Bail and Pretrial Release Decisions

Abstract

The racial threat perspective is tested using data from empirical studies of bail and pretrial release. Of the thirty empirical studies investigating race and bail/pretrial release, eighteen identified specific cities and counties, thereby permitting an examination of the effect of racial composition on the race and bail/pretrial release nexus. Results suggest a possible modification of the racial threat perspective as typically conceptualized. Other factors affecting this relationship are briefly discussed.     

Right target; wrong tactics: the trump administration upends East Asian order

President Donald Trump initiated a tariff war claiming that the ultimate target was mercantile Chinese economic practices. Numerous countries share such concerns about China. Yet the Trump administration’s approach is wrong for at least three big reasons. First, tariffs avoid addressing the most fundamental complaints about China while they undermine the longstanding and beneficial global liberal trade order. Second, the U.S. approach has been unilateral rather than multilateral, weakening America’s bargaining position while alienating close allies. Third, the Trump administration escalates what is an economic challenge into an existential threat, ignoring numerous benefits from Chinese policies as well as ignoring multiple areas where China has been a powerful global partner. Middle powers in Asia have acted collectively and individually to bolster the global trading system and avoid the worst consequences of the Trump actions while seeking to avoid making permanent binary choices between the United States and China. Beyond the immediate problems, the Trump tariff wars are creating, they also generate damaging second order effects that are undermining domestic and regional policies conducive to enhanced American strengths and an economically less mercantilist China.     

Workplace Assessment of Targeted Violence Risk: The Development and Reliability of the WAVR‐21

This study describes the development of the WAVR‐21, a structured professional judgment guide for the assessment of workplace targeted violence, and presents initial interrater reliability results. The 21‐item instrument codes both static and dynamic risk factors and change, if any, over time. Five critical items or red flag indicators assess violent motives, ideation, intent, weapons skill, and pre‐attack planning. Additional items assess the contribution of mental disorder, negative personality factors, situational factors, and a protective factor. Eleven raters each rated 12 randomly assigned cases from actual files of workplace threat scenarios. Summary interrater reliability correlation coefficients (ICCs) for overall presence of risk factors, risk of violence, and seriousness of the violent act were in the fair to good range, similar to other structured professional judgment instruments. A subgroup of psychologists who were coders produced an ICC of 0.76 for overall presence of risk factors. Some of the individual items had poor reliability for both clinical and statistical reasons. The WAVR‐21 appears to improve the structuring and organizing of empirically based risk‐relevant data and may enhance communication and decision making.     

The discipline of difference: Ethnolinguistic heterogeneity and corporal punishment

The minority threat hypothesis contends that growth in the size of a given minority population along with the ensuing competition for social and political resources will threaten existing social power arrangements. Regarding punishment specifically, the hypothesis states that dominant groups will support coercive measures to keep minority populations sufficiently oppressed. Using the minority threat hypothesis as our theoretical foundation, we posit that the more heterogeneous a population, the more social control will be necessary to maintain societal equilibrium for those in power. In effect a more personal, physical, and visceral response to criminal behavior will be deemed necessary in countries with high levels of fractionalization. This more focused form of social discipline will manifest as corporal punishment. Comparing modalities of punishment against varying population characteristics, we find that countries with higher levels of ethnic, linguistic, and religious fractionalization are more likely to employ corporal punishment against criminal offenders.     

A Review of: “Audrey Kurth Cronin and James M. Ludes, (eds.). Attacking Terrorism: Elements of a Grand Strategy.”

Because of its dynamic nature, those confronting the al-Qaeda threat must follow its evolution very closely. As demonstrated here, this task is particularly challenging when counterterrorism is carried out under the aegis of international organizations. This article explores the threat identification function of the al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee (also known as the 1267 Committee) charged with supervising the UN sanctions regime against al-Qaeda and its associates. Examination of the role of threat identification in the committee's work, and of the content of the threat analysis presented in the periodic reports of its subsidiary monitoring team, suggests the marginality of strategic threat assessment and underscores the constraints created by bureaucratic and political factors. The article also demonstrates the failure of the Committee and the monitoring team to thoroughly engage in central questions regarding al-Qaeda's nature, objectives, and organizational strategy.     

Aviation security and terrorism

Abstract

The author asserts that a sophisticated sabotage threat to U.S. international civil aviation has been well known to the U.S. government and air carriers since the early 1980s. He believes that both the U.S. government and air carriers have failed to do enough to counter this sabotage threat. He cites the findings of the President's Commission on Aviation Security and Terrorism (May 1990), and the enactment of the Aviation Security Improvement Act (Nov. 1990) to support his beliefs. The author concludes by providing a recipe for corrective action.     

Local racial context,campaign messaging,and public political behavior: A congressional campaign field experiment

Local racial contexts influence public opinion and voting behaviors. This paper argues that differences in community racial demographics also change public political behavior and influence the effectiveness of different campaign appeals to change public political behaviors of white Americans. Using data from an experiment run by a congressional primary campaign, I examine the responses of white Republicans to display a yard sign of a white Republican running against a Latino Republican. Consistent with theories of racial threat, whites in Latino neighborhoods were more likely to be willing to post yard signs. Moreover, the results also show that the effectiveness of different campaign appeals varies by neighborhood racial context. These findings show that racial diversity affects the public political behaviors of white Americans and, more importantly, changes the effectiveness of different campaign appeals.     

Warning behaviors and leaked intent: Potential new avenues to prevent mass shootings

On March 12, 2018, John Laubscher, owner of AJ’s Archery in Nelson, NY, had a gut feeling and refused to sell a rifle to a Syracuse University student—disrupting a mass shooting ( https://www.syracuse.com/crime/2018/04/how_gun_shop_owner_thwarted_on_the_edge_su_student_from_buying_high-capacity_rif.html . Accessed 10 Nov 2021). Prompted by this, we surveyed the opinions, beliefs, attitudes, and current practices of gun sellers in Onondaga County, NY, in regard to safe gun sales. The primary outcome was to determine which types of “concerning behaviors” are more likely to cause a seller to intervene in some manner. Secondary outcomes included the following: ascertaining the frequency of denials of customer purchases, frequency of reporting to law enforcement, and identifying any gaps that make it difficult for gun sellers to report behaviors to the authorities. Follow-up interviews were conducted with those who were willing to speak with the authors in more depth. A response rate of 12.9% was achieved. Sixty-two percent (62.5%) of respondents had some experience in uniformed services, with specialized training in mental or emotional crises, as well as deception detection. The majority found the training helpful in their gun selling career. Reasons for personal denials were reported as: “interest in illegal fittings,” “information revealed during conversation,” and “lack of basic knowledge of using the firearm looking to purchase.” Two respondents stated that due to a lack of a “reporting protocol,” they would not report any concerns to law enforcement. The study helps inform future research in regard to surveying more sellers across NY state and nationwide.     

A War on ‘Risk’? British Government and the National Security Strategy

This article explores the United Kingdom's National Security Strategy (NSS) since 2008, considering what the NSS discloses about how contemporary Whitehall conceptualises ‘risks’ to Britain. It contends that rather than being a strategy in the Clausewitzian sense, the NSS represents a political exercise in risk management. In addressing a range of quite different problems, the NSS suggests that those in Whitehall now conceive their role as being to shield the citizen from any conceivable threat to their safety, wellbeing, and even emotional security. Yet this constitutes a highly expansive vision, and elevates the state's provision of public goods to a potentially unmanageable level.