The Error in “Error Rate”: Why Error Rates Are So Needed,Yet So Elusive

Establishing error rates is crucial for knowing how well one is performing, determining whether improvement is needed, measuring whether interventions are effective, as well as for providing transparency. However, the flurry of activities in establishing error rates for the forensic sciences has largely overlooked some fundamental issues that make error rates a problematic construct and limit the ability to obtain a meaningful error rate. These include knowing the ground truth, establishing appropriate databases, determining what counts as an error, characterizing what is an acceptable error rate, ecological validity, and transparency within the adversarial legal system. Without addressing these practical and theoretical challenges, the very notion of a meaningful error rate is limited.     

Evaluation of Suspected Counterfeit Pharmaceutical Tablets Declared to Contain Controlled Substances Using Handheld Raman Spectrometers

This study describes the performance of handheld Raman devices for determining whether suspect pharmaceutical tablets declared to contain controlled substances were consistent with authentic (CWA) or not consistent with authentic (NCWA) tablets using a simple, rapid, field-friendly method capable of being used by nonexperts. Twenty-five authentic products and 84 known NCWA tablets were examined using three “parent” devices for a total of 327 analyses. On average, the parent devices yielded a true pass rate of 100%, a true fail rate of 98.4%, a false pass rate of 1.6%, and a false fail rate of 0%. The methods/libraries were then transferred to 13 identical “daughter” devices, which were used to examine 10 suspect finished dosage forms in duplicate (six known NCWA tablets and four authentic tablets) for a total of 260 measurements. On average, the daughter devices had a true pass rate of 100%, a true fail rate of 95.5%, a false pass rate of 4.5%, and a false fail rate of 0.0%. These data demonstrate that the parent–daughter electronic transfer method was successful, which permits the ability to develop methods in the laboratory that can be seamlessly pushed out to field devices. The methods can then be used to (i) prioritize samples for additional testing using other more time-consuming laboratory-based techniques needed to detect and quantify active ingredients and (ii) help support the interdiction of dangerous tablets at ports of entry, thereby preventing them from reaching the supply chain.     

心理痕迹在系列杀人案件侦查中的运用

系列杀人案件在我国各地时有发生,问题突出,危害后果严重,把握这类案件的犯罪规律,研究侦查对策,将对有效预防、遏止和打击系列杀人案件起到积极作用。     

经济犯罪侦查追逃研究评述

追逃是经济犯罪侦查的重要环节,经侦部门在追逃实践中积累了经验,这一领域的研究也取得了一些成果。从现有资料来看,有关研究涉及在逃经济犯罪嫌疑人及其逃匿行为特点;经侦追逃的策略与方法;当前经侦追逃工作中存在的问题与对策。目前的研究对于追逃实践具有一定的指导意义,但也有待于进一步深化。     

四种国产小口径运动枪支射击弹壳痕迹特点

随着射击运动枪支的更新换代,利用淘汰小口径运动枪支进行违法犯罪活动的案件也越来越多。为了更好地对老式运动枪支射击弹壳上所留痕迹进行技术鉴定,我们选用了常见的庆华标准5.6mm手枪、西湖Ⅰ型慢射手枪、健卫一九5.6mm步枪、峨嵋-752型5.6mm标准步枪和三角牌5.6mm长弹进行了射击实验,对上述四种枪支的射击弹壳的留痕部位、痕迹形态、形成机理、鉴定价值等问题逐发进行观察、测量、统计、分析、研究,得出一些结论。     

物证检验鉴定在交通肇事案件中的作用

物证检验鉴定中的痕迹检验鉴定和尸体检验鉴定,不仅在一般刑事案件中应用广泛,而且能够为交通管理部门办理交通肇事案件,尤其是交通肇事逃逸或不确定驾驶员的案件提供有力的技术支持,在道路交通肇事案件的处理中为责任的划分和驾驶员的认定起着重要的作用。     

抵押物转让的效力与抵押权的实现

抵押物转让后抵押权实现的问题在我国法律中规定不明确,导致抵押权在抵押物转让后是否可以追及实现理解上的混乱。通过抵押物转让行为的效力和转让后抵押权追及力的分析,认为抵押物的转让与是否通知抵押权人、告知受让人没有关系。抵押物转让后,登记生效的抵押权不受影响;协议生效的抵押权、公证过的抵押权不受影响,未公证的不得对抗第三人。     

Identifiler体系在单亲血缘关系鉴定中应用价值的研究

目的　研究 16基因位点Identifiler体系在单亲血缘关系法医鉴定中的应用价值。　方法　对无关个体中随机抽样组成的假设父—子二联体 10 0例、正常人群中已知真父—子二联体 10 0例及已知非父—子二联体 10 0例、实际单亲血缘关系亲子鉴定案 2 2 8例、特意省去母亲的二联体鉴定案 136例 ,应用Identifiler体系的 16基因位点进行检测 ,得出每案例的RCP值 ,将检测结果同应用其他体系检测的结果比对 ,同三联体检测结果比对 ,同真实情况比对 ,计算出单独使用Identifiler体系在单亲血缘关系法医鉴定中的正确率。　结果　对 2 2 8例单亲鉴定案应用Identifiler体系检测的结果 ,同应用ProfilerPlus和Cofiler两个体系再加用 2 4个其他位点银染检测 (共 37个位点 )的结果完全相同 ;对无关个体 10 0例及真父—子二联体 10 0例及非父—子二联体 10 0例 ,用Identifiler体系检测的结果同调查核实的真实情况完全相符 ;对 136例特意省去母亲的二联体案 ,用Identifiler体系检测的结果同原实际检案中三联体检测的结果完全相同。　结论　单独使用Identifiler体系完全可以解决法医亲子鉴定中的单亲血缘关系鉴定问题。     

HLA-DRB1基因分型芯片的法医物证学应用价值研究

目的对HLA-DRB1基因分型芯片在个体识别中的应用价值进行研究。方法根据HLA-DRB1基因座不同等位基因的独特序列设计探针,制成分型芯片。将待测样品DNA用末端标记了CY5的引物进行PCR扩增,产物与芯片进行杂交,根据杂交产生的荧光信号值确定样品在HLA-DRB1位点的基因型。将这一方法应用于561份样本的HLA-DRB1基因分型,根据基因型分布统计分析其法医学应用价值。同时,进行了家系调查和方法灵敏度分析,并应用于部分案例。结果利用微量检材,HLA-DRB1基因芯片可检测DRB1位点等位基因26个,基因型的分布符合Hardy-Weinberg平衡定律,该位点的观察杂合度(Ho)为0.888,期望杂合度(He)为0.902,多态信息含量(PIC)为0.893,平均非父排除率(PE)为0.801。家系调查和案例运用的结果表明,HLA-DRB1位点等位基因由亲代向子代的传递符合孟德尔遗传定律。结论HLA-DRB1为高度多态位点,其基因分型芯片可在亲子鉴定和个体识别中发挥重要作用。