Micro-models of criminal careers: A synthesis of the criminal careers and life course approaches via semiparametric mixed poisson regression models,with empirical applications

Much recent research and debate in criminology have centered around how to conceptualize and model longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal acts committed by individuals. Two approaches dominate this controversy. One originates in thecriminal careers paradigm, which emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offending groups in the general population—thus leading to a distinction between incidence and prevalence of criminal offending, a focus on the onset, persistence, and desistence of criminal careers, and the possibility that criminals are a distinctive group with constant high rates of offending. Another approach places criminal events within a broader context ofstudies of the life course by explicitly substituting the conceptualization of “social events” for that of “criminal careers”. With respect to analytical models, this approach emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offenders with respect to order of criminal events from first to second to higher orders and thus suggests an analysis of the “risks” or “hazards” of offending by order of offense. Some extant commentaries on the criminal careers and life course approaches to conceptualizing and modeling longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal events committed by individuals have emphasized their differences and incompatibilities. In contrast, we apply recently developed semiparametric mixed Poisson regression techniques to develop conditions under which the two conceptual/modeling approaches are formally equivalent. We also modify the semiparametric mixed Poisson regression model of criminal careers to incorporate information on order of the delinquent/criminal event and develop an empirical application. This modification demonstrates the complementarity of the criminal careers and life course approaches, even though they have somewhat different foci.     

文化自觉与文化研究的方法论问题

文化自觉不仅是对文化客体形式的自觉,更是人本身对于自己作为文化主体的自觉;文化自觉也不仅是对本民族流传下来的书面历史文献资料的自觉,更要把握文化发展的内在规律。文化自觉问题涉及文化研究的方法论问题,涉及是从观念出发还是从物质实践出发的问题。     

马克思主义法学与解构主义法学之比较

马克思主义法学与新兴的解构主义法学之间,在对权力和利益对法的影响上、在方法策略上,在同具批判性上,具有共通之处。当然,两者也存在明显的差别,表现在理论的出路,普遍意义等问题上。解构主义法学对我们的法学研究有某些积极意义。     

邓小平制度建设思想的人学思考

邓小平制度建设思想是邓小平理论的重要组成部分。邓小平制度建设思想始终体现着对人的关怀,凝结着对人的全面发展问题的思考。从制度哲学的角度来看,改革开放二十多年,是解放人的二十多年,而人的解放又极大地推进了我国社会的进步和发展。     

我国政策执行研究现状的实证分析

政策执行是公共政策研究的重要领域,政策执行的研究对于正在转轨中的中国有着很强的现实意义。目前,我国政策执行研究呈现逐年递增的趋势,且有很强的实践导向,但在实地和实验研究方面几乎是空白。今后更应注重理论的运用和研究方法的科学化,关注信息网络对政策执行理论的影响,注重政策手段的研究,真正使政策执行的研究更具中国特色。     

Making the grade: infrastructural semiotics and derivative market outcomes on the Chicago Board of Trade and New Orleans Cotton Exchange, 1856–1909

This paper contributes to a socio-technical analysis of derivatives by offering an infrastructural explanation of divergent outcomes on two early American futures markets. It takes as the starting-point of analysis the classification systems by which these futures markets were constitutively linked to underlying markets in agricultural commodities. Despite the formal similarity of these systems, their contrasting implementation – i.e. how grading was accomplished and integrated into practice – produced classifications with dissimilar semiotic qualities. This semiotic distinction is shown to have promoted divergent economic behaviours and outcomes on the two markets: high-risk speculation and volatility on the Chicago Board of Trade, low-risk hedging and stability on the New Orleans Cotton Exchange. The paper thus argues that treating classifications in their semiotic capacity yields an analysis that can connect foundational infrastructures and market-level outcomes in meaningful, non-deterministic ways.     

Reading aloud as performance and its representation on television programmes for children

ABSTRACT

The social practice of reading aloud picture books to children, or shared reading, has been represented on many televisions programmes broadcast across English-speaking countries. This article views shared reading as a performance, and explores its transformation on two television shows for children and the potential of such shows to promote reading engagement and literacy development. Taking a critical multimodal perspective, we analyse shared reading in real life and on television as a social practice, focusing on the ways the participants talk about the picture book, relate it to exterior texts or activities, and legitimise shared reading through the employment of multimodal and interactive strategies. The analysis reveals significant differences between actual adult–child shared reading and its representation on television. The comparison illustrates the potential benefits and limitations of television shows in which picture books are read to the viewer, in terms of promoting shared reading among families and supporting young children’s emergent literacy development.     

近5年来国际女性研究领域研究热点及知识基础可视化分析

基于多维尺度分析和文献共被引分析对Web of Science引文索引数据库中近5年来女性研究领域的7101篇文献的研究热点和知识基础进行分析的结果表明,该领域的研究热点主要聚为5大类别,分别是女性主义研究、性别研究、女性社会研究、女性暴力研究、女性心理研究,其中性别研究居于核心位置,将其他部分有机结合了起来。该领域的知识基础中包含13篇关键文献,较好地代表了该领域的发展水平。     

论女性学的继承性与民族性

继承性与民族性是中国特色哲学社会科学的首要特点。通过解析什么是女性学的学科继承性与民族性,分析坚持女性学继承性与民族性的学科意义与现实价值、存在的问题及其主要成因,并在这些基础上进一步提出体现中国女性学继承性与民族性的对策思路,具有重要理论和实践价值。