Crises and unpredictability in developing countries

Developing countries have suffered most of the financial crises in the context of the process of economic and financial globalisation. Both current and previous crises have revealed that unpredictability is a feature common to all the episodes which occurred during the process of globalisation. Although certain alarms went off, any of those external financial crises were actually predicted by the advanced methods in use for prediction and country risk analysis. Taking into consideration the information above, the aim of this paper is to check the ability to foresee external financial crises in developing countries of both the country risk index published by Euromoney and the Credit Ratings variable included therein. We have focused on the external financial crises that took place between 1992 and 2011, that is, in a full globalisation era. The results are negative. It appears that neither the index nor the sovereign ratings are able to reflect early enough the vulnerabilities that arise previously to the setting off the crisis episodes. This leads us to conclude that the existing models of country risk have limits. Thus, it would necessary to develop new instruments to measure this risk, considering uncertainty as an essential feature of the current economic and financial environment.     

当前金融犯罪的主要特点与对策分析

当前经济犯罪的危害越来越严重,在经济犯罪中又以金融犯罪危害更为突出。目前金融犯罪大案、要案大幅度上升,作案手段呈智能化、多样化、隐蔽化,危害重大,严重影响了社会稳定,给社会造成了不可估量的经济损失,更对社会经济秩序乃至整个社会秩序产生了严重破坏。因此,制定科学、有效及切实可行的打击对策是当前公安工作的当务之急。     

科学发展观视野下地方财经高校科研管理研究

科学发展观是中国特色社会主义理论体系的最新内容,对高校科研管理工作具有重大指导意义。按照科学发展观的要求进行科研管理,有利于促进高校科研与市场接轨、提高科研成果的转化率、更好地为社会生活服务。以科学发展观指导科研管理工作,就是要在全面、准确理解科学发展观的科学内涵和精神实质的基础上,结合高校科研工作实际,按照科学发展观的要求,积极推进科研管理创新,促进高校科研水平不断提高。     

Resettling Refugees in Rural and Regional Australia: Learning from Recent Policy and Program Initiatives

Conscious policy and program support for the resettlement of refugees in regional and rural areas is a relatively recent trend in Australia. Resettlement is a complex process that hinges on the establishment of viable communities. This review suggests that its outcomes, especially for refugee communities, are potentially mixed. However, an appropriately resourced, well managed and well planned refugee resettlement program can potentially provide beneficial outcomes for refugees and host communities. This article draws on existing empirical data and contributions made at a VicHealth Roundtable in late 2007 to thematically explore the challenges facing rural and regional resettlement programs. Given that settlement is a dynamic process and the approaches to rural and regional settlement are evolving, this article provides 12 propositions for a more effective and integrated approach to policy and practice.     

金融风暴下的"农民工失业潮"及对策分析

金融风暴的冲击使我国农民工就业面临新的困难和挑战,新形势下的农民工就业问题受到社会的普遍关注。本文首先介绍由金融风暴引发的“农民工失业潮”,其次从加强农民工就业能力培训、鼓励农民工回乡创业等五个方面探讨了当前促进农民工就业与发展的对策：     

金融危机中的佛教担当

在金融危机愈演愈烈之时,2009年春节佛教寺院相对于往年香火更旺。经济危机下的中国人也需要宗教的抚慰。佛教可以从教义、修持、仪轨和慈善活动等方面发挥作用,帮助人们化解因金融危机而造成的精神压力和心理问题,促进社会的稳定与和谐发展。     

基于现金流量的财务风险预警体系探析

国内外研究表明,现金流量在财务困境企业与非财务困境企业之间有显著差异,现金流量具有财务预警能力。从现金流量的角度,在对现有的财务风险预警模型比较分析的基础上,研究建立基于现金流量的财务风险预警体系是非常必要的。     

日本、印度金融支持农村基础设施建设的经验及启示

日本、印度两国在农村基础设施建设过程中,有多种金融机构提供多样化的金融服务,如日本的农协、农林渔业金融公库,印度的国家农业和农村开发银行等,为农村基础设施建设提供了贷款、担保等服务,确保了农村基础设施建设的金融需求。日本、印度的金融支持农村基础设施建设的实践给我国提供了有益的启示。     

Regional transport challenges within the Southern African Development Community and their implications for economic integration and development

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) seeks to deepen economic integration among its members through the SADC free trade area that came into effect in January 2008. The thrust for a progressive reduction of tariff and no-tariff barriers, which the market integration model emphasises, has serious implications for the impact of transport and communication systems on economic integration and development within SADC.

Transport and communications systems have an important bearing on economic integration and development because they can be significant non-tariff barriers. The SADC Protocol on Transport, Communications and Meteorology is the instrument through which transport and communications constraints are to be addressed. Through this protocol, some institutions have been established and others proposed to ensure that projects designed to deepen economic integration and development are implemented effectively.

The neo-functional integration approach is a relevant theoretical framework for analysing transport and communications issues and for implementing joint sectoral projects in areas that impact on overcoming development-related deficiencies in production and infrastructure. Transport and communications fall in this category of projects and the SADC region has benefited from functional co-operation in this sector.

As integration proceeds, polarisation of industries could occur, raising concerns about the distributional effects of economic integration as this affects development. However, polarisation is not inevitable: it depends on transport costs. This might seriously address transport and communications constraints because, if these are greatly reduced and eventually removed, weaker SADC countries need not lose industries to the core with the SADC Free Trade Area in place.     

金融危机下中东欧转型模式再评估

新兴市场国家经济与政治体制转型是转型问题研究的焦点,而中东欧国家的转型模式也作为一个范例持续得到来自理论和实证研究上的关注.本研究以金融危机发生、演化为背景,旨在检测金融危机背景下中东欧国家的整体经济表现与金融市场表现,并通过分析对国际学术界公认的"转型优等生"中东欧国家的转型模式进行再评估和反思.