大数据时代司法统计在审判管理中的应用

保障司法统计数据的精确、真实,要求司法统计方法进一步完善,这就要求科技发展能够促进司法统计的发展。科学的统计方法要求能够解决司法统计数据孤立、统计报表报送滞后的问题,并完善审判质效评估体系、创新海量数据挖掘分析机制,最终为司法审判工作服务。     

2007年度全国法医类、物证类、声像资料类司法鉴定情况统计分析

2007年是司法行政机关全面履行司法鉴定管理职责，加强管理工作，规范执业活动的管理年。建设年，也是实现司法鉴定体制改革要求的关键一年。各级司法行政机关把司法鉴定管理工作的重点放在“抓管理、打基础、促发展”上。为促进法医类、物证类和声像资料类司法鉴定机构和司法鉴定人的规范和发展做出了积极努力。本文对“三大类”司法鉴定情况作了统计和分析．     

Excel统计分析工具在痕迹检验中的应用

痕迹检验是用来揭露和证实犯罪，痕迹检验的结果为侦查、起诉审判提供着不可或缺的线索和证据。痕迹检验中会遇到大量的数据处理，数理统计学提供了有力的科学支持和有效地分析方法，而Excel则为此提供了方便快捷的统计分析工具，让我们在痕迹检验过程中，能都科学的、有效地、快捷的进行数据分析，为侦查破案提供依据。     

The Quantitative Analysis of Terrorism and Immigration: An Initial Exploration

This article uses immigration and other biographical data to refute much of the conventional wisdom about the relationship between terrorism and immigration. Using a database created from the biographical data of 373 terrorists, we have established a number of significant findings. Over forty percent of our database is made up of Western Nationals. Second, despite widespread alarms raised over terrorist infiltration from Mexico, we found no terrorist presence in Mexico and no terrorists who entered the U.S. from Mexico. Third, we found a sizeable terrorist presence in Canada and a number of Canadian-based terrorists who have entered the U.S. In addition to illuminating the terrorist networks entrenched in the West, this paper is also an attempt to advance the field of terrorism studies by taking a quantitative approach to data analysis.     

How to Develop More Effective Policies Against Crime: Some Reflections on Drugs and Crime Research in an International Context

This paper offers some reflections on how to develop more effective policies against crime, drawing on more than 10 years of research experience on the international drug problem. The paper begins by trying to illustrate the so-called justice gap in the world, and explain why an institution such as the United Nations has a comparative advantage in closing that gap. It then details four lessons that the author has learnt from his own personal experience as head of research in the United Nations International Drug Control Programme, now called the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime: (i) measure, count, and keep counting; (ii) publish or perish, either in inter-governmental default, or in public hysteria; (iii) limit the dangers of committing the euphemistic fallacy; and (iv) divorce research and policy, because research is policy-dependent; make research policy-relevant, and re-marry it to policy. Finally, the paper tries to show how these lessons can be applied in related areas and used as good practice in research on crime.     

浅议统计信息质量提高

目前我国统计信息质量还远远达不到社会对其要求,亟待提高。为此,要大力推进依法统计,加强统计制度方法的改革,使统计工作能更好地服务于社会经济活动。     

NIBRS Data Available for Secondary Analysis

The NIBRS data program currently being implemented by the FBI and local lawenforcement agencies has by now produced sufficient data for archiving anddistribution. Although not representative of crime in the United States, existing NIBRS data can be used to investigate the nature of crimesknown to the police compared to the traditional UCR data. The Bureau ofJustice Statistics has requested the National Archive of Criminal JusticeData to store and make NIBRS data available to interested users. The datafrom 1996 will shortly be available from the NACJD web site. The 1996 datacontain almost 6.5 million records and the FBI's full file includes about 361 Mbytes of data. The data have been disaggregated from the FBI's complex single file into 11 segment levels or record types. This makes theindividual record types easier and faster to analyze than using the fullfile, which more closely resembles a relational database than a hierarchicalfile. However, splitting apart the record types requires that specialprocedures be used to merge files of different record types, which would benecessary if a user were interested in analyzing variables appearing in morethan one record type (e.g., comparing offender and victim ages). These procedures are described, and a test comparing the time to run a simple frequencycount using the full file against the merged files shows that using themerged files is considerably more efficient. Also discussed are some futuredevelopments to facilitate the analysis of NIBRS data.     

356例强奸案资料的回顾性研究

本文收集法医物证检验确证强奸案３５６例。统计分析表明，强奸的动机不仅在于用武力强迫的方式达到性乐满足，而且在于用诱骗的方式达到某种权利或优越感的满足；其诱因既来自罪犯，也来自受害人的文化道德素质，性知识和法制观念，以及环境因素等；罪犯与受害人ＡＢＯ血型表型及基因型与相应普通人群比较无统计学差异。     

Measuring the frequency occurrence of handwritten numeral characteristics—An expanded list

In the third of a series of studies and reports, the authors expand on the frequency occurrence proportions of various handwritten features. The first study culminated in the publication of “Measuring the Frequency Occurrence of Handwriting and Handprinting Characteristics.” That study was followed by “Measuring the Frequency Occurrence of Handwritten Numeral Characteristics.” The premise of this current and future follow‐up studies is to expand on the initial lists of information incrementally by expanding the number of features and the number of writers. This study expands on the list of numeral features. A total of 34 numeral features was selected by the authors as candidates for this study and tested through an attribute agreement analysis. Based on the results of the testing, 17 new features have been added to the list of proportions. The original 1410 handwritten numeral specimen forms were utilized and pared to 1024 to obtain a proper population sampling for the United States. Interdependency testing was conducted on 783 pairs of inter‐character numerals. A coefficient of correlation between ?0.2 and +0.2 was found in 534 (68.20%) of these pairs. As of this report, there are now a total of 42 numerals with measured frequencies of occurrence. This material has already borne fruit as the combined frequency of occurrence studies were explained during an unsuccessful exclusion hearing in court with an explanation as to how these studies support the reliability of forensic document examination.