住宅价格如何影响城镇居民消费——基于状态空间模型的研究

基于时变参数状态空间模型,利用1999年到2016年的季度数据测算了我国住宅价格对城镇居民消费影响的时变特征。结果表明,我国住宅价格对消费的影响整体上呈现微弱的财富效应,住宅价格的MPC位于0.0543到0.1155之间。2004年之前住宅价格上升对消费的影响波动剧烈,2004年后大致呈现先上升,2013年后开始下降的“倒U”型趋势。这说明近年来房价上升对消费的挤出效应迅速增强。鉴于此,从挤出效应传导机制入手,政府应该谨慎平稳调整房价、增加保障性住房供给,并提高城镇化进行中外来人口收入。     

技术创新模式下的社会资本与网络关系的影响研究

近年来,我国生产性服务业正在以服务经济为主导的产业结构中快速迈进,诸多生产性服务中间投入要素也正向制造业融入,二者已进入互动发展阶段。文章立足于社会资本和社会网络关系理论,深入研究了生产性服务业与制造业在不同技术创新互动阶段下,社会资本决定的网络主体强弱关系对企业选择技术创新模式的行为影响,并结合中国塑料城塑料研究院有限公司近年来的技术创新进行了案例分析。由此获得的结论是：制造业是服务业发展的前提和基础,生产性服务业是关联制造业体系的重要补充,服务业体系的发展必然依托于制造业强有力的技术创新;互动发展中的网络主体强弱关系与技术创新模式存在一定相关性,弱关系促进探索式创新,强关系促进利用式创新;不同互动阶段,技术创新也存在不同特征,并具有协同演化趋势。     

集体心理所有权的生成机制与作用机理——基于多层次整合的理论模型构建

集体心理所有权是团队成员对共同目标物的集体性占有感,对激发成员的集体主人翁精神具有重要意义。当前团队工作的盛行使其越来越多地受到理论界与实务界的关注,但缺少对其生成与作用过程机制的整合分析。文章运用文献研究方法,提出了集体心理所有权的多层次整合模型,描述了集体心理所有权可能的生成与作用机制,并从社会认同理论与团队互动过程理论出发,探讨了影响这些路径主要的中介与调节。这一整合模型丰富了集体心理所有权影响效应过程机制的研究,并为未来的实证探索提供了一定的理论方向。     

Examining the good lives model and antisocial behaviour

This study examined the utility of the Good Lives Model (GLM) (Ward, T., &; Stewart, C. A. (2003). The treatment of sex offenders: Risk management and good lives. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 34(4), 353–360. doi:10.1037/0735-7028.34.4.353) in understanding offending behaviour in students. Two hypotheses were made, consistent with the assumptions of the GLM. First, that participants would endorse the importance of the primary goods set out in the GLM. Second, that reports of antisocial behaviour would relate to a lack of effective strategies, or use of maladaptive strategies, to achieve primary goods. Participants (n?=?340, M age?=?20 years) completed a questionnaire (Measure of Life Priorities) assessing their pursuit, valuation, and achievement of the primary human goods as set out in the GLM and a Self-Report of Offending questionnaire. Results supported our hypotheses, and subsequently the assumptions of the GLM. Our findings support the continued use of the GLM as a theoretical and treatment oriented framework in diverse groups engaged in offending behaviour. Future research should continue to ground the GLM in empirical support.     

桂林国际旅游胜地背景下区域旅游合作发展的思考

发展区域旅游合作,是建设桂林国际旅游胜地背景下发展旅游业的战略方向、新时期区域旅游合作具有新特点,桂林旅游发展呈现多区域合作格局特征．桂林区域旅游合作可以采用市场共拓、主导推动、产品整合几种模式、在建设国际旅游胜地背景下,桂林需调整旅游业的发展思路,做好行业规划和规范．制定出更加合理的发展对策、     

What do prisoners want? Current concerns of adult male prisoners

Abstract

Recently, positive approaches to offender rehabilitation, focusing upon offenders’ strengths, have gained prominence. Proponents have criticized existing rehabilitation models as focusing too much on offenders’ deficits. Goal perspectives, which provide a structure for therapy, may unite these two approaches. The Personal Concerns Inventory: Offender Adaptation (PCI:OA) is a semi-structured interview that identifies offenders’ current concerns or goals. The goals identified by a sample of 129 convicted adult male prisoners are reported here. A range of positive, anti-criminal goals were expressed, including stopping offending, improving self-control, finding and keeping jobs, having stable accommodation, quitting drink and drugs, changing support networks, and finding new leisure pursuits. Furthermore, prisoners expressed life-enhancing goals, such as improving their lifestyle, gaining work experience, having good family relationships, gaining skills, and getting fit and healthy. The PCI:OA may prove useful as a motivational procedure, a basis for developing positive, goal-focused interventions, and a tool for outcome evaluation.     

The development of a filter model for prioritising suspects in burglary offences

Abstract

This paper discusses the development of a filter model for prioritizing possible links in dwelling burglary. The filters utilize the central aspects of crime scene information that is available and accessible to investigators in burglary, namely geo-spatial, temporal, behavioural, and dwelling information. The proposed filters were analysed using a sample of 215 dwelling burglaries committed by 43 serial burglars (i.e. 5 offences each) in order to determine the sequence in which the filters should be considered in prioritizing possible linked offences. The results indicated that the following order (i.e. better performance to worse performance) was most effective at linking offences, utilizing: (1) geo-spatial information, (2) temporal aspects, (3) behavioural information and, lastly, (4) dwelling characteristics. Specifically, the results indicated that offences in close proximity to one another should be given priority. Further, any offence occurring within a 28-day span before or after the index offence should be given priority. The paper argues that behavioural and dwelling characteristics are less effective for linking than geo-spatial and temporal information because the former two aspects are influenced significantly by situational and contextual cues on offender decision-making.     

Student/trainee-professional implicit theories of paedophilia

Abstract

This research investigates student/trainee-professional implicit theories of paedophilia and their explanations for the current crisis of paedophilia. The research methodology is based on a previous research design (Sternberg, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49, 607–627, 1985), and consists of two interrelated studies. Study 1 (n=60) develops scales for student/trainee-professional implicit theories of paedophilia and Study 2 (n=188) uses these scales in conjunction with other scales to define the student/trainee-professional implicit theories of paedophilia and to measure the potential explanations for the current crisis of paedophilia. The findings indicate that student/trainee-professional implicit theories of paedophilic personalities (pathology, abusive and mentally disordered old offender) and behaviours (devious, child focused, cognitive distortions, secretive, child lovers, sexual abusers, socially inept and grooming) seem to reflect both previous research and expert opinion. These tentative findings suggest that student/trainee-professionals' implicit theories of paedophilia, and as such the current crisis of paedophilia in modern society, seem to have developed in part from the transfer of expert knowledge (explicit theories), the impact of the media, and social constructionalism; and not from the student/trainee-professionals' individual personality and coping traits.     

Reconstructing and sequencing behaviours in multiple perpetrator rape

Abstract

Much of the existing knowledge base of multiple perpetrator rape (MPR) comes from studies undertaken more than 20 years ago, and thus fails to integrate contemporary perspectives on sexual violence. The current study used Grounded Theory methodology to construct a holistic model of MPR from 15 victim accounts. The model of multiple perpetrator rape (MMPR) included both the actions of the perpetrators and the reactions of the victim in a temporal sequence of 13 categories, 9 of which had sub-categories that allowed for individual differences. Broad themes of MPR were then explored using a total of 101 cases. Each case was coded in the 9 sub-categories where individual differences were allowed from the model. An associative analysis of these sub-categories was then performed using Smallest Space Analysis. Two dominant themes were displayed. The Manipulate theme included two perpetrators who offended sequentially and socialised with the victim. The Force theme did not involve any social interaction, as the force and teamwork of the group enabled the victim to be physically overpowered.     

行政裁量基准的技术范式研究

"裁量基准运动"在实践中开展得如火如荼,理论研究也日渐深入,在防止裁量滥用、构建裁量治理模式方面确实起到了很大的作用。但是,裁量基准能否在实践中真正发挥自己应有的作用和效能,在很大程度上还取决于其制定过程中能否合理地考量各种技术因素。因此,将客观的技术标准植入主观的裁量过程,对影响裁量基准制定的因素予以量化,规划研究它们对于合理估量裁量因素的正义层级,以求改进裁量基准制定技术、保证个案正义将大有裨益。