Can umbrella parties survive? The decline of the Indian National Congress

This paper analyses the defeat of the Congress party in the India’s 2014 election in which it plummeted to its lowest ever vote share (19 per cent) and seat tally (44 of 543). We argue that the defeat is the end result of a gradual decline punctuated by recoveries that began much earlier. We show that the Congress was gradually becoming less competitive in more and more states and constituencies as indicated by its falling to third position or worse. We try to relate this to the desertion of the party by social groups that once supported it in a number of states and other factors. The larger question is whether a Congress-type, encompassing, umbrella party can survive the sharpened politicisation of social cleavages, in the Indian case, religious, caste and regional cleavages since such a party will tend to lose out to parties based on religious, caste and regional identities in identitarian outbidding.     

‘Two children to make ends meet’: the ideal family size,parental responsibilities and costs of children on two sides of the Iron Curtain during the post-war fertility decline

One of the major corollaries of the post-war fertility boom and decline is that two-child families became common across Europe after the 1970s. Despite the general agreement on the convergence of fertility trends, there is still little understanding of how this change took place in a comparative perspective of Western and Eastern Europe, which at that time were characterised by Cold War tensions of different ideological regimes. This study addresses this aspect by focusing on individual decisions around childbearing, child-rearing and family size. Based on 104 oral histories from Switzerland and Ukraine, this study illuminates that the urban setting provided parents with a similar set of constraints and opportunities, which eventually resulted in strikingly similar perceptions of the costs of childrearing on two sides of the Iron Curtain. Individuals’ motives to postpone first birth in Switzerland and second birth in Ukraine rested on a similar aspiration to invest in the well-being of children by ensuring material security for the family. This aim was increasingly achieved through female labour-force participation and adoption of modern contraception – the pill in Switzerland and abortion in Ukraine. While the timing of returning to the labour market and the share of women working after entering parenthood might have varied across the two contexts, a good mother became increasingly defined in both contexts in terms of providing emotionally and financially for her children. Although the introduction of modern birth control methods allowed couples to plan family size more carefully, it also made Swiss and Ukrainian women increasingly carry the major costs and actual burden of birth control. Altogether, this study challenges the common assumption around the persistence of strikingly different demographic realities in post-war Western and Eastern Europe by uncovering the mechanisms behind the stabilisation of family size around the two-child family ideal.     

Postcards from the Edge? Setting the Suburban Scene

This introduction highlights four themes about the politics of suburbia which are developed in the collection. First, what constitutes suburbia is multiple and constantly changing. This is reflected in diverse and evolving architectures and economic conditions. Second, the idea of the suburb as synonymous with the pinnacle of betterment is taking a battering as suburbs are now looking the worse for wear. ‘Just about managing’ families and the ‘squeezed middle’ are to be found in the suburbs. Third, in post‐2016 Britain, Brexit is the new political fault‐line where regional variations manifest themselves, and this is reflected in distinctive suburban politics, producing strange bedfellows spanning Surrey and Sunderland. Fourth, voting patterns reflect the dynamism of the modern suburb. The social and physical environment of the suburb may shape attitudes to some extent, but incomers have brought their politics with them.     

Squatting for Survival: Precarious Housing in a Declining U.S. City

Despite severely depressed property markets, housing in declining U.S. cities can be surprisingly unaffordable for poor residents. Yet the characteristics of decline, such as abundant vacant property and constrained economic/political conditions, also provide opportunity for squatting. This article explores survival squatting—illegal occupation of property as a means for procuring suitable housing by marginalized residents. Drawing on a 4.5-year ethnography in Detroit, I examine the mechanisms by which people strategically choose squatting as a method of sheltering in the context of local conditions, and the experiences and conditions of this practice. I situate these empirical findings within a broader discussion comparing squatting and other forms of housing that have received considerable attention by researchers (e.g., shelter use, sleeping rough, doubling up). Squatting is particularly risky and unstable, and often very hidden. Substandard housing conditions prevail, and substance abuse is common. Squatting may have negative implications for child welfare, but may also provide measures of independence, self-determination, and comfort for illegal occupiers. There is a critical need for further research in this area, both to inform comprehensive housing policies and to anticipate how squatters’ well-being is impacted by other urban initiatives, such as blight demolition.     

Families and households of the poor: The 19th-century Slovenian gostači

The present study examines the position of day laborers, a social category still awaiting comparative study by family historians. In 19th-century Slovenian sources these laborers, called gosta?i, were a very mobile group that did not own property; they could be married or single and could be involved in various occasional jobs, agricultural or industrial, skilled or unskilled. By comparing two communities (one agrarian, the other centered on iron production), the study shows that the living and working arrangements of gosta?i were profoundly affected by the economy and by natural resources. They therefore developed different residential patterns, though in neither case did their families constitute a part of the owner's sub-household in the Laslettian sense. The study concludes that in the 19th century this poor social group should not be treated as a homogenous workforce but as flexible and dynamic.     

Religion,masculinity and fertility decline

This paper provides the sketch of a new mechanism explaining the delay of Catholic fertility, namely the changing norms of masculinity and fatherhood, through a comparative study of the first fertility transition in Switzerland (1880–1930).

Comparative analysis of religious discourse attests to striking differences in norms of respectable masculinity. In the Protestant canton, men were especially targeted and strongly incited to change their sexual behaviour and limit their offspring in order to comply with a new model of the good husband and father. The religious teachings had an impact due to the social position of the persons enouncing the norms, to the efficient diffusion reaching the majority of men, and to the effective sanctioning, as the example of pastoral enquiries demonstrates. In the Catholic canton by contrast, men were not specifically addressed; the religious discourse supported the husband's rights to frequent sexual intercourse and encouraged him to trust Providence to bring up many children, thus sustaining high levels of fertility. The political repression of public discourse on sexuality defeated every attempt of contesting the husband's marital rights and the Catholic doctrine of procreation. Sexual taboos were particularly severe for women and their total ignorance of sexual matters weakened their bargaining power in fertility decisions.

In the last part of the paper, using quantitative methods, we tried to demonstrate that these norms and mechanisms did indeed influence men's behaviour in the Protestant sample. For this purpose, we measured comparatively the results of some indicators introduced to capture the impact of the norms of respectable masculinity, regarding men's responsibility in contraception and men's ability to maintain dependent children. We hope thus to strengthen the position of a growing number of scholars who state that historical demographers cannot avoid incorporating gender into their explanations of historical trends of fertility and who foster the bridging of qualitative and quantitative methods.     

Paying the levy: Taxable wealth in Bridgetown,Barbados, 1680–1715

Differential fertility can be attributed to economic and cultural factors, but the family also plays an important role. Fertility behavior may be transmitted from parents to children through heritable dispositions or via socialization. Previous research has shown, however, that the expression of genetic effects depends on the interplay with the environment. In this article we take a long-term view and examine how the different mechanisms shifted over time and across social and local contexts on the basis of a large-scale database containing 100 thousand sibling pairs born between 1810 and 1870 in the Dutch province of Zeeland, a society undergoing demographic transition and industrialization. Corroborating earlier research, we find a significant increase in the expression of heritabilities and a fading of social influence for women born after the 1840s, who started their reproductive careers during the historical fertility decline in this region. Our study points out that the ‘social control’ of fertility was particularly reduced for women born in towns, women originating from the urban or rural laboring classes, and women from communities with a relatively liberal religious climate. Our findings are in line with research emphasizing the important role played by women in decision-making processes around childbearing, and could indicate the conditions that enhanced women's position in household bargaining during the historical fertility decline.     

‘Were women present at the demographic transition?’ A question revisited

In this contribution I argue that the future of historical demography has much to gain from the incorporation of women and gender into research on the (first) fertility decline in the Western world. Gender, as an explanatory concept, can help construct more complex models for fertility decline in which economic, social and cultural explanations can be connected and which are more sensitive to diversity, to historical context, and to contingency. By perceiving men and women as gendered identities who may have different interests in reproductive outcomes, we will not only restore the necessary agency to historical actors, but we will also see more clearly how many important questions on the fertility decline still remain unanswered.     

以武力取代影响力:美国软实力的削弱

自布什政府上台以来,美国在国际事务中奉行单边主义政策.阿富汗战争后,美国穷兵黩武,不顾国际社会的和平努力,发动了伊拉克战争.其放纵单边主义和军事本能的做法招致了国际社会的强烈反对和不满,国家的影响力和吸引力受到重创.伊战中的情报失真事件和虐囚丑闻更使其恶化的国际形象雪上加霜,美国的软实力在不断受到削弱.     

Studying New York City’s Crime Decline: Methodological Issues

Methodological issues that must be considered in doing research on the New York City crime drop include the choice of a spatial unit of analysis, the choice of a mathematical representation of the processes responsible for the drop, and the choice of estimators. This paper considers the strengths and weaknesses of a time series analysis of data for New York alone, a panel analysis for the city’s precincts, and a panel analysis for a sample of cities, for studying the drop. The possibilities and limitations of precinct-level data are illustrated with annual precinct data for New York between 1988 and 2001. The paper considers static and dynamic fixed effects panel models estimated in various ways, including difference and systems generalized method of moments. These analyses find no evidence that misdemeanor arrests reduced levels of homicide, robbery, or aggravated assaults. Felony arrests reduced robberies, but only to a modest degree. Most of the decline in these three felonies had other causes.