The 1881 census in the Russian Baltic provinces: An inventory and an assessment

The 1881 census of the Russian Baltic provinces of Livland, Estland, and Kurland was the first modern-type systematic population enumeration in the Baltic area. It had been preceded by enumerations of other kinds—land cadastres that included aggregate population counts (during Swedish control of the area) in the 17th century, and fiscal revisions (during Russian control of the area) that did list residents by name but did not follow any principles of modern census-taking. The Baltic German politico-economic elite, which controlled public affairs in the Baltic provinces, decided to carry out a census of a modern kind, and produced the 1881 count. Although initially the initiative was coordinated by the statistical specialists of the three provinces, the publication of results was decentralized, resulting in a series of volumes that supplied different tables for each province. The article analyzes the contents of the census, some of its shortcomings, as well as its strengths.     

岗位实训量化管理模式构建与实践——安徽省2011年省级示范实习实训中心项目研究内容

岗位实训是指公安院校的校外实训。岗位实训量化管理模式是根据实训计划内容和要求,对学生在公安机关基层工作中所承担工作任务进行分解统计,将工作内容转化为一定数据,及时、客观反映实训过程、状态和效果,并以此为依据实施实训管理的方式。实训中,对学生从事的工作进行统计量化,形成反映实训实时动态的量化数据,以此作为管理基础,可增强管理的科学性和有效性。由于工作量统计内容多、过程复杂,为确保量化管理模式有效运行,必须建立和完善实训量化机制,在统计项目、统计人员、统计过程、统计职责等关键环节上要有明确规定,以保证统计结果的真实性和教学管理的有效性。实践证明,将量化统计方法应用岗位实训中,构建实训量化管理模式,着力解决管理难题,能为岗位实训教学实现精细化发展奠定坚实基础。     

Quantifying Uncertainty in Estimations of the Total Weight of Drugs in Groups of Complex Matrices: Using the Welch–Satterthwaite Equation

In this paper, a method is described to quantify estimations of the total amount of drugs in groups of seized items, including quantification of the precision. Previous work on this topic was based on the assumptions of normally distributed measurements and grouping of items with a common relative standard deviation. In practice, these assumptions are often violated, for example, for data with point masses at 0, or if certain items in a group have a very high standard deviation. The method described in this paper is based on work by Welch and Satterthwaite and does not assume constant relative standard deviations. Case examples are described for which the method is applied, and simulation studies are carried out for which both methods are applied. In the cases, both methods perform reasonably well. If the assumption of common relative standard deviations clearly does not apply, it is advised to use the method described.     

The Development and Application of Random Match Probabilities to Firearm and Toolmark Identification

The field of firearms and toolmark analysis has encountered deep scrutiny of late, stemming from a handful of voices, primarily in the law and statistical communities. While strong scrutiny is a healthy and necessary part of any scientific endeavor, much of the current criticism leveled at firearm and toolmark analysis is, at best, misinformed and, at worst, punditry. One of the most persistent criticisms stems from the view that as the field lacks quantified random match probability data (or at least a firm statistical model) with which to calculate the probability of a false match, all expert testimony concerning firearm and toolmark identification or source attribution is unreliable and should be ruled inadmissible. However, this critique does not stem from the hard work of actually obtaining data and performing the scientific research required to support or reject current findings in the literature. Although there are sound reasons (described herein) why there is currently no unifying probabilistic model for the comparison of striated and impressed toolmarks as there is in the field of forensic DNA profiling, much statistical research has been, and continues to be, done to aid the criminal justice system. This research has thus far shown that error rate estimates for the field are very low, especially when compared to other forms of judicial error. The first purpose of this paper is to point out the logical fallacies in the arguments of a small group of pundits, who advocate a particular viewpoint but cloak it as fact and research. The second purpose is to give a balanced review of the literature regarding random match probability models and statistical applications that have been carried out in forensic firearm and toolmark analysis.     

Defending the scientific foundations of the firearms and tool mark identification discipline: responding to recent challenges

Recent challenges have brought the discipline of firearms and tool mark identification to the forefront in recent court cases. This article reviews those challenges and offers substantial support for the scientific foundations of the firearms and tool mark identification discipline. A careful review of the available literature has revealed that firearms and tool mark identification is rooted in firm scientific foundations, critically studied according to the precepts of the scientific method culminating in the Association of Firearms and Toolmark Examiners' Theory of Identification. Firearms and tool mark identification has been validated in a manner appropriate for evidence of the kind to be expected in firearms and tool mark examinations. Proficiency tests and error rates have been studied and can provide consumers of the disciple with a useful guide as to the frequency with which misidentifications are reported in the community using appropriate methodologies and controls. As a result, the primary issues in recent challenges do not invalidate the firearms and tool mark discipline as a science nor should it detract it from its admissibility in a court of law.     

Measurement Uncertainty When Estimating the Velocity of an Allegedly Speeding Vehicle from Images

Abstract: Sometimes the question arises whether it is possible to estimate the velocity of a speeding car recorded by closed circuit television cameras. By estimating the travelled distance of the car between two images and the time elapsed, estimation of the velocity is rather straightforward. However, to quantify the corresponding measurement uncertainty, the data analysis becomes more involved. The article describes two approaches as to how to derive the measurement uncertainty. In the first method, distance and timing are estimated separately, and the two uncertainties are combined to derive the measurement uncertainty for the velocity. For this, a frequentist and a Bayesian approach are described. In the second method, the measurement uncertainty for the speed is derived directly using validation recordings of a car driving by at known speed. The choice which method to use depends mainly on the length of the path that the car has travelled.     

浅议统计学原理教学中多媒体辅助教学手段的利用

文中分析了统计学原理教学引进多媒体辅助手段的重要性,并就多媒体教学中应着重解决的问题进行了探讨。     

The Sex Crime: Deterioration more Apparent than Real?

Public concern about an escalation of sex crime is unsupported by a critical analysis of official crime statistics in England and Wales. Assumptions about the inveterate recidivism of sex offenders are unconfirmed by follow-up studies. A great variety of behaviours is covered by sex crime, from the grave to the trivial. To the traditional offences of predatory aggressors, violent rapists and a small number of dangerous offenders driven by pathological emotions, are now added date rapes and harassments previously little reported. All sex incidents involving children are widely believed to cause lasting damage, despite evidence to the contrary. Female offenders and boy victims are receiving more attention. Adolescent involvement is insufficiently distinguished from paedophile offences and male homosexuals are suspected of paedophile tendencies. The development of constructive therapeutic approaches is impeded by doubts about efficacy and a punitive ethos.     

大数据时代下劳动经济统计的优化刍议

大数据时代给经济学和统计学研究带来了很多便利,也提出了新的挑战。经济学研究的数理化取向依赖数据采信的科学化,大数据理论助推经济学数理化趋势向更深入方向发展。大数据理论为劳动经济数据统计及统计指标体系建设提供了新的思路和视角,劳动经济统计指标体系的优化,要在指标设定、采集方法和数据使用上进一步优化,更加科学、有效地推动经济统计工作发展。