中国国家利益及其在中国—东盟关系中面临的机遇与挑战

东南亚地区关乎我国崛起过程中祖国和平统一、维护南海主权、确保良好中美关系以及拓展对外贸易等核心及重要国家利益,是推行睦邻周边外交、构建稳固战略依托的命脉和支点。台湾问题、南中国海问题、能源问题、自贸区建设问题及提高软实力问题是双方关系中的关键问题,在这些问题上中国核心及重要国家利益面临重大机遇和一定挑战。正确认识这些机遇与挑战将有助于我们有的放矢地推动双方关系进一步发展进而促进我国国家利益的全面实现。     

The end of a strategic opening? The BNP's window of opportunity in the 2000s and its closure in the 2010s

ABSTRACT

Notwithstanding the endemic failure of extreme-right parties in Britain, the British National Party (BNP) observed a period of electoral growth in the 2000s. After the election of several city councillors nationwide, the BNP experienced an electoral breakthrough in the national ballot of the 2009 European Parliament elections. Yet the BNP's electoral accomplishments dissipated in the early 2010s, fuelling predictions of the party's terminal decline. Within this context, Carvalho seeks to explain the fluctuations observed in the BNP's electoral base in the twentieth-first century by exploring the structure of political opportunities alongside the strategy of the BNP's leadership. Drawing on the convergence thesis and the decline of voting along class lines, he argues that the BNP benefitted from a favourable set of political opportunities in the 2000s, reflecting the decrease in political polarization among mainstream parties, the rise in levels of public distrust, and the intense politicization of the issue of immigration. Despite a general shift to cultural xenophobia, the BNP's leadership remained attached to the ideological traits of neo-fascist parties, including the search for a ‘palingenetic rebirth’ and a national corporatist economic programme. These ideological formulae had important implications for the scope of the BNP's electoral coalition, as Carvalho demonstrates in a review of the secondary literature on the roots of the BNP's electoral support. Consequently, the BNP's electoral growth in the 2000s was the outcome of an interplay between a favourable window of opportunity in British politics and the party's electoral appeal. Carvalho goes on to link the BNP's electoral collapse in the early 2010s with the closing of the aforementioned window after the onset of the financial crisis, a temporary lack of political interest in the issue of immigration, and the formation of the coalition government in 2010.     

"战略时间差"与中国的战略安全

国际关系中的时间包括时间点、时间段和时间过程。从国际博弈的时间长度来看,既有宏观时间的博弈,也有微观时间的博弈,二者都有可能产生战略性的影响。纵观古今中外历史,把握“战略时间差”虽然不一定能做到“不战而屈人之兵”,但能够做到以更小的代价获得博弈的优势地位。中国的战略安全是与战略机遇期联系在一起的,过去四十多年中国发展和大国成长战略机遇的获得主要由于技术革命、权力转移和西方的战略失误三个因素,但中国在新时代需要主动通过把握和运用“战略时间差”来塑造战略机遇。从总体战略来看,中国仍然需要争取和平的国际环境,以彰显中国在走向世界舞台中央时的世界担当;要尽力争取所有的国际博弈尤其中美博弈为正和博弈,以化解既有主导国对正在崛起的中国的担心和不信任;关键还要着力中国的内部发展,这是获得战略机遇期的实质性内容。把握所有“战略时间差”的最终目标是实现中华民族的伟大复兴,在世界舞台上和平崛起。     

Science and Technology and the President's Crime Commission

The U.S. President's Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice added a Task Force on Science and Technology as somewhat of an afterthought because there had then been very little interaction between science and technology and the criminal justice system (CJS). The task force focused on the CJS as a whole and interactions among its parts, with an important emphasis on analysis of the operating systems and on the important potential role of information systems as the technology advanced. The potential applications of contemporary information and electronic technologies is considerable, especially for assessing risk and needs of identified offenders and for providing relevant information wherever needed. There is urgent need for scientific evaluation of many of the positive and negative aspects of the operation of the CJS and of the potential for new technologies.     

人工智能技术应用会减少制造业企业的就业机会吗？ ——以珠江三角洲制造业企业为例

在人工智能背景下，智能化转型成为许多企业的发展方向，然而在智能化设备代替人类工作者的过程中，新技术是否会带来失业问题成为社会讨论的焦点。本研究通过对珠江三角洲部分制造业企业进行问卷调查，并从智能化升级前后的员工总体数量变化、具体部门人数变化、员工工资收入变化以及企业的人力资源需求变化等四个方面进行分析。研究结果显示： (1)人工智能技术对企业员工存在一定程度的替代效应，但 效果并不明显；(2)人工智能技术对部门结构进行重塑，将员工引向与人工智能技术相关的工作岗位上： (3)人工智能技术在企业中的应用对转岗员工收入的提升起到积极作用： (4)人工智能技术的各项优势以及在企业中起到的积极作用并不意味着劳动者被淘汰，反而增加了企业的劳动力需求。     

The Fox and the Hunters: How IC Technologies Change the Crime Race

The article deals with the impact of new technologies on crime. Specifically, the analysis develops two aspects: an analysis of how new technologies are reshaping criminal typologies, dynamics and trends; and an analysis of the most important challenges that legislation, law enforcement and science have to face in order to prevent and combat Information and Communication Technologies (ICT)-related crime. From the methodological perspective, each section opens with a specific question and develops by trying to find a suitable answer. The paper starts by analysing what impact new technologies have on society and crime. It continues by examining how criminal patterns are changing (How does ICT facilitate the commission of new and traditional crimes?) and who these criminals are (Are criminals really going cyber?). It ends by focusing on the other side, on how crime is prevented and combated (How are technologies reshaping the approach and the fight against crime at legal, law enforcement and scientific levels?). The analysis and the results achieved show that new technologies are valuable means in the hand of both criminals and institutions involved in the fight against crime. There is thus an urgent need to improve knowledge about the phenomena, and develop new paradigms and theories together with best practices.     

全球金融危机对我国海外引才的机遇、挑战和对策

华尔街刮起的金融风暴引发了全球经济危机,继而导致全球企业裁员潮,使全球人才供需发生变化,这对于正处在经济转型升级关键时期的我国来说,既带来了抄底海外人才为我所用的机遇,又面临了人才吸引的诸多挑战。客观分析海外引才可能面临的挑战,对我们引进和有效使用高层次、高技能、高质量且符合实践需要的人才意义重大。     

关于20世纪社会主义的几点思考

探索 2 1世纪的社会主义 ,必须珍惜 2 0世纪社会主义运动的历史经验。 2 0世纪落后国家发生的社会主义革命有其内在必然性和历史合理性。社会主义建设实践的历史启示是 ,必须准确判定现实社会主义所处的历史阶段 ;必须适时实行理论和实践的重心向现代化建设的转移 ;必须正确认识计划和市场的关系 ,探索市场经济和公有制结合的具体机制 ;必须学习和借鉴发达国家一切有利于现代化同时又不具有内在的剥削性质的做法。邓小平理论在上述问题上的开拓和突破 ,形成马克思主义发展史的一个里程碑。信息革命和全球化对社会主义既是机遇更是挑战 ,它可能使社会主义代替资本主义的过程更加漫长和艰巨 ,但共产主义必然代替资本主义的结论仍然是科学真理。 2 1世纪社会主义将以更新更成熟的面貌出现在世界上。