Strategic rebels: a spatial econometric approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

ABSTRACT

Recent research on multi-actor civil wars highlights that rebel organizations condition their conflict behavior on that of other rebel organizations, with competition and free-riding constituting the core theoretical mechanisms. We provide a new actor-centric approach to explicitly model strategic interdependence in multi-actor civil wars. We argue that rebel organizations have incentives to remain mobilized until the end of a conflict to maintain their power to negotiate, power to spoil, power to enforce, and power to protect. This induces strategic complements that dominate duration dynamics in multi-actor conflicts. Based on a network game-theoretic model, we derive a spatial econometric framework that allows for a direct test of strategic interdependence. We find that the estimated duration interdependence is positive but partially offset in secessionist conflicts where the public goods nature of the incompatibility also induces strategic substitution effects.     

What can a party say? How parties' communication can influence voters' issue ownership perceptions

Research has documented that issue ownership is an important aspect of voter behaviour. Therefore, issue ownership is an important asset for parties and one that they might try to improve on in order to enhance their electoral chances. Using survey experiments on a representative sample of Danish voters, the paper investigates what messages a party can convey to voters in order to improve its issue ownership – communicating its emphasis on the issue, its position on the issue, its links to the issue constituency, or its performance on the issue – across both valence and position issues. The results show the effectiveness of the latter two communication strategies thereby documenting that parties through their communication may affect voters' perceptions of their issue handling competencies.     

Construction Procurement and State Government Strategy: Aligned or Disconnected?

Australian state governments are engaging in strategic planning processes and publishing departmental and/or overall state strategic plans. One means of achieving the goals outlined in these strategic plans is via public procurement processes. Investments in construction projects by governments are strategic in nature and made to create infrastructure, which enables the provision of public services. This article investigates the contribution that construction procurement across the five Australian state governments who expend the most money on infrastructure makes towards the achievement of government strategy. The research draws on interviews with experienced project managers to assess whether public sector construction procurement is aligned or disconnected with publically stated government strategies.     

Interview with Nathalie Tocci on the Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign and Security Policy

The Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign And Security Policy, “Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe”, presented at the European Council on 24 June 2016 by Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the Commission, was drafted by Nathalie Tocci, Deputy Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and co-editor of The International Spectator. 

Given the importance of the document, we asked Nathalie for an interview and 18 foreign policy experts from around the world to comment on it.     

战略视野中的企业社会责任

经济全球化的发展和跨国公司的扩张导致了一系列社会问题,人们对企业社会责任的呼声日益高涨,形成了企业社会责任运动。跨国公司的积极推动又把这一运动向发展中国家扩展并演变成一种隐蔽性较强的贸易壁垒,使中国企业拓展国际市场面临新的挑战。本文旨在通过回顾企业社会责任运动的发展历程,诠释企业社会责任的科学内涵,提出企业实施社会责任的有效途径,剖析企业承担社会责任的战略性收益,来提高中国企业的社会责任意识,积极应对挑战,主动承担社会责任,实现企业与社会双赢,从而提升国际竞争力,促进可持续发展。     

学习毛泽东 不断提高战略思维能力——兼论毛泽东在井冈山斗争时期的科学预见

战略思维是领导干部必须具备的一项重要素质和能力。毛泽东是我们党的历史上善于以世界眼光和战略思维观察、分析、剖断和解决问题的典范。井冈山斗争时期,毛泽东对中国革命道路基本方向的预见就是善于战略思维的杰作之一。因此,学习、借鉴毛泽东,是培养和提高领导干部战略思维能力的一个重要途径。     

Displacing your Principal. Two Historical Case Studies of Some Interest for the Constitutional Future of Europe

The framework of public decisions, and particularly the provision of law, is seen here as an agency contract. What distinguishes this contract is the nature of the right delegated to the agent: The capacity to make law gives the opportunity to take advantage of the incompleteness of the constitutional contract. The agency relationship may be loosened or even reversed. This article tries to draw some lessons from the English and American history in that matter and applies them to the making of the future European State.     

美国对华拒止性威慑战略论析

拒止性威慑的思想源远流长,作为一种军事战略的拒止性威慑具有广泛性、实时性和受挑战性三个主要特点。拒止性威慑的思路相比惩罚性威慑更具操作性,在信息化战争时代也更具优势。美国战略学界认为,在西太平洋地区中美实力日渐接近的情况下,对华拒止性威慑战略是较优选项。美国对华拒止性威慑战略兴于特朗普政府时期,其主要特点是加强军事系统弹性能力建设与发展新战区导弹防御体系。拜登政府则在“一体化威慑”框架下应用对华拒止性威慑,发展深度防御能力。美国对拒止性威慑战略的理解与应用已经突破了传统意义上偏重防御的拒止性威慑模式。该战略的目标是联合盟友阻止中国在西太平洋地区的快速军事行动,维持和巩固在该地区的军事主导权。虽然美国对华拒止性威慑战略的实践受到了诸多内外因素制约,但其给中美带来的负面影响仍在不断加深,并对地区安全构成巨大挑战。中国需要主动培塑有利于军力发展的良好环境,发展新技术装备,应对美国对华拒止性威慑战略实践造成的军事胁迫,降低各类战略风险。     

从海尔和春兰的比较看企业的多元化战略

本通过对海尔和春兰的多元化战略在动机、类型、途径和运行效果等方面的不同特点的比较与分析,对中国企业发展多元化战略得出了一些规律性认识：（１）成功的专业化经营基础和主导产业的核心竞争力是成功的多元化战略的必要条件;（２）兼并是企业多元化扩展的一种有效途径;（３）企业一般不宜进行大规模的低相关扩展。     

Identifying IT-based rural development infrastructures： Strategic alignment approach

Information technology （IT） has been able to facilitate the rural development through empowering and integrating the accessibility of the villagers （cottagers） to the available knowledge and information and the opportunities to different extents. The success of IT approach in rural development requires some initial efforts to prepare applying IT in order to achieve it. Awareness of IT-based rural development infrastructures and subsequently preparation of required infrastructures are one of the most important steps towards delivering the development program. Considering the importance of this subject, in this paper, we have tried to identify the IT-based rural development infrastructures, using the ideas of experts in IT and rural development across the Iran country. The data analysis of 171 respondents with T-student test showed that the factors of social-cultural, organizational-managerial, technical-telecommunication and legal-legitimate are the IT-based infrastructures of rural development. Successful provision of these elements depends on the existence of strategic alignment approach and focuses on the balanced maturity of the infrastructures.