Crises and critical junctures in authoritarian regimes: addressing uprisings’ temporalities and discontinuities

Abstract

In this article, we aim at sharpening common understandings of the notion of political crisis to better explain the trajectories of authoritarian transformations during popular uprisings. We make three major claims. First, we propose a definition of crisis as brief moments of institutional fluidity and openness in which a process can take different directions. We delineate the crisis concept from the concept of critical junctures and outline how our approach contributes to the methodological debate on ‘near misses’. Second, we indicate how the de-institutionalisation processes leading up to a crisis are to be analytically distinguished from within-crisis moments. We argue in favour of a discontinuity approach that takes into account the different temporalities of gradual lead-up processes and rapid within-crisis dynamics. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical and analytical reasoning with concrete cases from the authoritarian crises of the Arab uprisings, whilst suggesting that our argument can travel to other areas of research in which crisis narratives have gained prominence.     

论合作社的法律地位

合作社是自愿联合起来的人们通过共同所有与民主管理的组织以实现其共同的经济、社会与文化目标与抱负的自治联合体。合作社的基本价值是自助、民主、平等、公平和团结;合作社社员信奉诚实、开放、社会责任与关怀他人的道德价值观。合作社的原则包括社员资格的自愿和开放、社员民主管理等七项。合作社与集体制是两种极易混淆,但实存重大区别的制度。由于合作社类型的多样性,规模大小不一,因此不宜将合作社的主体地位统一确定为法人,而应由合作社发起人自行选择。既可以选择为有限责任性质合作社、股份合作社等法人形式,也可选择为合伙组织、合作社分社等非法人组织形式。     

Stakeholders’ relations and power dynamics in development cooperation: lessons learnt from Egypt

One of the key factors why international development cooperation programmes do not achieve sustainable results is their failure to respond to the dynamics of local stakeholders’ relations. This article highlights the case of a fruit and vegetable market in an informal area of Greater Cairo that was redeveloped by a programme supported by German International Cooperation. Although the market was developed using participatory methods, the vendors deserted it. Analysis reveals the conflicting interests of vendors and the district administration were reflected in divergent models of market operation. The paper recommends that development cooperation recognise the legitimacy of existing power structures and stakeholders’ relations.     

Factors Affecting Some Failure Arab States Uprising and Obstacles for Development

Some Arab states witnessed a number of uprising, which ranged from violent reactions toward their people, such as in Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Yemen, while some countries were trying to prevent these revolutions by using different measures, in which can be described as ＂cosmetic surgeries＂, such as Morocco and Tunisia. There are a number of factors, which leads Arab states to what is known ＂the failed state＂. These states for more than three decades had failed to achieve a minimum of political stability, well-being, economic, and social development for their people, to keep up with global changes in political, economic, and social reforms. Some political factors affecting Arab uprising, including lack of political reform, democracy, human rights violations, illegitimate governments, and absence of anti-corruption policy. Arab states governments had failed to achieve the minimum requirement of economic development, to solve economic chronic difficulties in transitional economies, in fields, such as food and water security, human resources development, and economic development at local and regional levels. In addition, there are social factors ignite the Arab uprising. Including high rate of unemployment, deterioration of industrial and agricultural sectors, uncontrolled migration to cities consequently increase pressure on social services and economic development of cities.     

Islamism and the state after the Arab uprisings: Between people power and state power

This paper examines the trajectories of different Islamist trends in the light of the Arab uprisings. It proposes a distinction between statist and non-statist Islamism to help understand the multiplicity of interactions between Islamists and the state, particularly after 2011. It is outlined how statist Islamists (Islamist parties principally) can contribute to the stabilization and democratization of the state when their interactions with other social and political actors facilitate consensus building in national politics. By contrast when these interactions are conflictual, it has a detrimental impact on both the statist Islamists, and the possibility of democratic politics at the national level. Non statist-Islamists (from quietist salafi to armed jihadi) who prioritize the religious community over national politics are directly impacted by the interactions between statist Islamists and the state, and generally tend to benefit from the failure to build a consensus over democratic national politics. Far more than nationally-grounded statist Islamists, non-statist Islamists shape and are shaped by the regional dynamics on the Arab uprisings and the international and transnational relations between the different countries and conflict areas of the Middle East. The Arab uprisings and their aftermath reshaped pre-existing national and international dynamics of confrontation and collaboration between Islamists and the state, and between statist and non-statists Islamists, for better (Tunisia) and for worse (Egypt).     

Long-term monarchical survival in the Middle East: a configurational comparison, 1945–2012

The survival of eight monarchies during the “Arab Uprisings” has put centre stage the fundamental question about the durability of this subtype of authoritarian regime. Seen from a broader historical perspective, however, the idea that monarchies have an inherent advantage in retaining power is less evident: a number of authoritarian monarchies broke down and subsequently became republics (Egypt 1952, Iraq 1958, North Yemen 1962, Libya 1969, Iran 1979), while others survived (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). To account for these divergent long-term pathways we systematically compare the 13 current and former Middle East monarchies. Using a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we concentrate on five central explanatory factors derived from previous research – namely, external support, rent revenues, family participation, the monarch's claim to legitimate rule, and hard repression. Our findings highlight the existence of three broad pathways to monarchical survival – linchpin monarchies, like Jordan and Morocco, versus the dynastic Gulf monarchies – and also reveal a possible hybrid third pathway, one which shares linchpin characteristics, but relates to cases on the Arabian Peninsula (Oman and the historical Imamate in North Yemen).     

Sharīʻa,Islamism and Arab support for democracy

ABSTRACT

The Arab Spring and its aftermath reignited the debate over the relationship between Islamism and democracy. This analysis improves upon previous research by demonstrating the crucial contribution which a more precise understanding of the multiple meanings of the concept of Sharī?a can have on our assessment of the future of democracy in the Arab world. While support for the Sharī?a-conformity of laws has a positive impact on the preference for democracy, the insistence that Sharī?a represents the word of God as opposed to the human attempt to interpret it reduces support for democracy. These findings are of considerable significance for academics and policy-makers interested in the future of democracy in the Arab world as it suggests that generic expressions of support for Sharī?a are less relevant in explaining support for democracy than what Arab women and men consider to be its essence.     

Neither episodic,nor destined to failure? The endurance of Hungarian populism after 2010

The Palestinian Authority's (PA) claim to embody the spirit of the “Arab Spring”, through its recent “state-building” agenda – including its elevation to “non-member observer status” at the United Nations – is disingenuous. This conclusion rests on three key arguments outlined in this article. First, this article identifies a continuation of broader patterns of authoritarianism represented by the PA's lack of adherence to democratic practices, the deprivation of access for the Palestinian population to basic resources and the wider issue of the continued absence of Palestinian sovereignty. Second, it identifies the intensification of some authoritarian practices within Palestine, particularly in the areas of security and policing, for example by the use of force against protestors. Finally, this article identifies that civil-society groups and opposition supporters throughout 2011–2012 have more genuinely embodied evidence of resistance to authoritarianism in popular demonstrations against the PA.     

Risk and protective factors of delinquency that are sensitive to migration and culture

ABSTRACT

Present evidence regarding widely used risk assessment tools suggests that such tools may have inferior predictive validity for offenders with a migration background (MB), especially from Turkey and Arab countries. Based on a thorough literature review, we investigated additional risk and protective factors via a postdictive correlational study design. We assumed that delinquency is induced by discrimination, a conflict of values, norms of honour, a disapproval of sexual self-determination, and antisemitism. In contrast, we expected social support to diminish the risk of criminal behaviour. The sampling took place inside and outside prison, where adult men with an Arab or Turkish MB (n?=?140) filled out a questionnaire. Individual norms of honour (r?=?.27?.41), antisemitism (r?=?.31?.37), and a disapproval of sexual self-determination (r?=?.23?.26) were positively correlated with delinquency. The best predictor was the individual’s perception of friends’ norms of honour (r?=?.34?.56). However, only a few significant correlations were found for a perception of individual discrimination (r?=?.08?.14) and an internal conflict of values (r?=?.11?.15), whereas global discrimination (r?=?.20?.29) clearly emerged as a risk factor for delinquency. Social support by nondelinquent peers could be confirmed as having a protective influence against delinquency (r=?.25?.27). Theoretical and practical implications for risk assessment are discussed.     

Joel Gregory Prize/Prix Joël Gregory 1989

In Sudan the pastoral groups of nomad origin constitute an important component of that society. Nevertheless, these groups have been the object of a constant “invisibalisation” (symbolic and material) and of a “setting of otherness” contrasting them with other social categories in the country. This article offers a reflection on the contribution of a “pastoral perspective” as a critique of the reductionist trends of a complex of dichotomisation of the categories to consider the two Sudans and their populations. In expanding on the view of several timely ethnographies on the work of various researchers on Sudanese shepherds, as well as on the official “treatment” of these groups in national censuses or development plans, the article proposes avenues for reconsidering Sudanese studies beyond a persistent categorisation of “nomad pastoralism”, which contributes to an accentuation of the differences between the social components at the heart of each of the Sudans as well as between the current two Sudans.