Interviewing Former 1- and 2-Year Olds About Medical Emergencies 5 Years Later

Five years earlier, 1- and 2-year-old children who had been injured seriously enough to require hospital ER treatment had been recruited from the ER. For this study, as many of these children as could be found participated. The majority of former 1-year olds recalled nothing about these highly stressful events, whereas most former 2-year olds recalled a great deal. For those former 1-year olds who did recall the target events, quality of recall was problematic. In particular, they made considerable source confusions or intrusions into their accounts of details from other related events, producing an account that amalgamated various events into one recollection. Forensic implications are discussed.     

白噪声不同信噪比对语音基音和共振峰的影响研究

目的研究不同强度白噪声对语音特征提取的影响,总结变化规律,为带噪语音的声纹鉴定提供参考。方法对TIMIT连续语音语料库中的录音样本加载不同强度白噪声,使用语音工作站提取纯净语音、不同信噪比带噪语音的基频、共振峰,研究分析白噪声对语音特征参数的影响。结果低噪环境下,语音共振峰相对稳定,增大噪声强度,共振峰出现偏移或者无法检出现象;各阶共振峰抗噪能力不同,低阶共振峰抗噪声能力强,稳定度高,高阶共振峰抗噪能力弱,稳定性差,低阶共振峰抗噪能力优于高阶共振峰;基音在各种噪声强度下稳定度高,具备较强鲁棒性。结论信噪比降低会引起共振峰频率偏移,甚至丢失共振峰;噪声对高阶共振峰影响大于低阶共振峰;基频在噪声环境下具备较高的抗干扰能力,声纹鉴定中应重点分析噪声对语音特征的影响。     

Resident-Defined Neighborhood Mapping: Using GIS to Analyze Phenomenological Neighborhoods

Using a natural quasi-experimental pretest/posttest design, residents in randomly selected homes in a suburb of Los Angeles were surveyed about their perceptions of their neighborhoods with respect to cohesion and sense of community. Responses from the pretest surveys—administered before the construction of a freeway that would bisect the city—were compared to the responses from the posttest survey six years later, administered two years after completion of the freeway. Respondents living adjacent to the new freeway—residents who experienced a fourfold increase in the average decibel levels in their neighborhoods since the freeway opened—reported both a lower sense of community and smaller neighborhood areas as compared to residents not living adjacent to the freeway and as compared to the results from the pretest. The analysis of the data incorporated geographic information system (GIS) software to allow for the analysis of phenomenological neighborhoods—neighborhoods as defined by respondents. This Resident-defined Neighborhood Mapping methodology permitted us to analyze neighborhoods as the respondents outlined them, not as they were preconceived by someone outside the neighborhood. It is suggested that this new methodology may prove useful in advancing the field of neighborhood research by detecting neighborhood-level change that traditional methods may miss.     

Double standards: the verdicts of western election observers in sub-Saharan Africa

This article tests whether Western election observers apply a “double standard” to elections in sub-Saharan Africa. It demonstrates that they do: Western election observers were statistically less likely to allege that significant fraud had occurred in an election in sub-Saharan Africa, than an election of the same quality held elsewhere, throughout the period from 1991 to 2012. This discrepancy exists despite controls for other factors commonly thought to influence the verdicts of observers, such as the strategic interests of Western countries. Yet, there is variation over time. Between 1991 and 2001, the double standard is partly explained by “progress bias,” a tendency to tolerate flawed elections that improved on those held previously. From 2002 to 2012, observers’ application of a double standard is much harder to explain. In that period, the analysis points to several factors that discourage Western observers from alleging fraud, including the risk of triggering electoral violence and a desire to protect relationships with strategic partners. It also identifies factors that make allegations of electoral fraud more likely, including the precedent set by past allegations of fraud and – unexpectedly – higher levels of foreign aid. None of these factors, however, account for the regional discrepancy.     

Elaborations on credibility judgments by professional lie detectors and laypersons: strategies of judgment and justification

Abstract

Laypersons and professional lie detectors differ in biases of credibility judgment. The former are biased toward the truth, whereas the latter are biased toward lies. In an attempt to further understand these differences, the present study focused on the process of credibility judgment, rather than on its outcome. Forty-nine professionals (27 officers, 11 interrogators, 11 intelligence and secret services agents) and 40 laypersons (students) read an account of an event, and judged the credibility of the narrator; namely, the likelihood that he had actually experienced the event. Laypersons tended to believe the narrator more than professionals. The two groups also differed from each other in judgmental strategy (heuristic versus systematic) and justification (of either believing or disbelieving the narrator), and in the interpretation of the very same heuristics. Overall, the data showed that in credibility judgment laypersons and professionals process information differently: analyzing the very same statement, the former tended to consider it as true, whereas the latter tended to consider it as false. These data may partially account for the observed biases in credibility judgment of laypersons and professionals.     

《食品安全法》中“预防原则”之立法检讨——以食品风险监测与评估制度为中心

预防原则是基于危害发生前的保证和防犯的考虑,在我国立法中设置了食品风险监测与评估制度,但是该制度与比较法视野中预防原则的概念和实践存在一定区别,使得食品安全法中风险监测和评估制度的功能发挥受到了一定影响,风险监测和评估制度的完善需要在程序、机制及司法审查诸方面借鉴和参考预防原则的核心内容,以真正促进食品安全的监测和评估制度在实践中的有效运行。     

论我国环境警察制度创建的现实困境与模式选择

建立我国环境警察制度,强化环境监察力度,运用警察权对环境污染进行全方位的规制,有利于环境保护工作在短时间内取得质的飞跃。但是我国现阶段在相关法律文件中还没有规定环境警察制度,在理论研究中成果亦不丰富,导致环境警察制度的确立面临较为严峻的现实困境。在具体的环境执法和环境司法实践中,已经出现了一些有益的探索,环境警察制度创立模式具有多样性。     

睡眠呼吸暂停综合征患者血压结构、夜间睡眠结构的相关性

目的 运用基于时辰的心肺耦合（cardiopulmonary coupling,CPC）睡眠监测技术探讨睡眠呼吸暂停综合征（sleep apnea syndrome,SAS）患者血压结构及夜间睡眠结构的相关性。方法 纳入因睡眠问题就诊的92例患者,采用基于时辰的CPC监测仪和24 h动态血压（ambulatory blood pressure monitoring,ABPM）监测仪,进行同步监测,采集相关数据。根据CPC计算的呼吸紊乱指数（respiratory disturbance index,RDI）,将患者分为非SAS组23例,SAS组69例,分析两组间血压、夜间睡眠结构的差异;并比较不同程度SAS患者血压、夜间睡眠结构的差异;以及SAS患者RDI与夜间子、丑、寅时睡眠结构的相关性。结果 ①SAS组高血压患病率、异常血压节律发生率明显增高;且初入熟睡时间较长,熟睡时间减少,浅睡时间增多。②轻、中、重度SAS患者夜间睡眠结构差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）。③不同程度SAS患者与夜间子、丑、寅时睡眠结构存在部分差异,进一步线性回归分析发现,SAS患者RDI与子时、寅时浅睡眠时间呈正相关。结论 SAS患者高血压患病率、异常血压节律发生率高,存在夜间睡眠结构紊乱;不同程度SAS患者间血压结构差异不明显,睡眠结构的主要差异在于不稳定睡眠增多,而稳定睡眠减少,且SAS严重程度与子、寅时浅睡时间呈正相关。     

Policy Monitoring and Ministerial Survival: Evidence from Multiparty Presidentialism

Studies on policy monitoring and ministerial survival within coalition governments are usually conducted separately. In this study, we bring these topics together and argue that the strategy of coalition partners to oversee the implementation of one another's policies has surprising consequences on the duration of office-holding ministers. Our main theoretical insight suggests that the degree to which ministers behave as faithful agents of the government depends on their expectations about their partners' monitoring behavior, such that when they expect to be under high scrutiny, they moderate their drifting behavior. Using evidence from legislative information requests on the activities of individual ministers over all multiparty cabinets formed in Brazil between 1995 and 2014, we demonstrate that: (1) greater policy monitoring by coalition partners is observed under more ideologically heterogeneous cabinets, and (2) more frequent policy-monitoring efforts by coalition partners lead to a lower ministerial replacement within the government term.     

大数据视域下失业监测机制优化 ：机遇与挑战

为实现“十四五”规划提出的“健全就业需求调查和失业监测预警机制”，基于大数据开展失 业监测具有显著的实践意义。本研究在梳理和总结国内外关于就业失业的理论基础上采用文献分析法、访谈法， 分析基于大数据进行失业监测的应用逻辑，进而梳理国内外相关实践及其存在的突出问题，为失业预警机制的 建立健全提供参考。研究提出基于大数据开展失业监测的优化路径：首先建立政府引导、网站提供数据和学界 提供指导的三方合作机制，其次盘点和分类国内招聘网站等劳动力市场的互联网媒介，进而尽快开发和构建搜 索引擎关键词库，并引入专业的社会智库参与，最后强化政府监管力度。