西部经济增长过程中的FDI缺口及其机会损失研究

对西部FDI增长要素效应以及增长函数的研究表明,西部FDI吸收量存在较大缺口,使得西部在经济增长过程中存在较大的增长数量和增长质量的机会损失。     

非公有制经济发展的机遇与挑战——评析“非公经济36条”

2005年2月,国务院出台的"非公经济36条"首次以中央政府文件的形式,提出了促进非公有制经济发展的多项措施.它不仅给非公有制经济带来了机遇,同时也提出了挑战.放宽市场准入是其一大亮点.促进非公有制经济发展,首先要以非公有制经济打破公用事业垄断作为突破口,同时,我国应该完善非公有制经济保护机制,重视其法律体系的构建,并鼓励地方制定具体办法.     

Theoretical and Empirical Work on the Relationship Between Unemployment and Crime

Part of the ongoing debate between Cantor and Land and Greenberg centers on differing opinions about the question of interest in Cantor and Land (1985). We begin this article with our opinion that Cantor and Land's theory relates changes in the business cycle to changes in the aggregate rate of crime. We then question whether year-to-year changes adequately reflect changes in the business cycle, which last on average 4 years, and we refer to an article by Cook and Zarkin (1985) which presents an alternative method of measuring business cycle changes. We also discuss how Greenberg's use of cointegration provides an alternative way of addressing the difficult statistical problem of nonstationarity without resorting to first differences. Our final contribution involves noticing that opportunity and motivational theories of crime can be structurally identified by focusing on different types of crime rather than temporal lags. We demonstrate this idea by splitting car theft into joyriding and theft for profit. We show that joyriding appears to be driven by opportunity, while the causal structure of theft for profit is less clear.     

The point break effect: an examination of surf,crime, and transitory opportunities

Opportunity theories of crime suggest that crime is highly specific and concentrated in time and space. Using these theories as a framework, this paper seeks to examine the transitory nature of crime. This hypothesis was tested using data from a coastal city in California to examine the relationship between surf conditions (measured at five daily time points) and number of crime incidents (n = 16,075). Crime totals were aggregated at the street segment level (n = 4551) for each day in 2011. These data were modeled using a series of panel negative binomial models, clustered by census block group. The findings suggest that surf conditions had an effect on the likelihood of crime incidents, but these effects were time specific. Favorable surf conditions were associated with increases in crime only between 2:30 pm and 5:29 pm. Additionally, locations closer to surf spots were associated with more crime, relative to locations farther away. Closer examination of micro-geographies aids in understanding how systematic shifts in routine activities affect the frequency and location of crime, and allows crime prevention to be more specialized and efficient. Adding to the extant understanding of hot times and opportunity structures will enable more effective allocation of resources and predictive policing efforts.     

委托代理分析:对警务人员有效管理的新理念

警察机构作为政府的组成部分具有典型的科层制结构。由此产生了大量的委托代理关系并带来了管理上的低效率。其主要原因是不对称信息的存在 ,机会成本的增加 ,规则制度的失灵。解放这一问题的管理新理念是 :一要正视下属人员的正当利益要求 ,在设计组织目标时力图协调好组织整体目标与个人目标的关系 ,使下属人员在追求自身利益最大化的同时客观上也能促进组织目标的实现 ;二要创建“合作型”的组织文化 ,在和谐合作的组织文化氛围中促进组织目标的实现。     

Do intergovernmental transfers affect the distribution of manufacturing production across regions in federal countries? Theory and evidence for Argentina

The effect of changes in the distribution of top-to-bottom intergovernmental transfers on the location of manufacturing production is analysed using a modified version of the footloose capital model. An increase in the share of transfers received by a region increases its share of manufacturing production the larger are transaction costs; the larger is the share of transfers going directly to consumers; the larger is the share of manufacturing consumption vis-à-vis non-tradable consumption; and the easier consumers can substitute among manufacturing varieties. Using data for Argentina for 1983-2005, the empirical analysis appears to support the existence of two distinctive regimes, with smaller/poorer provinces benefiting in terms of the location of manufacturing production as a response to an increase in transfers. Also, for these provinces, the benefits are greater if they are politically aligned with the federal government, especially through the receipt of discretionary transfers. For large/rich provinces, the evidence is less conclusive.     

National past and populism: the re-elaboration of fascism and its impact on right-wing populism in Western Europe

Abstract

The electoral performance of right-wing populism depends on the type of re-elaboration of countries’ national past and their collective memories. Complementing socio-economic and political-institutional factors, the article analyses cultural opportunity structures. Given the link between fascist and populist visions of power, it shows that different collective memories of the fascist past and World War II open up or close down the space for right-wing populist parties. Theoretically, the typology includes four types of re-elaboration: culpabilisation, victimisation, heroisation and cancellation. Results of a comparative analysis of eight West European countries based on a novel measurement method point to (1) culpabilisation and heroisation as types of re-elaboration limiting right-wing populist parties’ electoral performance, (2) cancellation as a type having an undetermined effect, and (3) victimisation as a type triggering the success of right-wing populist parties.     

经济全球化与我国经济安全的法律保护

经济全球化是当今世界经济发展的重要趋势 ,是不以人的意志为转移的。毋庸置疑 ,经济全球化对世界经济的发展具有积极作用。但它也对发展中国家的经济主权、经济安全等方面不可避免地产生了负面影响。我国作为经济迅速发展的发展中国家 ,既要积极融入全球化浪潮 ,又要注意用法律维护国家的经济安全。     

BUSINESS CYCLES AND STREET CRIME

This study examines the influence of business cycle fluctuations on street crime in the conceptual framework of Cantor and Land's(1985) seminal work distinguishing between opportunity and motivation effects. The analysis contributes to the literature three ways. First, we use cross‐section/time series data, which has several important advantages over simple time‐series or cross‐section data of previous studies. Second, it introduces a new and broader measure of business cycle conditions, one that more faithfully captures the logic of Cantor and Land's framework than previous measures do. Third, it focuses on the large decline in street crime of the 1990s, a central issue facing criminologists. Statistical models indicate that the strong economy of the 1990s reduced all four index property crimes and robbery by reducing criminal motivation. Business cycle growth produced no significant opportunity effect for any of the crimes studied.     

加入WTO对西安旅游业的影响及其应对策略

旅游业是西安最突出优势和发展方向之一。我国加入WTO,既给西安的旅游业带来了前所未有的机遇,也带来了很大的挑战。因此,西安旅游业应从实际情况出发,认真研究,积极应对,以加快旅游企业市场机制的建立,完善与旅游业相关的各项法规和规章,搞好定位,加紧开发旅游新业务,完善旅游服务体系,提高服务质量,重视和加强旅游人才的培养,重视市场宣传机构建设,进一步开展旅游促销,利用最新的科学技术推动旅游行业的进一步发展。