Winning at the polls and in the polls: the incumbency advantage in surveys of U.S. house voters

The success of House incumbents at the polls is well known and has been studied extensively. This paper focuses on the incumbents' success in the polls: the support bestowed upon incumbents by survey respondents is substantially higher than that received from the voters. The incumbency advantage at the polls, estimated at about 10% in the most recent elections, is almost doubled when measured in the polls. The data, drawn from the 1982–1996 National Election Studies, show that respondents do not reward all winners; candidates elected to open seats have not benefitted from the kind of bounce consistently enjoyed by winning incumbents. In addition, the pattern of respondents' misreports appears to be inconsistent with earlier explanations based on instrument effects. Respondent bias should be accounted for in order to reach correct estimates of the incumbency advantage in individual-level data.     

论北洋军阀政府时期的报刊立法活动及主要特点

袁世凯当政时期及其死后的北洋军阀政府在报刊方面开展了一系列立法活动.这些立法活动表现出来的主要特点是政权性质改变而名号照旧、报刊法制成果主要集中在袁世凯当政时期、字面上"民主自由"和实质上封建专制手段共用等.     

Socio-cultural aspects of the relationship between the EU and East Asia, with particular reference to China

This paper presents a comparative study about words and about sovereignty; about the ancestry of the words that construct the discourse of sovereignty in the context of China; about the analysis and interpretation of the civic discourse and the rhetoric that construct Chinese sovereignty in the field of international relations and foreign policy, and about the consequences of this analysis and interpretation for the formulation of EU foreign policy with regard to East Asia, especially China, and the United States, as well as the feedback that notions of sovereignty have on the construction of Chinese civic discourse. For many contemporary Chinese thinkers, China should modernise without repeating the process of modernism, should leap over the system of values established by the Enlightenment that seemed to justify imperialism, and develop an economy and institutions that would serve to create wealth and to raise the standard of living of the population, without imposing values that are advantageous to a “West” that is already wealthy. They have identified a cultural dissidence within developed societies that advocates the values of postmodernism as a way of rejecting the values of modernism. In this context, they advocate the possibility of modernising their society without having to accept the imposition of values that originated in societies that have already begun to question them. In this way, China could reach postmodernism in a relatively short period of history without having to pass through the traumas that characterised the development of modernism in the “West” over a period of centuries (it would be difficult not to discern echoes of Mao Zedong’s “Great Leap Forward” in these Chinese versions of the postmodernist paradigm). The communicative strategy to be adopted by the EU in the rhetorical construction of its dialogue with China should be fully cognizant of and sensitive to the criteria of China’s moral order as outlined in this study and specified in the Five Principles (mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity; non-aggression; non-interference in each other’s internal affairs; equality and mutual benefit; and peaceful coexistence), the Spirit of Shanghai and the ASEAN Way, with special emphasis on mutual recognition, parity of esteem, and mutual benefit. Any other discourse will be perceived semiotically as unilateralist and exploitative. Respect for diversity is paramount, and the ability to harmonise diversity is a major function of Chinese political and cultural thought. “Harmony” and “peace” are the same word in classical Chinese: hé ( hépíng is the modern word for “peace” and héshēng is the modern word for “harmony”). As a result, any practice that produced harmony, such as music or cooking, was a form of training for maintaining peace, social cohesion and solidarity in society (or among nations).

比较文学学科的"死亡"与"再生"

传统意义上的比较文学学科在经历了多次"危机"之后其衰落之趋势是无可挽回的,但这种衰落恰恰为其"再生"奠定了内在的基础,此也即比较文学学科内部的反拨.在这方面,包括中国学者在内的东方和第三世界学者将对一门新的比较文学学科的"再生"有所作为.比较文学的最高境界是世界文学阶段.那种为比较而比较的牵强比附式的"比较文学"确实应该死亡,而一种新的融入了文化研究和世界文学成分的比较文学学科将在这其中获得再生.     

追寻村落--对两种不同的人类学田野研究的省思

人类学视野下的村落研究所引起的争议,促使人类学者不断地反省和思考人类学田野研究的理论和方法."回访"与"超越"是两种不同的研究路径,也是对人类学田野研究的有益省思."回访"不仅仅是延伸了先驱者作品的学术生命和意义,更重要的是对过程中的社区进行新知识基础上的再诠释.而"超越"所展现的学术意义则不仅仅在于努力赋予人类学视野下村落研究的合法性,还在于在超越中使其得到持续发展.     

新时期以来唐诗学研究述论

新时期以来的唐诗学研究,在学科的理论性探讨上取得了初步的成绩,在唐诗学史的考察上呈现出多方位展开的态势,标示着唐诗学研究正日益成为甚具生长性的古典文学分支学科。同时,也存在研究视域不够开阔、理论探讨尚嫌单薄等不足。     

关于加强公安情报信息工作的几点思考

公安情报信息工作是整个公安工作的根基。就目前来看,公安情报信息工作还存在一些制约发展的不利因素。对此,必须以公安基层基础建设年为契机,大力加强公安情报信息工作,构建跨警种、跨地区的公安大情报信息系统格局,以切实发挥公安情报信息在公安实战中的作用。     

全球化语境中的中国妇女学建设

中国妇女学全球视野与其行动的均衡点决定中国妇女学的生命力,即妇女学能否在国内广泛渗透和扎根,成为社会机体的一个有机组成部分,从而影响、改变民众的日常生活、行为、观念,而不仅仅停留在教学与科研环节,以学术为壁垒,把妇女学看作是精英妇女的自留地。妇女学发展需要兼具两个功能,一个是专业化,突出对专业人员的提高功能,另一个是通俗化,强调对公众的普及功能。中国妇女学建设是手段,而不是目的,是开始,而不是结束。     

中国古代史研究21世纪展望--"21世纪中国历史学展望学术讨论会"中国古代史组讨论纪实

2002年5月云南大学召开了"21世纪中国历史学展望学术讨论会",这是进入21世纪以后中国历史学界的一次盛会。与会专家学者对20世纪的中国历史学研究进行总结,畅谈了对21世纪中国历史学的展望。中国古代史组的专家学者们在研讨中,提出一些重要的学术见解和改革建议。这对今后中国古代史的学科发展乃至整个中国历史学的发展,都将具有重要意义。     

注重调查研究 发展民族理论——纪念"六山六水"民族调查20周年

“六山六水”调查 (贵州民族调查 ) ,是我国民族研究历史上未曾有过的重大学术研究工程 ,为贵州省的民族研究事业、为全国的民族研究事业积累了宝贵的资料 ,将成为世界各民族文化重要的一部分。本文乃是对这一调查研究工程的学术价值和意义提出自己的看法。