Estimating the Temperature of Heat‐exposed Bone via Machine Learning Analysis of SCI Color Values: A Pilot Study

Determining maximum heating temperatures of burnt bones is a long‐standing problem in forensic science and archaeology. In this pilot study, controlled experiments were used to heat 14 fleshed and defleshed pig vertebrae (wet bones) and archaeological human vertebrae (dry bones) to temperatures of 400, 600, 800, and 1000°C. Specular component included (SCI) color values were recorded from the bone surfaces with a Konica‐Minolta cm‐2600d spectrophotometer. These color values were regressed onto heating temperature, using both a traditional linear model and the k‐nearest neighbor (k‐NN) machine‐learning algorithm. Mean absolute errors (MAE) were computed for 1000 rounds of temperature prediction. With the k‐NN approach, the median MAE prediction errors were 41.6°C for the entire sample, and 20.9°C for the subsample of wet bones. These results indicate that spectrophotometric color measurements combined with machine learning methods can be a viable tool for estimating bone heating temperature.     

A Reliable Regression‐Based Approach for Reassociating Human Skeletal Elements of the Lower Limbs from Commingled Assemblages

Accurate sorting of commingled human remains comprises a fundamental requirement for all further anthropological analyses. The lower limb bones are particularly important for reconstructing biological profiles. This study introduces a metric technique for sorting these elements using eight standard anthropological measurements and 222 adult individuals from Greece. The bones utilized were the os coxae, the femora, the tibiae and the tali. Simple regression analyses were used to develop functions for reassociating articulating bones, providing strong correlations (r = 0.74–0.95, p‐value <0.05) and high coefficients of determination (r²=0.54–0.91). Blind tests demonstrated that combining metric and morphoscopic techniques provides an excellent sorting accuracy for the hip and knee joints (ten of ten individuals), allowing for a reliable reassociation between a sex and age indicator (os coxae) and a body size indicator (femur). Overall, these results indicate the high value of metric methods in sorting commingled human remains.     

Statistical Modeling of the Case Information From the Ohio Attorney General's Sexual Assault Kit Testing Initiative

The Ohio Attorney General's Sexual Assault Kit (SAK) Testing Initiative has resulted in nearly 14,000 kits being processed since the initiation of the project in 2012. A logistic regression model was fit to the data from 2500 SAKs in order to determine the probability of obtaining at least one Combined DNA Index System (CODIS) eligible DNA profile based on a number of predictor variables. The probability of obtaining at least one CODIS eligible DNA profile from an SAK varied as a function of (i) days to kit collection following a sexual assault; (ii) years to kit submission to the laboratory for testing following kit collection; (iii) the age of the victim; and (iv) the occurrence of victim‐reported consensual sex around the time of the assault and/or kit collection. These findings demonstrate the utility of the statistical modeling of data obtained from the “forklift” testing approach of sexual assault kits.     

Avoiding overstating the strength of forensic evidence: Shrunk likelihood ratios/Bayes factors

When strength of forensic evidence is quantified using sample data and statistical models, a concern may be raised as to whether the output of a model overestimates the strength of evidence. This is particularly the case when the amount of sample data is small, and hence sampling variability is high. This concern is related to concern about precision. This paper describes, explores, and tests three procedures which shrink the value of the likelihood ratio or Bayes factor toward the neutral value of one. The procedures are: (1) a Bayesian procedure with uninformative priors, (2) use of empirical lower and upper bounds (ELUB), and (3) a novel form of regularized logistic regression. As a benchmark, they are compared with linear discriminant analysis, and in some instances with non-regularized logistic regression. The behaviours of the procedures are explored using Monte Carlo simulated data, and tested on real data from comparisons of voice recordings, face images, and glass fragments.     

The Automation of Regression Modeling in Osteometric Sorting: An Ordination Approach

This study compares the original osteometric sorting association method with an ordination approach across all combinations of the humerus, ulna, radius, femur, tibia, and fibula. This includes both the original prediction interval and t‐statistic approaches. Standard measurements are utilized in the models with full measurements combined and without length measurements. The sample is the osteometric sorting reference from the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency. A full set of performance statistics is provided. Results indicate the ordination approach outperforms the original in the majority of bone combinations. Models with length measurements have more exclusion power than those without. It is recommended for the ordination approach to supersede the original when applied to large commingled assemblages.     

Geographical patterns of incendiary and accidental fires in Springfield,Massachusetts, 1980–1984

Arson is a serious crime occurring with increasing frequency in urban America today. To date, this crime remains poorly documented and seldom discussed in the literature, particularly from a geographical viewpoint. This study examined the spatial distribution and underlying factors associated with 440 arson and 732 accidental fires recorded in Springfield, Massachusetts, between 1980 and 1984. Based upon a series of dot and choropleth maps, there was evidence that both incendiary and accidental fires were clustered not only in specific Springfield neighborhoods but also along individual city streets. In an attempt to understand better the varying frequency of arson fires among the 36 census tracts in the Springfield study area, a multiple regression analysis was performed using census data reflecting a variety of social, economic, and housing characteristics. Two variables, representing housing vacancy and tenement-type housing, entered into the final regression equation. Together, these two variables accounted for 70.4% of the reported arson cases. A subsequent inspection of the regression residuals revealed a random geographical pattern, thereby precluding any simple explanation for the remaining unexplained arson. Other factors such as insurance, building ownership, and length of occupancy were thought to warrant examination in future research.     

根据中国汉族男性甲状软骨推算年龄的研究

目的根据中国汉族男性甲状软骨推算年龄。方法对73例已知年龄的中国汉族男性甲状软骨进行软X线摄片和(或)X线摄片,从摄片上选择8个与年龄变化关系较为密切的观察部位,每个部位又划分成3至6个等级,然后采用多元线性回归方法,建立其推算年龄的数学模型。结果运用该方法推算男性甲状软骨年龄,其标准差为1.354,复相关系数R为0.9971。结论本方法适用于中国汉族男性甲状软骨的年龄推算,其有效力年龄范围为13-67岁。     

Links,Mitte, Rechts: Worauf grã¼ndet die ideologische Selbstidentifikation der Schweizer und Schweizerinnen?

Die Links‐Rechts‐Selbsteinschã¤tzung wird in Stimmverhaltensstudien hã¤ufig als ein äusserst zuverlã¤ssiger Prã¤diktor des individuellen Entscheids ausgewiesen. Dabei ist jedoch keineswegs klar, wie sie auf den Urnenentscheid Einfluss nimmt. Ã?ber ihre Verhaltensrelevanz besitzen wir deshalb nur wenig gesichertes Wissen, da nach wie vor umstritten ist, worauf die ideologische Selbsteinstufung fusst. Ist sie ein Surrogat der Parteisympathie, wird sie aus grundlegenden gesellschaftspolitischen Ã?berzeugungen hergeleitet oder ist sie â‐“ zumindest teilweise â‐“ ein Datenartefakt? Die empirische Analyse zeigt, dass eine Unterscheidung zwischen Parteigebundenen und ‐ungebundenen sowie der Einbezug der intervenierenden Variablen der politischen Informiertheit nã¶tig ist, um den Determinanten der ideologischen Selbstidentifikation auf die Spur zu kommen. Dies ermã¶glicht die Differenzierung von vier Analysegruppen, fã¼r die unterschiedliche Aussagen Geltung haben.     

布卢姆儿童智力发展曲线的由来及证伪

本研究通过严密细致的模拟实验来评价布卢姆的儿童智力发展曲线。结果表明：由于人的智力发展在很大程度上是非随机的过程,安德生的以随机实验为根据的重叠公式不适合用于计算机的智力发展,因此,以安德生的重叠公式为根据的布卢姆的智力发展曲线从本质上说是错误的。     

Media influences and effects on experiences of uncertainty and fear in urban public spaces

From the point of a normative idea of equality, all citizens are entitled to equal access to the cities public spaces. In the public debate, the media have often been blamed for contributing to people＇s fear and insecurity and the avoidance of public places, especially after dark. In this paper, the author addresses the question of how and to what extent experiences of risk and threats in the media, perceptions of crime coverage in the media and third-person-effects of risk and threats influence the degree of avoidance of public places and the variation in people＇s experiences of the sensation of feeling fear and insecurity in public places. The main results presented here are primarily based on survey data from a well known regional survey （Western SOM） performed in 2001-2007 on approximately 3,000 inhabitants in the local region of Gothenburg, Sweden. Experiences of risk and threats through the media are of minor importance for the independent effect on the experiences of the sensation of feeling fear and insecurity in public spaces. The main role of the media is through the perceptions the respondents have on media coverage on crime and media influence on their own and others experiences of threats and risks. Those that believe that media coverage on crime is understated have to a greater extent avoided public places and experienced the sensation of feeling fear and insecurity than those that believe that media coverage of crime is coherent with reality or overstated. The third-person-effects that occur also have consequences. Those that believe that media influence experiences of threats and risks have to a greater extent experienced the sensation of feeling fear and insecurity than those that don＇t believe in media influence （on both others and themselves）. The main conclusion presented in this paper is that the avoidance of public places and variation in people＇s experiences of the sensation of feeling fear and insecurity in public places is more related to people＇s perceptions of media content and media influence regarding risk and threats than experiences of risk and threats through the media. This, however, doesn＇t mean that the experience of risk and threats through the media doesn＇t matter. Experience of risk and threats through the media matters, but do so through reinforcing personal and social experiences of risk and threats.