How do mayors get elected? The causal effects of pre-electoral coalitions on mayoral election outcomes in Indonesia

ABSTRACT

What determines the election of mayors? The extent to which pre-electoral coalitions (PECs) influence mayoral election outcomes has not yet been subject to empirical analysis, despite the question’s fundamental theoretical and practical relevance. This note uses regression discontinuity methods to identify the causal effects of PECs on mayoral election results in Indonesia. The study finds that candidates backed by PECs comprising political parties that control council seat shares exceeding first-round mayoral electoral vote thresholds are 14–18 percentage points more likely to win those elections than their counterparts supported by smaller-sized PECs. The analysis determines that PECs are especially helpful in getting non-incumbent candidates elected, although they have no apparent impact on incumbents’ electoral success. PECs can assist candidates in gaining office, therefore, but they are established under corrupt conditions. Ultimately, governance issues surrounding the formation and functioning of PECs impose significant constraints on the development of local democracy in Indonesia.     

Pain tolerance: Economic voting in the Czech Republic

Several theoretical explanations have been proposed to explain the mixed evidence of economic voting in post-communist countries. Using aggregate-level data, this article relaxes the assumption of parameter constancy and employs rolling regression analysis to track fluctuations in parameters over time. The results contradict the existing theories of economic voting in postcommunist countries. As an alternative explanation, the article suggest that voters have a level of pain tolerance below which the economy will not play a role in evaluations of the government; voters will use economic indicators to punish and reward incumbent government only if the economic indicators exceed their pain tolerance. For example, in the Czech Republic, voters will not start punishing the incumbent party until inflation climbs above 13.44%. However, Czech voters are less tolerant of unemployment and will punish the incumbent when unemployment exceeds 8.82%.     

基于主成分-聚类分析的农村地区生活水准分类——以吉林省为例

该文提出农业生产活力、社会经济活力水平是影响农村生活水准区域分类的2个主要因素，并选取地区经济力、农业投入力、产业发展力等指标作为衡量标准，利用分层聚类分析方法，对吉林省县域地区进行区域分类，分为地域特性差异较大的4类地区。针对各区域特征、生活水准发展现状对比，在提高生活水准的发展模式上提出有针对性的思路和政策建议。     

压力过程理论视角下失智老人的家庭照顾者的负担研究

失智老人的家庭照顾是长期压力性事件，照顾者需要承担很大的负担。本研究将界定照顾者的负担内涵，筛选出影响照顾者负担的因素。本研究基于压力过程理论定义负担包括压力源和主观负荷，其中压力源包含社会人口学因素、照顾投入、获得的社会支持、以及与疾病相关的因素。研究采用定量研究方法，共获取了271组失智老人及其家庭照顾者的数据，采用逐步回归方法来分析和筛选影响照顾者主观负荷的压力源。研究发现照顾者的健康、获得的非正式社会支持、与失智老人的关系、完成任务数量、年龄、以及老人的记忆与行为问题和疾病阶段是影响照顾者的主观负荷水平的因素。这启发我们在制定相关政策时，尤其要关注以上显著因素，以提升照顾者的福祉。     

TRANSFERRED JUVENILES IN THE ERA OF SENTENCING GUIDELINES: EXAMINING JUDICIAL DEPARTURES FOR JUVENILE OFFENDERS IN ADULT CRIMINAL COURT*

This study contributes to contemporary research on the punishment of juvenile offenders in adult court by analyzing the use of guidelines departures for transferred juveniles in two states, one with presumptive sentencing guidelines (Pennsylvania) and one with voluntary guidelines (Maryland). Propensity score matching is first used to create more comparable samples of juvenile and young adult offenders, and then Tobit regressions are employed to estimate the effect of juvenile status on the likelihood and length of departures. Our findings indicate that juvenile status significantly affects the use of upward departures in Pennsylvania, and the use of both downward and upward departures in Maryland. Judicial reasons for departure are examined to provide additional insight into the complex dynamics surrounding exceptional sentences for juvenile offenders sentenced in adult court.     

Incidents of discrimination and risk for delinquency: A longitudinal test of strain theory with an African American sample

This article examines the relationship between racial discrimination and delinquency. Using longitudinal data collected on approximately 700 African American children, we begin by establishing an association between exposure to discrimination and delinquent behavior. Next, we use structural equation modeling to test various hypotheses regarding the emotional and cognitive factors that mediate this association. For boys, the association between discrimination and delinquency is mediated by feelings of anger and depression and by the belief that aggression is a necessary interpersonal tactic. The results are somewhat different for girls. Although anger and depression mediate part of the effect of discrimination on delinquency, discrimination continues to display a small but significant direct effect. The implications of these findings for criminological theory are discussed.     

利用摄影镜头透视关系实现现场摄影测量的研究

目的通过拍照不同焦距、不同角度下的照片并测量统计不同点的放大倍率,利用概率数理统计理论分析实验数据,得出照片上不同点的放大倍率曲线图。方法基于曲线图的形状,回归出照片上的不同点放大倍率的函数关系式。结果经过照片中任意两点间距离测算利用照片中放大倍率,可以得到照片中未知线段长度。结论运用照片中的放大倍率进行距离测量时,存在约3％的误差,另外拍摄角度对放大倍率的影响较大,而焦距的影响较小。     

An Evaluation of Statistical Methods for the Determination of Age of Death Using Dental Root Translucency and Periodontosis

Abstract: Lamendin and colleagues (1992) proposed to assess age‐at‐death from root translucency and periodontosis. Several teeth from the same individual were included in their study. In our work, we evaluate the reliability of their formulas without introducing this bias. Our sample was constituted of 214 individuals (114 males and 100 women) selected from the Terry collection (U.S.A.). The R² between age and both indicators is equal to 0.33 and 0.08 (p < 0.001). Based on linear regression, the mean of standard error for individual age prediction was equal to 13.67 years, and the mean interval length is equal to 53.89 years. Multinomial logistic regression and Bayesian approach failed to give satisfactory results when classifying the individuals in age categories. Therefore, the use of root translucency and periodontosis may lead to incorrect age‐at‐death assessment, and it is thus necessary to complement this approach with other techniques to assess age‐at‐death.     

A Bayesian Approach to Age Estimation in Modern Americans from the Clavicle*

Abstract: Clavicles from 1289 individuals from cohorts spanning the 20th century were scored with two scoring systems. Transition analysis and Bayesian statistics were used to obtain robust age ranges that are less sensitive to the effects of age mimicry and developmental outliers than age ranges obtained using a percentile approach. Observer error tests showed that a simple three‐phase scoring system proved the least subjective, while retaining accuracy levels. Additionally, significant sexual dimorphism was detected in the onset of fusion, with women commencing fusion at least a year earlier than men (women transition to fusion at approximately 15 years of age and men at 16 years). Significant secular trends were apparent in the onset of skeletal maturation, with modern Americans transitioning to fusion approximately 4 years earlier than early 20th century Americans and 3.5 years earlier than Korean War era Americans. These results underscore the importance of using modern standards to estimate age in modern individuals.     

Focal Points in Public Policy: Evidence from Voluntary Regulation

Numerous studies argue that law affects behavior “expressively”—such as when states create focal points that overcome the coordination difficulties firms face. We argue that governments help firms overcome coordination dilemmas by explicating a preferred strategy for firms weighing investment in voluntary regulation. Firms would prefer to coordinate on a common strategy as a way of reducing the costs of voluntary regulation and increasing its benefits. We test our hypothesis about the efficacy of focal point selection with the European Union's (EU) advocacy of the Eco‐Management and Audit Scheme (EMAS) over a rival environmental management system, International Standards Organization (ISO) 14001. EU nations have statistically significantly lower rates of ISO 14001 certification than comparable countries at least in part due to their advocacy of EMAS. These results emphasize the role the state plays in coordinating business behavior even when such policy is simply expressive.