Candidate positioning in Britain

Policy positioning has received a great deal of attention from scholars of British politics. While numerous studies emphasize the positions taken by the Labour and Conservative parties, and how the positions of these parties have shaped citizens’ electoral behavior, few studies explore policy positioning at the candidate-level. We conduct the first quantitative study that examines the relative policy positions of British candidates during a general election. Building on findings from the study of American elections, we argue that two factors explain variation in candidate positioning in Britain: constituency-level electoral competition and a disparity in candidate quality. Using data from the 2001 British Representation Study, we find evidence that both factors are associated with a decrease in the policy contrast between candidates. Our findings suggest that, despite the differences in party control, similar factors affect candidate positioning in both Great Britain and the United States.     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.     

浅析政府在改善族群关系中的作用与角色——以北爱尔兰问题为例

族群关系的妥善处理几乎是所有多民族国家都面临的难题。北爱尔兰新教徒与天主教徒两大教派族群间的矛盾是造成北爱冲突的重要原因,而这与英国政府族群关系政策失当有很大关系。为解决北爱尔兰问题,英国政府通过改善族群间关系,促进了北爱社会内部的逐步和解,从而推动了北爱兰和平的实现。     

Does It Matter If the House of Lords isn't Reformed? Perspectives from a Symposium at Trinity Hall,Cambridge

In May 2011 the Coalition government published a draft bill for reform of the House of Lords, proposing an upper chamber composed of 80% elected and 20% appointed members serving for single 15‐year terms. These plans reflect aspects of the stated positions of the main political parties, votes in the House of Commons, and broader political and scholarly debates over the past decade. Nevertheless, there is significant opposition from across the political spectrum, and there is a significant possibility that the proposed reforms will not be enacted before the next general election. This article draws on the views of participants (including three current peers) in a Symposium at Trinity Hall, Cambridge to argue that the likely failure of the reforms may be less disastrous than many suppose. Especially since the 1999 reforms, the House of Lords is in many ways a more active and legitimate chamber than is commonly realised.     

The paths to citizenship: a critical examination of immigration policy in Britain since 2001

ABSTRACT

McGhee explores the Labour government's attempts to manage the challenges and protect against the ‘risks’ associated with a particular group of migrants to Britain: permanent immigrants. He examines how Gordon Brown conceives of his three-stage proposals for ‘earned’ British citizenship working with the wider managed migration strategy introduced by Tony Blair and Charles Clarke. At the same time, McGhee contextualizes the earned British citizenship proposals within the recent immigration policies and citizenship/integration strategies introduced by David Blunkett when Home Secretary. If the episodes of social disorder involving the second generation of settled immigrant communities in Oldham, Burnley and Bradford in the summer of 2001 were the events that triggered Blunkett's new integration/citizenship strategies, including the introduction of English classes and citizenship lessons for would-be citizens, then the 7/7 attacks by so-called ‘home-grown’ extremists were the events that influenced the emergence of what will be described here as the institutional racialization associated with Brown's recommendations. McGhee also explores the shift from Blunkett's model of civic assimilation, with its Cantle-esque emphasis on participation, to the Brown model of civic nationalism, with its post-7/7-fuelled emphasis on loyalty, shared values and responsibilities.     

The image of the Jews in Hungarian public opinion

ABSTRACT

Nowhere has the debate about a ‘new antisemitism’ been as fierce and relevant as in France. In recent years this country has witnessed high recorded levels of antisemitism, prompting many commentators to claim the existence of an anti-sémitisme nouveau. Something has indeed changed, at least in terms of the nature, frequency and perpetrators of antisemitic violence in France. Previously connected exclusively to the extreme right, it has now also become associated with a group that is itself a victim of discrimination: ethnic minority youths living in the poor suburbs (banlieues). Peace first discusses and explains the statistics produced by the French watchdog on racism and antisemitism as well as the effects of the Middle East conflict. He then traces the debate on this ‘new antisemitism’ in the French context, contrasting the views of the label's promoters and opponents. He argues that, while antisemitism has undoubtedly evolved, the ‘new’ label is effectively erroneous as it fuses supposedly leftist and ‘Muslim’ antisemitism into one entity when they are not necessarily linked. In addition, he offers vital clarification of the distinction between anti-Zionism and antisemitism along with suggestions for further research.     

The Economic Consequences of a Hung Parliament: Lessons from February 1974

The British general election on 10 May 2010 delivered Britain's first hung Parliament since February 1974, and in the run‐up, the Conservative party made much of the economic difficulties Britain faced in the second half of the 1970s in order to try and convince voters that anything other than a Tory vote would risk exposing the nation to the discipline of financial markets. The question of how well equipped an exceptional kind of British government is to deal with exceptional economic circumstances is therefore of paramount importance. This paper argues that the Conservative party made too much of the impact of the 1974 hung Parliament in precipitating subsequent economic crisis and suggests that as such, there is no reason to assume that the Conservative–Liberal coalition government is ill‐equipped to manage British economic affairs in difficult circumstances.     

英国警察的招募条件及招募程序研究

英国的英格兰和威尔士、苏格兰、北爱尔兰的警察制度不完全相同,在警察招募条件上均存在普通警官和文职人员甚至特别警察人员的区别。虽然英国地方警察局局长直接负责包括征募警员、训练、负责警监及警监以下警衔的警察晋升、警纪、警察力量的布置和行动,但由国家统一制定的"国家招募模式"基本上获得了大多数警察局的首肯,特别是英格兰和威尔士所有警察局。     

英国"非殖民化"进程是战后殖民体系瓦解的历史必然

1958-1968年英国“非殖民化”经历了从回归、重建到收缩再到无奈的撤离、回归欧洲的曲折过程。英国力量的衰落和殖民地国家的独立解放斗争、以联合国为代表的国际社会对于殖民主义的压力、两极对立的国际形势对于英国殖民体系的战略冲击以及科技革命的影响等是这一过程产生的主要原因。它的性质是英国在国力衰落之下对殖民地所做的一次调整,是在当时的历史条件下为了挽救垂死的大英殖民帝国所做的挣扎。     

Pan-European thought in British fascism: the International Third Position and the Alliance for Peace and Freedom

Shaffer’s article explores pan-Europeanism in post-war British fascism by examining the International Third Position (ITP) and the Alliance for Peace and Freedom (APF). More marginal than the National Front and the British National Party, these groups never sought electoral influence or attracted a noteworthy membership. However, the ITP and the APF served as an important expression of extremist thought after the National Front and British National Party suffered from declining support. Both notably involved Nick Griffin and Roberto Fiore—who played significant roles in post-war fascism—although their involvement has not been explored in detail. By examining their activities, Shaffer argues that the pan-Europeanism of the ITP and the APF represented an evolution of British fascism that focused on foreign audiences and non-electoral goals. Despite containing elements of pan-Europeanist thought that existed in the NF and the BNP, they sought a purer and more exclusive objective with a strictly international focus.