Voter overrepresentation,vote misreporting,and turnout bias in postelection surveys

Figures from postelection surveys often grossly overestimate election turnout. Two distinct phenomena are responsible for this gap: overrepresentation of actual voters and vote misreporting by actual nonvoters among survey respondents. Previous accounts of turnout bias are inconclusive in that they either focus on a single component, or fail to separate between the two. In this paper, we formally decompose turnout bias in election surveys into its constituent parts, assess their empirical prevalence and heterogeneity using an extensive collection of 49 vote validation studies from six countries, and employ Bayesian meta regression techniques to account for cross-study differences. Our results indicate that both election and survey characteristics such as actual voter turnout and survey response rates differentially affect the components of turnout bias. We conclude with a discussion of the threats and potentials of our findings for survey-based comparative electoral research.     

A petro-formula and its world: calculating profits,labour and production in the assembling of Anglo-Iranian oil

Abstract

The paper explores how the calculative work of three different formulas shaped the history of oil in Iran in the first half of the twentieth century. British investors, Iranian government officials, oil workers and other actors battled over the construction and employment of a formula during the course of three different but interconnected disputes over oil profits, labour and production rates. Opening up the dynamics of a petroleum formula exposes how, on each occasion, certain political possibilities were opened or closed in the co-assembling of the Iranian state and Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Scholarship on oil and Iran has not been able to account for the kinds of non-human actors, tools and machinery involved in the building of such a large-scale political project as an oil industry. Thus the paper draws on the current research on formulas and markets in science and technology studies but takes a different direction by looking at their political construction in the resolution of not just financial and economic problems, but social and political ones.     

Insurgent capitalism: Island,bricolage and the re-making of finance

Abstract

Drawing on recent discussions of the material cultures of markets and of financial innovation as bricolage, this paper explores the development of Island, a new share-trading venue set up in 1995. We examine Island's roots in a very specific conflict in the US financial markets and in the information libertarianism of ‘hacker culture’, and examine the material bricolage involved in Island's construction. The paper also outlines the processes that led to a dramatic ‘Latourian’ change of scale: Island was originally a ‘micro’ development on the fringes of US markets, but within little more than a decade key features of Island became close to compulsory, as the nature of North American and Western European share trading changed utterly.     

Feeding finance: a critical account of the shifting relationships between finance,food and farming

Abstract

Whether in the form of commodity index funds, farmland investment funds or commodities trading by agri-food companies, there is evidence of an increasingly close relationship between finance, food and agriculture. While these developments have received some critical attention of late, existing accounts of the ‘financialization of food’ are limited to the extent that they view finance as an external force with emphasis placed on the unnaturalness of its relationship with agriculture and its distortive effects on agricultural markets. Recognizing that finance and agriculture have a long history, this paper offers a more nuanced account of the place of financialization in the agricultural sector. Specifically, it examines how agriculture's emergence as an investment opportunity has reconfigured the terrain of agricultural interests and logics while creating new knowledge demands and agricultural visibilities. These dynamics are explored through a case study of the role of finance and processes of financialization in the recent demise of the Canadian Wheat Board as a state marketing agency. Through this discussion, the paper offers valuable insights into not only the reworking of agriculture as a particular type of financial space, but also the nature and limits of financialization itself as a way of engaging with the world beyond urban financial centres.     

Subsuming the ground: how local realities of the Fergana Valley,the Narmada Dams and the BTC pipeline are put to use on the Web

Abstract

Studies of the use of information and communication technologies (ICTs) by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) seek to come to terms with a particular problem of political globalization. While global forums are widely attributed the capacity to put in place the conditions for the resolution of local issues, at the same time these sites are seen to place unacceptable restrictions on the articulation of the issues from localist perspectives. ICTs occupy a special position with respect to this dilemma, as they are both seen to be part of the problem, a factor in the enrolment of NGOs in global governance networks, and part of the solution, as instruments of alternative, translocal forms of political organization. This piece shows how a particular style of Web analysis, informed by actor-network theory, demonstrates the need to complicate certain assumptions that inform both these critical and these constructive perspectives. In a series of exercises of network analysis on the Web, we open up for questioning the assumption of the ‘primacy of the local’ on which these perspectives tend to rely. We suggest that the role of ICTs in the globalization of NGO practices should rather be understood in terms of the reformatting of issues for transnational networks. In our interpretations of issue networks on the Web, we argue for the importance of taking more seriously the ways in which the Web highlights the practical constraints on issue articulation faced by NGOs. By way of conclusion, this paper draws attention to the fact that Web studies present a notable extension to the sites studied by actor-network theory and related approaches in assemblages studies, as it compels consideration of the media circulations characteristic of publicity.     

The material production of virtuality: innovation,cultural geography and facticity in derivatives markets

Abstract

In the existing literature, the ‘virtual’ nature of financial derivatives is often commented upon, but how these products are brought into being has seldom been examined in any depth. This article analyses the development since 1970 of organized financial-derivatives trading in the US and UK (in particular, of derivatives exchanges and of the British financial spread-betting industry), with the goal of examining the ‘material production of virtuality’. The article explores the similarities and differences between technological innovation and innovation in derivatives; discusses the role of the ‘internal’ cultures of financial markets and of the wider culture (in particular, the legal traces of hostility to gambling); and analyses the requirement of ‘facticity’ for the measure underlying a cash-settled derivative, focusing in particular on the most important such measure, British Bankers’ Association LIBOR (London interbank offered rate).     

Legitimating totalitarianism: Melodrama and mass politics in North Korean film

This article attempts to analyze the construction and maintenance of political legitimacy in North Korea through the lens of its state-produced films. After classifying North Korea’s regime as totalitarian, we then discuss the strategies of legitimation available given this classification, and highlight the importance of ideology therein. Next, we demonstrate the importance of film within North Korea’s ideological apparatus and thematically analyze six North Korean films dating from 1948-2006. From this analysis, we situate the social role of film in contemporary North Korea and argue that it will remain a crucial force amongst the country’s various attempts to maintain legitimacy.     

Upset over Air Pollution: Analyzing Upset Event Emissions at Petroleum Refineries

The Clean Air Act (CAA) controls routine emissions at petroleum refineries, by creating limits and penalties for excess emissions. The CAA offers provisions for upset events, air emissions released because of unforeseen or unavoidable circumstances, if companies report the emissions and take corrective action. States enforce upset event rules and many states provide exemptions for a variety of circumstances, which may allow upset emissions to become a substantial, yet mostly unregulated source of emissions. We catalog the quantity and type of emissions generated during upset events at 18 Texas petroleum refineries from 2003 to 2008. We find that upset events occur frequently at these facilities and are collectively large in magnitude, emitting a combined total of 75 million lbs of emissions. In a select number of cases, single upset events exceeded annual emissions reported to the Toxics Release Inventory. Future research should assess the accuracy of upset event reporting and impact of upset events on environmental health.