RACIAL THREAT,PARTISAN POLITICS,AND RACIAL DISPARITIES IN PRISON ADMISSIONS: A PANEL ANALYSIS*

Why are racial disparities in imprisonment so pronounced? Studies of alternative outcomes in the criminal justice system find positive relationships between minority presence and punitive outcomes. Therefore, it is puzzling that the studies of racial incarceration ratios find negative relationships between this presence and such discrepancies. We use a pooled time‐series design to resolve this dilemma. Successful Republican attempts to link crime with public concerns about a dangerous racial underclass also suggest that where these racial appeals are successful, African Americans should face higher incarceration rates than whites. In contrast to prior research, our results are consistent with findings about other criminal justice outcomes. They show that an inverted, U‐shaped, nonlinear relationship is present between African‐American presence and racial disparities in imprisonments. Additional results indicate that the presence of African Americans in deep southern states and greater support for Republican presidential candidates together with increases in the most menacing crime (which often is blamed on African Americans) also help to explain these discrepant racial prison admission rates.     

INTERGROUP AND INTRAGROUP VIOLENCE: IS VIOLENT CRIME AN EXPRESSION OF GROUP CONFLICT OR SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION?*

The impact of residential turnover and compositional change at the neighborhood level on local patterns of crime lies at the center of most ecological studies of crime and violence. Of particular interest is how racial and ethnic change impacts intragroup and intergroup crime. Although many studies have examined this effect using city‐level data, few have evaluated it using neighborhood‐level data. Using incident‐level data for the South Bureau Policing Area of the Los Angeles Police Department aggregated to census tracts, we use a novel methodology to construct intragroup and intergroup rates of robbery and assaults. The South Bureau has experienced dramatic demographic change as it has transitioned from a predominately African‐American area to a predominately Latino area. We find support for the social disorganization model, as racial/ethnic transition in nearby tracts leads to greater levels of intergroup violence by both groups as well as to more intragroup violence by Latinos. Such neighborhoods seem to experience a breakdown in norms, which leads to higher levels of violence in all forms. Particularly noteworthy is that intragroup crime is highest in all settings, which includes the most heterogeneous tracts. We also find support for the consolidated inequality theory, as greater inequality across the two groups leads to more violence by the disadvantaged group.     

The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism

Improvements have been made in identifying the prevalence of risk factors/indicators for violent extremism. A consistent problem is the lack of base rates. How to develop base rates is of equal concern. This study has two aims: (i) compare two methods for developing base rates; the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT) and direct questioning, (ii) generate base rates in a general population sample and compare these to a sample of lone-actor terrorists (n = 125). We surveyed 2108 subjects from the general population. Participants were recruited from an online access panel and randomly assigned to one of three conditions; direct survey, control, or UCT. Survey items were based on a lone-actor terrorist codebook developed from the wider literature. Direct questioning was more suitable under our study conditions where UCT resulted in deflation effects. Comparing the base rates identified a number of significant differences: (i) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated propensity indicators related to a cognitive susceptibility, and a crime- and/or violence-supportive morality more often; the general sample demonstrated protective factors more often, (ii) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated situational indicators related to a crime- and/or violence-supportive morality more often, whereas the general sample experienced situational stressors more often, (iii) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated indicators related to exposure to extremism more often. Results suggest there are measurable differences in the prevalence of risk factors between lone-actor terrorists and the general population. However, no single factor “predicts” violent extremism. This bears implications for our understanding of the interrelation of risk and protective factors, and for the risk assessment of violent extremism.     

Threat,emboldenment, or both? The effects of political power on violent hate crimes*

How do expressions of support or opposition by the U.S. federal government, influence violent hate crimes against specific racial and ethnic minorities? In this article, we test two hypotheses derived from Blalock's (1967) conceptualization of intergroup power contests. The political threat hypothesis predicts that positive government attention toward specific groups would lead to more hateful violence directed against them. The emboldenment hypothesis predicts that negative government attention toward specific groups would also lead to more hateful violence directed against them. Using combined data on U.S. government actions and federal hate crime statistics from 1992 through 2012, vector autoregression models provide support for both hypotheses, depending on the protected group involved. We conclude that during this period, African Americans were more vulnerable to hate crimes motivated by political threat, and Latinx persons were more vulnerable to hate crimes motivated by emboldenment.     

美国东北亚政策的进攻性现实主义解读

以米尔斯海默为代表的进攻性现实主义是现实主义理论的最新发展,其从历史分析与理论论证的角度为美国的东北亚政策提出了"离岸平衡手"的解读与构想。然而朝核危机爆发后,美国的东北亚政策正朝着建立多边安全机制的方向发展,进攻性现实主义提出的"中国威胁论"也不攻自破。     

MINORITY THREAT AND POLICE STRENGTH FROM 1980 TO 2000: A FIXED‐EFFECTS ANALYSIS OF NONLINEAR AND INTERACTIVE EFFECTS IN LARGE U.S. CITIES*

Many studies have assessed threat theory by investigating the relationships between the size of minority populations and police strength. Yet these investigations analyzed older data with cross‐sectional designs. This study uses a fixed‐effects panel design to detect nonlinear and interactive relationships between minority presence and the per capita number of police in large U.S. cities in the last three census years. The findings show that the relationship between racial threat and the population‐corrected number of police officers has recently become considerably stronger. In accord with theoretically based expectations, tests for interactions show that segregated cities with larger African American populations have smaller departments. The coefficients on another interaction effect suggest that racial segregation leads to reductions in police strength in the South perhaps because officers are less likely to intervene in residentially isolated black neighborhoods in this region.     

Assessing and managing the threat posed by fixated persons in Australia

In July 2013, the Australian State of Queensland established the first fixated threat assessment service outside Europe to specifically assess and manage lone, fixated persons. The Queensland Fixated Threat Assessment Centre (QFTAC) is a collaboration between the Intelligence, Counter-Terrorism and Major Events Command of the Queensland Police Service and Queensland Health’s Forensic Mental Health Service. It has been modelled on the original Fixated Threat Assessment Centre (FTAC) which has been operating in the United Kingdom since 2006, with modifications to reflect local needs and differing mental health and legal practices. This paper describes the background to the development of these services, the rationale for their expansion to the Asia Pacific region, and outcome data for QFTAC’s first 12 months of operations. These findings support the efficacy of proactive FTAC-style approaches to managing the threat posed by fixated individuals to public figures and the wider community.     

上级命令不免责原则中相关概念的分析

上级命令不免除责任原则是国际刑法的基本原则之一。对该原则中的上级命令“明显非法”、“道德选择”、“胁迫”等有关概念作进一步的剖析。     

基于营救目的实施的逼供行为之法律效果——以欧洲人权法院Gfgen v.Germany案判决为例

在欧洲人权法院看来,基于营救目的实施的逼供行为违反《欧洲人权公约》第3条,应当排除被告人于审前程序作出的所有认罪口供。在被告人于庭审时重新作出认罪口供的情况下,欧洲人权法院认为,以不人道待遇获取的认罪口供洐生的实物证据可以不排除。内国法院使用这样的实物证据用于检验该认罪口供的真实性并未侵犯被告人不自证己罪的权利和公平审判的权利。     

Financial systems,corporate control and capital accumulation

The rise of financial markets, backed by the revolution in information technology,has been one of the pillars of the new economy. Asset price inflation, financed by debt, has now become the driving force in capital accumulation and equity-linked markets for corporate control have significant effects on both corporate strategic management and the growth of the business sector. This paper develops a model to study these relationships. One component of the new circumstances is that an active market for control forces firms to boost their share price in response to the threat of take-over and, to maintain a minimum return on equity, they have to distribute dividends or buy back shares. As a consequence, the share of profits dedicated to financing internal growth is reduced, corporations increase their indebtedness and thereby become constrained by banks. The interplay of these multi-dimensional pressures delivers a straightforward, but nonetheless important lesson: everything else being equal, the more active the market for control, the lower the growth rate.