Crime in Central and Eastern European Countries in the Enlarged Europe

An enlarged European Union not only means more territory and a greater population, but also more crimes and perpetrators of crimes. The European integration brings a new challenge to criminology. Comparison of crime statistics across countries is still one of the most difficult methodological problems in criminological analyses. Countries differ in respect of their penal systems and penal policies. Reporting and statistical systems are also different. How, then, can one compare crime between European countries? Can one say where it is safer or where the police work better? Can one determine what the manner of data collection should be so that it reflects reality accurately? This article concentrates on a representation of some trends of crime in Central and Eastern European countries. A main source of information about crime are official crime statistics collected according to the methodological rules worked out by the European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics. In the case of homicide, police data are confronted with vital statistics gathered by the World Heath Organization (WHO). The statistics on assault and robbery were compared, as much as possible, with the victimization data from the International Crime Victims Survey (ICVS). The socio-economic context of the crime, the main circumstances of the crime statistics, which affected the interpretation of the crime trends for Central and Eastern European Countries, is presented.     

Statistical Societies of Interchangeable Lives

This article proposes an understanding of the structure of the social bond based on statistics and risk calculations about death and disease rates. These calculations predict with almost mathematical certainty that a specified impersonal portion of a given population will develop a mortal disease, such as cancer, or suffer a fatal accident, such as car or plane accidents. Consequently, every individual member of that population who actually dies of those causes, dies in the place of all the other members of the same population who could have probably died in her place but actually did not; thus, she offers to all of them the gift of death. All members of a population/society (statistical populations are the societies of modernity) are, therefore, tied together within a sacrificial bond of health and disease, life and death. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Sampling and statistical considerations for the Suchey–Brooks method for pubic bone age estimation: Implications for regional comparisons

Although the Suchey–Brooks (SB) system is currently the most widely used method for age-at-death estimation from the pubic bone, the system continues to evolve through stepwise improvements. Since the system was developed from a pubic bone sample derived mainly from North Americans, it is unclear how well it performs on populations from other continents. During the last decade, studies of the SB system on pubic bone samples from local populations in Europe and Asia have indicated regional differences in the relationship between age and pubic bone development. However, these studies have for the most part followed different research protocols, which make comparisons between their results less meaningful. It would be most useful if future regional analysis of the SB system were done in a rigorous and uniform fashion, following standard procedures. In this paper, sampling and statistical considerations are outlined that hopefully will help to standardize research on the SB system.     

Statistical Evidence for the Similarity of the Human Dentition

Abstract: Recent scrutiny of forensic science has focused on unreliability of expert witness testimony when based on statements of individuality. In bitemark analysis, assumptions regarding uniqueness of the dentition have been based on use of the product rule while ignoring correlation and nonuniformity of dental arrangement. To examine the effect of these factors, two separate sets of scanned dental models (n = 172 and n = 344) were measured and statistically tested to determine match rates. Results were compared to those of a prior study. Seven and 16 matches of the six anterior lower teeth were found in the respective data sets. Correlations and nonuniform distributions of tooth positions were observed. Simulation tests were performed to verify results. Results indicate that given experimental measurement parameters, statements of dental uniqueness with respect to bitemark analysis in an open population are unsupportable and that use of the product rule is inappropriate.     

Comparative Forensic Soil Analysis of New Jersey State Parks Using a Combination of Simple Techniques with Multivariate Statistics,

This study has shown that the combination of simple techniques with the use of multivariate statistics offers the potential for the comparative analysis of soil samples. Five samples were obtained from each of twelve state parks across New Jersey in both the summer and fall seasons. Each sample was examined using particle‐size distribution, pH analysis in both water and 1 M CaCl₂, and a loss on ignition technique. Data from each of the techniques were combined, and principal component analysis (PCA) and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) were used for multivariate data transformation. Samples from different locations could be visually differentiated from one another using these multivariate plots. Hold‐one‐out cross‐validation analysis showed error rates as low as 3.33%. Ten blind study samples were analyzed resulting in no misclassifications using Mahalanobis distance calculations and visual examinations of multivariate plots. Seasonal variation was minimal between corresponding samples, suggesting potential success in forensic applications.     

Progress Toward the Determination of Correct Classification Rates in Fire Debris Analysis II: Utilizing Soft Independent Modeling of Class Analogy (SIMCA)

A multistep classification scheme was used to detect and classify ignitable liquid residues in fire debris into the classes defined by the ASTM E1618‐10 standard method. The total ion spectra (TIS) of the samples were classified by soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) with cross‐validation and tested on fire debris. For detection of ignitable liquid residue, the true‐positive rate was 94.2% for cross‐validation and 79.1% for fire debris, with false‐positive rates of 5.1% and 8.9%, respectively. Evaluation of SIMCA classifications for fire debris relative to a reviewer's examination led to an increase in the true‐positive rate to 95.1%; however, the false‐positive rate also increased to 15.0%. The correct classification rates for assigning ignitable liquid residues into ASTM E1618‐10 classes were generally in the range of 80–90%, with the exception of gasoline samples, which were incorrectly classified as aromatic solvents following evaporative weathering in fire debris.     

Statistical Classification Methods for Estimating Ancestry Using Morphoscopic Traits,

Ancestry assessments using cranial morphoscopic traits currently rely on subjective trait lists and observer experience rather than empirical support. The trait list approach, which is untested, unverified, and in many respects unrefined, is relied upon because of tradition and subjective experience. Our objective was to examine the utility of frequently cited morphoscopic traits and to explore eleven appropriate and novel methods for classifying an unknown cranium into one of several reference groups. Based on these results, artificial neural networks (aNNs), OSSA, support vector machines, and random forest models showed mean classification accuracies of at least 85%. The aNNs had the highest overall classification rate (87.8%), and random forests show the smallest difference between the highest (90.4%) and lowest (76.5%) classification accuracies. The results of this research demonstrate that morphoscopic traits can be successfully used to assess ancestry without relying only on the experience of the observer.     

The impact of the principles of evidence interpretation on the structure and content of statements

The Forensic Science Service (FSS) has devoted appreciable effort to developing the application of the principles of evidence interpretation. Much of the work has been reported in previous papers in this journal, in particular those that develop a model for Case Assessment and Interpretation (CAI). The principles of interpretation are restated and the implications for structure and content of statements are described.     

Economic voting in multi-tiered polities

This paper assesses whether economic voting plays any role in a parliamentary, decentralized polity. Decentralization is argued to blur lines of responsibility and confuse voters about whom to blame for poor economic performance at the national and regional levels. National and Regional Economic Voting (NEV and REV, respectively) are tested in Catalonia (Spain). The initial empirical test suggests that only NEV takes place in this region. Four hypotheses are considered to explain REV’s absence: blame-shifting, blinding nationalism, coalition government, and misinformation regarding Policy Responsibility Distribution across tiers of government. Using reasonable counterfactuals and Bayesian techniques, the first three hypotheses are dismissed, whereas the last is confirmed. The results emphasize the informational requirements behind the economic voting theory.     

对高校统计学试题库改革的建议

统计学在不断的发展变化,作为检验教学效果的考试试卷应跟上这种变化,但是试题库通常采用的方法是试卷入库,这种方式使得调整试卷的内容、结构等灵活性不够,时效性不够,束缚统计教学内容和方法的改变,因此需进行改革。