Model Implementation Projects: Lessons Learned

Child welfare agencies implement practice models to guide their processes and practices, clarify expectations, and enhance service delivery to improve outcomes for children, youth, and families. Changing child welfare practices is a tremendous undertaking requiring assimilation of new concepts, policies, skills, and behaviors. The integration of a new practice model can be facilitated through tailored training and technical assistance (T/TA) grounded in implementation science. Based on qualitative analysis from a cross-site evaluation of Child Welfare Implementation Centers, this article provides an overview and lessons learned from 14 practice model implementation projects and the use of T/TA to support them.     

What is the Norway Model? Mode of Affiliation or Political Compromise?

Brexit is a high‐stakes political process, but there is still no clear understanding of the political factors that underpin the various affiliation modes that the UK is currently debating. These are treated as quite static constructs, with emphasis on legal detail not the political and societal conditions that make them operate. What does the inclusion of the UK in the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement—which is the core component of the Norway model—do to that arrangement, itself a domestic Norwegian compromise? Will the arrangement continue to function, or will the UK's presence fundamentally alter or even abrogate the arrangement? This article spells out the specific political presuppositions that the Norway model rests on, and notes that the UK cannot emulate these. In addition, it argues that the more closely attached to the EEA agreement the UK is, the more precarious the arrangement will be.     

Do we need warm leaders? Exploratory study of the role of voter evaluations of leaders’ traits on turnout in seven European countries

Previous research on leader effects has focused exclusively on the impact of voters’ evaluations of leaders on vote choice, disregarding possible effects on the prior step of deciding whether or not to turn out to vote. In line with the personalisation of politics thesis, leaders have a higher impact among dealigned voters. Previous studies have demonstrated that leader effects are stronger among voters who voice their dealignment – namely party switchers. However, the potential impact of leaders among those who exited (i.e., who have abstained) is still unstudied. Could leaders have a mobilisation effect and therefore trigger turnout decisions? What characteristics of party leaders are more relevant in this regard? This article is the first comparative study to examine how the evaluation of party leaders’ traits influences voter turnout in general elections. The work incorporates data from election studies across seven countries with different social contexts (Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and Hungary). Characteristics of leaders were grouped into two dimensions – competence and warmth – in accordance with the stereotype content model and relevant studies on leaders’ traits evaluation. Multiple binary logistic regression models were performed to analyse the predictive power of competence and warmth on turnout, controlling for sociodemographic, political ideology variables and voters’ past political behaviour. Results reinforce the personalisation of politics theory, showing the utmost relevance of warmth personality traits of leaders in voter turnout decisions. Competence personality traits were found to be relevant only in some situations. Interaction effects were also demonstrated between warmth evaluations and identifying with a right-wing party as well as past political behaviour with both warmth and competence.     

刑事法律援助服务质量差距分析

从刑事法律援助制度的立法发展进程来看,其重心在于通过面的扩大使这项制度真正成为待救济人群触手可及的公共福利,而事实却是参差不齐的援助质量使人们逐渐对这项制度失去信心。为进一步促进刑事法律援助制度的发展完善,需要对运行中的刑事法律援助制度进行过程分析。在对援助服务每个环节进行综合考量后,发现刑事法律援助服务质量的差距主要来自于立法者认知、服务质量标准、服务提供过程、服务宣传沟通和服务感知五个方面。     

Healing Families: Outcomes from a Family Drug Treatment Court

Family drug treatment courts (FDTC) have been acknowledged as a promising intervention for substance‐abusing parents involved in the child welfare system. Over the past decade, the number of FDTC programs has grown substantially, yet questions remain regarding the efficacy of these courts. This study examines the ability of the Snohomish County (WA) FDTC to address the three main goals of the Adoption and Safe Families Act. Utilizing propensity score matching, this study found that participants were more likely to have their children returned, experienced stronger treatment completion rates, and had less use of foster care. Implications for replication and further analysis are discussed.     

儿童颅脑损伤生物力学研究进展

本文综述了儿童颅脑损伤生物力学研究中大脑、颅骨、颅缝及硬脑膜等颅脑材料属性参数检测及儿童颅脑有限元模型构建研究进展,分析目前已建立的儿童颅脑有限元模型的不足,提出应加强儿童颅脑材料属性参数检测研究,建立相关数据库,为建立精准的儿童颅脑有限元模型奠定基础。     

"预防—震慑—应急"一体化:中国海外安保供给模式新探

基于以人民安全为宗旨的总体国家安全观和“以人为本、外交为民”的领事保护理念,受冲突影响和高风险区域的海外机构、企业和公民的安全是中国海外安保供给体系的首要关切。后疫情时代的安全环境、安全威胁和安保内容的新变化凸显了海外安保的供需落差,如何通过完善海外安保供给体系来应对后疫情时代的挑战,成为总体国家安全治理不得不重视的紧迫性议题。根据风险/焦虑-威胁/恐惧-危机/恐慌的升级过程,可将海外安保区分为预防、震慑、应急三种类型,政府、军队、国际安保公司、社会组织和海外企业能够发挥各自不同的作用。在明晰中国海外安保“阶段-类型”及对应的多元供给主体职能的基础上,中国海外安保供给体系的完善需要在总体国家安全观理念指导下,遵循“预防-震慑-应急”一体化的供给模式,建构多元供给主体联动体系,从而弥补现有供给体系的不足,全面推进“海外中国平安体系”建设。     

借鉴东南亚国家双语教学经验 探索广西高校双语教学新模式

中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立,迫切需要培养大批既懂多国语言又熟悉专业知识的“双语”型高级专门人才。因此,加强双语教学,学习借鉴东南亚等国家的人才培养经验,创新人才培养模式,是广西高校未来人才培养改革需要研究解决的主要问题。