‘Were women present at the demographic transition?’ A question revisited

In this contribution I argue that the future of historical demography has much to gain from the incorporation of women and gender into research on the (first) fertility decline in the Western world. Gender, as an explanatory concept, can help construct more complex models for fertility decline in which economic, social and cultural explanations can be connected and which are more sensitive to diversity, to historical context, and to contingency. By perceiving men and women as gendered identities who may have different interests in reproductive outcomes, we will not only restore the necessary agency to historical actors, but we will also see more clearly how many important questions on the fertility decline still remain unanswered.     

Studying New York City’s Crime Decline: Methodological Issues

Methodological issues that must be considered in doing research on the New York City crime drop include the choice of a spatial unit of analysis, the choice of a mathematical representation of the processes responsible for the drop, and the choice of estimators. This paper considers the strengths and weaknesses of a time series analysis of data for New York alone, a panel analysis for the city’s precincts, and a panel analysis for a sample of cities, for studying the drop. The possibilities and limitations of precinct-level data are illustrated with annual precinct data for New York between 1988 and 2001. The paper considers static and dynamic fixed effects panel models estimated in various ways, including difference and systems generalized method of moments. These analyses find no evidence that misdemeanor arrests reduced levels of homicide, robbery, or aggravated assaults. Felony arrests reduced robberies, but only to a modest degree. Most of the decline in these three felonies had other causes.     

Could Innovations in Policing have Contributed to the New York City Crime Drop even in a Period of Declining Police Strength?: The Case of Stop,Question and Frisk as a Hot Spots Policing Strategy

Available data make it impossible to reach strong conclusions about the role of policing in the New York crime decline. Instead, we examine whether innovations implemented in New York fit with what is known about effective policing strategies. Our main analysis focuses on how the New York City Police Department (NYPD) could have continued to contribute to the crime drop over the last decade when the number of police declined significantly. We examine geographic data on crime and stop, question and frisks (SQFs) to show that SQFs are concentrated at crime hot spots. We also show that the NYPD increased these specific hot spots policing strategies despite declining numbers. In our discussion, we speculate on whether this “doing more with less” could be an explanation for the continued crime drop in New York, noting the limitations of drawing conclusions from existing data. We also raise concerns about possible backfire effects of SQF hot spots approaches.