PPP—BASED BOT模式在我国市政公用事业改革中的应用及实证分析——以兰州威立雅水务集团合作项目为例

本文通过分析市政公用事业的特点和在我国的发展现状,说明引入外部资本对其进行市场化改革是大势所趋。而在具体操作方法的选择层面,目前流行的项目融资方式——BOT模式多用于基础设施建设领域。由于市政公用事业自身特点的限制,传统BOT模式并不完全适用。而基础设施建设领域中新近出现的BOT模式的改进模式——PPP—BASED BOT模式由于有效地引入了政府参与,理论上应当同样适于应用在市政公用事业。本文通过对2007年兰州市威立雅水务集团合作项目的具体实证分析,印证了这种理论上的可行性具有现实的可操作性,并且由此总结了PPP—BASED BOT模式应用于市政公用事业的优势。     

Determinants of Personal Income Taxes for Barbados

The purpose of this study was to identify determinants of personal income taxes in Barbados and, using the Engle-Granger two-step procedures with annual data from 1976 to 2008, ascertain how these variables would impact on the dependent variable in the long and short run. The study showed that in the long run, the variables that would impact upon personal income tax receipts were marginal tax rate, real per capita income, and the rate of unemployment, while in the short run, personal income taxes were affected by current real per capita income in addition to lagged values of real per capita income, the marginal tax rate, and the rate of unemployment, respectively.     

期望效用理论是现实生活的决策基础吗?——基于前景理论的反思

现代主流经济学将不确定下的决策建立在期望效用理论之上,但大量的行为或选择悖论却对期望效用理论提出了挑战.事实上,人类行为并非追求期望效用最大化,而是包含了对风险的规避;风险厌恶也并非是普遍定律,而是更为凸显损失厌恶;同一问题也并非有相同决策,而是受不同框架的影响;决策权重与概率也不同,存在非线性关系;心理买价和心理卖价也不同,存在明显的禀赋效应;人们的选择与其评价往往也不一致,会出现偏好逆转现象.基于这些悖论,卡尼曼等提出了前景理论,它比预期效用理论更贴近现实,也更有利于理解和解释现实行为.     

Do Juries Meet Our Expectations?

Surveys of public opinion indicate that people have high expectations for juries. When it comes to serious crimes, most people want errors of convicting the innocent (false positives) or acquitting the guilty (false negatives) to fall well below 10%. Using expected utility theory, Bayes' Theorem, signal detection theory, and empirical evidence from detection studies of medical decision making, eyewitness testimony, and weather forecasting, we argue that the frequency of mistakes probably far exceeds these tolerable levels. We are not arguing against the use of juries. Rather, we point out that a closer look at jury decisions reveals a serious gap between what we expect from juries and what probably occurs. When deciding issues of guilt and/or punishing convicted criminals, we as a society should recognize and acknowledge the abundance of error.     

加强手枪射击教学实用性训练 提高学员的实战能力

目前,射击虽作为全国公安院校学员的必修课,大部分的射击教学都是以基础知识和基本技能训练为主,并不注重实战能力的训练,而我们培养的学员今后要使用手中的武器去与犯罪分子进行殊死搏斗。因此,提高学员的实战能力就成为我们手枪射击教师的当务之急。提高学员的实战能力,就要加强近距离快速射击训练;利用地形地物的射击训练;多目标选择性的射击训练;快速重新装弹训练;反应性射击训练。     

论法的价值层次

随着人类社会的演进和人类理性的发展 ,法的价值层次逐渐显现出来。伴随法的不同发展阶段 ,它体现为 :作为基础性价值的秩序、作为扩展性价值的功利和作为法的终极价值的正义     

质疑理性经济人的两个基本涵义：来自实验的证据

现代主流经济学以理性的经济人假设为基石,它所依据的标准理性概念具有内在一致性和效用最大化的双重特征。但目前大量的行为经济学试验却表明,人类在社会互动中体现的理性却与这种假设存在明显的差异：一者,任何个体都不仅仅关注物质利益的最大化,而能够关注社会性需求,这使得他要关注其他人的偏好;二者,任何个体都不仅仅关注一次性行为带来的收益,而是能够综合地考虑长期利益,这使得他更倾向于遵守由历史的经验和教训所形成的规则和习俗。     

Abrasion Collar Around Shrapnel Entry Wound

Abrasion collar is usually described as a feature of bullet entry wounds caused by friction and indentation. The present case is that of the peculiar entry wound caused by a piece of flying shrapnel which was ejected from a furnace in a steel plant. The scrap metal which exploded in the plant was sourced from the West Asia region. The entry wound on the chest was circular and had an abrasion collar around it. The projectile was a cylindrical object of obscure origin. The forensic science laboratory put forth the possibility that the projectile was a component of an artillery fuze. A decades old study which employed high‐speed photography has rejected the possibility that abrasion collars are produced by friction. High‐velocity projectiles other than bullets can also produce abrasion collars as the rubbing of the bullet against the skin or its rotation are not the causative mechanisms.     

Drugs Prices and Systemic Violence: An Empirical Study

This study proposes an empirical analysis of the relation between the prices of illegal drugs and the use of violence to administrate the markets of illegal drugs. The study hypothesizes that the prices of illegal drugs affect the level of violent crime, since changes in profitability of the drugs’ markets affect the offenders’ expected utility of using violence to operate in these markets. An increase (or decrease) in prices would raise (or reduce) the offenders’ expected utility of making use of violence, for instance, to solve disputes over drugs, to conquer more market shares, to defend ones own market share, in short to make use of systemic violence (Goldstein, P.J. Journal of Drug Issues, 39:143–179, 1985). The study will analyze the relation between the dynamics of cocaine and heroin’s prices and systemic violence in the United States of America and in Europe over two decades. The correlational and inferential analyses do support the hypothesis for certain offenders’ profiles and certain murders’ circumstances.