Predicting Initiator and Near Repeat Events in Spatiotemporal Crime Patterns: An Analysis of Residential Burglary and Motor Vehicle Theft

Near repeat analysis has been increasingly used to measure the spatiotemporal clustering of crime in contemporary criminology. Despite its predictive capacity, the typically short time frame of near repeat crime patterns can negatively affect the crime prevention utility of near repeat analysis. Thus, recent research has argued for a greater understanding of the types of places that are most likely to generate near repeat crime patterns. The current study contributes to the literature through a spatiotemporal analysis of residential burglary and motor vehicle theft in Indianapolis, IN. Near Repeat analyses were followed by multinomial logistic regression models to identify covariates related to the occurrence of initiator (the first event in a near repeat chain) and near repeat (the subsequent event in a near repeat chain) events. The overall findings provide additional support for the argument that neighborhood context can influence the formation and context of spatiotemporal crime patterns.     

死刑案件辩护有效性研究:状况、困境与出路

对死刑案件相关辩护情况进行调查研究可知,我国对于刑事辩护投入不充分,资源分配不均衡;辩护程序依附于定罪、量刑合一的审判传统;公权力机关内凝型关系挤压死刑辩护的空间;民意与舆论压力也妨碍死刑案件辩护的有效性。在党的十九大报告明确社会主要矛盾已经转化,要深化司法体制综合配套改革,同时最高人民法院和司法部试点刑事案件审判阶段的律师辩护全覆盖的改革语境下,职能部门应调整死刑案件法律援助费用及其来源,适时提高死刑案件辩护律师的资质要求,充分保障死刑案件中辩护律师的执业权利,将死刑案件定罪和量刑阶段的辩护程序分离,完善证人、鉴定人出庭机制,在死刑案件中逐步确立无效辩护制度,营造尊重和维护死刑案件辩护权的法律文化。     

A part-declared blind testing program in firearms examination

In 2015 and 2016 the Central Unit of the Dutch National Police created and submitted 21 cartridge case comparison tests as real cases to the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI), under supervision of the University of Twente (UT). A total of 53 conclusions were drawn in these 21 tests. For 31 conclusions the underlying ground truth was “positive”, in the sense that it addressed a cluster of cartridge cases that was fired from the same firearm. For 22 conclusions the ground truth was “negative”, in the sense that the cartridge cases were fired from different firearms. In none of the conclusions, resulting from examinations under casework conditions, misleading evidence was reported. All conclusions supported the hypothesis reflecting the ground truth. This article discusses the design and results of the tests in more detail.     

家事司法修复家庭关系的经验研究

家事审判改革强调修复家庭关系在家事案件处理中的重要性，但西南地区X法庭家事审判实践的经验研究表明，家事司法修复家庭关系的效度并不彰显。法官将家庭关系修复贯穿于审判的全过程后，依然很难修复夫妻一方离婚意愿强烈的婚姻关系，在面对代际关系冲突时也只能用法定权利义务关系去简化复杂的家庭关系。家事司法在修复家庭关系中能力有限，根本原因在于在当前社会条件下面临多重制约，包括开放社会带来的不稳定性、家庭成员之间的个体意识冲突、现代法律与家庭价值的冲突等。因此，家事审判改革应当在完善心理辅导、多元调解、单位联动等配套机制的同时，积极引导家庭成员树立有利于家庭关系和谐稳定的价值观念，建立能够有效稳定家庭关系的社会机制。     

Informing regional taphonomy research using retrospective forensic anthropology cases in the Western Cape,South Africa

The post-mortem interval (PMI) is important in death investigations as it can assist in reconstructing the context of the case and the identification of the unknown individual. However, in some instances the PMI is challenging to estimate due to the absence of regional taphonomy standards. To conduct accurate and locally relevant forensic taphonomy research, investigators require insight into the regional hotspot recovery areas. Thus, forensic cases examined by the Forensic Anthropology Cape Town (FACT) in the Western Cape (WC) province of South Africa between 2006 and 2018 (n = 172 cases; n = 174 individuals) were retrospectively reviewed. In our study, a considerable number of individuals did not have the PMI estimations (31 %; 54/174) and the ability to estimate a PMI was significantly associated with skeletal completeness, unburnt remains, absence of clothing and the absence of entomological evidence (p < 0.05 for each). Significantly fewer cases had the PMI estimated after FACT was formalised in 2014 (p < 0.0001). One third of cases with PMI estimations were made with large open-ended ranges, making them less informative. Factors significantly associated with these broad PMI ranges were fragmented remains, absence of clothing and absence of entomological evidence (p < 0.05 for each). Most decedents (51 %; 87/174) were discovered in police precincts from high crime areas, yet a considerable number (47 %; 81/174) were also found in low crime and sparsely populated areas regularly used for recreational activities. Common sites of body discovery were vegetated areas (23 %; 40/174), followed by the roadside (15 %; 29/174), aquatic environments (11 %; 20/174) and farms (11 %; 19/174). Decedents were discovered exposed (35 %; 62/174), covered with items such as bedding or shrubs (14 %; 25/174) or buried (10 %; 17/174). Our data highlight gaps in forensic taphonomy studies and clearly informs what regional research is needed. Overall, our study demonstrates how forensic case information can inform regional forensic taphonomy studies to locate common areas and contexts for the discovery of decomposed bodies and encourages similar studies in other areas of the world.