To Denounce,or Not To Denounce: Survey Experiments on Diplomatic Quarrels

Despite widespread concern over heated diplomatic debates and growing interest in public diplomacy, it is still incompletely understood what type of message is more effective for gaining support from foreign public, or the international society, in situations where disputing countries compete in diplomatic campaigns. This study, through multiple survey experiments, uncovers the effect of being silent, issuing positive justification, and negative accusation, in interaction with the opponent’s strategy. We demonstrate that negative verbal attacks “work” and undermine the target’s popularity as they do in electoral campaigns. Unlike domestic electoral campaigns, however, negative diplomacy has little “backlash” and persuades people to support the attacker. Consequently, mutual verbal fights make neither party more popular than the other. Nevertheless, this does not discourage disputants from waging verbal fights due to the structure similar to the one-shot prisoner’s dilemma. We also find that positive messages are highly context-dependent—that is, their effects greatly depend on the opponent’s strategy and value proximity between the messenger and the receiver.     

A look inside an emerging nuclear supplier. Advocacy coalitions and change in Argentine foreign nuclear policy

What light can foreign policy analysis (FPA) shed on how and when the balance of power between domestic coalitions in foreign nuclear policymaking changes and how these different balances directly affect policy outcomes? Drawing on interviews with scientists, technologists and career diplomats, this comprehensive examination of Argentine nuclear exports policy as public policy aims to depict when and how policies varied between 1976 and 2004, due to shifts in the balance amongst advocacy coalitions, albeit of incentives and constraints placed by international and institutional nuclear environments. The article provides a better account of how Argentine nuclear foreign policy changed under the influence of four competitive and contrasting advocacy coalitions: the pro-import substitution and protectionist coalition, the pro-technological autonomy and South-South trade coalition, the pro-business and commercial openness coalition and the antinuclear and pro-environment coalition.     

中国特色大国外交的传承与创新:命运共同体的视角

新中国成立70年来,中国外交经历了革命外交、经济外交、和谐世界外交到命运共同体外交等不同时期,这一过程同时也显示了从道义共同体、利益共同体、区域发展共同体到人类命运共同体的逻辑发展。党的十八大以来,中国特色大国外交全面铺开,构建人类命运共同体成为新时代中国外交的新旗帜、新任务和新目标。构建人类命运共同体既是对前几任领导人外交思想的传承和延续,更是新一代领导人奋发有为的开拓与创新:开启了大国外交新时代,开垦了全域外交新空间,开发了主场外交新形式,开辟了“一带一路”外交新平台,标志着中国外交的跨越性升华,彰显了新时代大国外交的中国特色、中国风格和中国气派。     

Grading greatness: evaluating the status performance of the BRICS

An impressive portfolio of case-study research has now demonstrated how and through what means the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) countries have sought higher social status. However, this field of research lacks systematic means of evaluating this status-seeking. This article fills this lacuna by developing a mixed-methods framework enabling scholars to zoom in and compare individual states’ relative status performance. Using diplomatic representation as a proxy for status recognition and comparing it to a country’s status resources (wealth), the framework indicates how successfully countries have generated recognition from the international society. The findings show that China’s economic ascent has been matched by increased recognition, and that South Africa enjoyed an almost immediate ‘status bounce’ following apartheid, turning it from a pariah to a significant overperformer. Russia should be understood as an ‘overperforming status-dissatisfied power’ while India’s status performance has been around ‘par’ for a country of its economic resources. Lastly, Brazil underperforms more than any of the other BRICS, especially since its democratic transition. The findings highlight considerable variance in the type and duration of gaps between status resource and recognition and suggests that rather than treating these as ‘inconsistencies’ awaiting correction, they can and should be accounted for by case study analyses.     

Indian health diplomacy in East Africa: Exploring the potential in pharmaceutical manufacturing

Indian engagement in East Africa’s health sector is multifaceted, comprehensive and involves national and subnational actors. It includes exports of low cost generics, building health infrastructure, aid, technical assistance and hosting medical tourists among others. This paper, based on extensive fieldwork conducted with multiple stakeholders in Kenya and Ethiopia, provides an overview of the various components of India’s co-operation in the East African health sector and identifies pharmaceutical manufacturing as a space for Indian actors to leverage their strengths. It focuses on two case studies of manufacturers: a third-generation company in Kenya owned by members of the Indian diaspora, and a newly formed subsidiary of an Indian corporation in Ethiopia. These case studies inform the larger debate on India’s health diplomacy on the continent and the myriad ways in which the Indian state as well as corporates can enhance existing co-operation.     

安全焦虑、信号传递与中国对东南亚国家的战略安抚

对于崛起的中国而言,采取系统性战略安抚,树立自我克制的负责任大国形象有助于赢得周边国家信任。然而,在二十多年睦邻外交实践中,东南亚国家始终对崛起的中国的意图感到焦虑,这种担忧因地理邻近性与实力不对称而变得更加敏感。2008年以来,东南亚国家对中国"核心利益"话语、逐步增多的外交制裁以及多边倡议给予了较大关注。面对东南亚国家上升的安全忧虑,中国外交主动释放安抚信号增信释疑。与强制策略不同,安抚策略关注如何从正面激励换取他国的信任。立足于对现有文献的批判性整合,重新梳理善意信号的呈现形式(情感-物质)与成本来源(内生-外生)两大维度,可以从逻辑上生成四种睦邻安抚信号的表达路径:睦邻话语、相互依赖、无私援助与制度约束。面对中国的吸引与安抚,东南亚国家也会主动进行试探与甄别,以讨价还价、社会化、对冲试探和制度牵制四种方式,对中国释放的安抚信号进行评估。由于安抚信号的可信度评估具有主观性,东南亚国家对中国安抚信号存在不同理解,中国外交需换位思考并理解东南亚国家的试探心理。     

日本对华公共外交实施困境分析

鉴于日本对华公共外交因中日两国间的历史问题和海洋权益争端问题而逐步凸显出相应的实施困境,长期以来日本对华公共外交处于持续低迷的状态。日本对华公共外交的实施困境表现为内外制约性、迟滞性、顽固性与整体失调性。随着日本对华公共外交实施困境的长期延续,其在对华政策与中日关系方面的作用随之显现,并伴有扩散效应。对于实现日本对华公共外交的破解,日本需要积极改善对华政策中的相关节点,为中日关系真正的发展做出必要的准备与贡献。     

新加坡的中国新移民形象：当地的视野与政策的考量

本文首先介绍上世纪90年代后新加坡人口结构之改变,接着分析本地新加坡人对中国新移民的看法,然后讨论新加坡移民政策的出发点,即从控制新移民涌人到整合团结现有移民。本文认为,同宗同族的民族观和共同文化源流在塑造新加坡人对新移民的看法时作用甚微,政治上和经济上的实用主义才是影响公众对新移民的态度和政策抉择的最重要因素。在这一大框架之下,公共外交能够对中国人、华人新移民和中国国家的国际形象改变发挥一定的积极作用。     

和平利用海洋与海上军事行动

和平利用海洋是1982年《联合国海洋法公约》的主题。《公约》通过限定海洋活动形式、规定海洋争端解决方法以及倡导加强国际合作的方式促进海洋的和平利用。和平利用海洋并不意味着禁止一切海上军事行动,但也确实对海上军事行动构成一定的限制。为实现海洋的和平利用,各国的海上军事行动应符合《联合国宪章》、《公约》和其他国际法规则的规定。此外,加强海上军事互信与安全合作也是解决有关国家海上“安全困境”,维护海洋和平的重要途径。     

资源民族主义语境下日本能源外交的新策略

在石油价格高企时代,资源民族主义日益膨胀。比邻而居的日本在能源外交之路上推出了诸多新举措：一是快速提升与中亚国家的合作关系,以期进一步拓宽能源进口源;二是在保持与中东传统友好关系基础上,通过合作方式和合作项目等方面的策略创新,寄希深度强化双方关系;三是积极与中、印等能源消费大国合作,以求提升国家形象。日本能源外交战略上的新策略,既非一朝一夕的构想,亦非既定方针,而是其外交经验的“积渐所至”。