Incumbency advantage and candidate characteristics in open-list proportional representation systems: Evidence from Indonesia

We use evidence from Indonesia's April 2014 legislative elections to study the relationship between incumbency, list position, candidate characteristics, and electoral success in open-list PR systems. Contrary to a recent literature identifying an incumbency disadvantage in other large developing democracies, we identify a consistent personal incumbency advantage in Indonesia. However, we argue that this advantage is mediated by party choices over how incumbents and newcomers are ranked on party lists, a key heuristic for voters in low-information electoral environments such as Indonesia.     

Polarization,candidate positioning,and political participation in the U.S.

Although there is clear evidence of growing ideological divides between the Democratic and Republican Parties, there is a lack of consensus about how this polarization impacts political participation. Using data from the 2010–2018 election cycles, we test how candidates’ distances from each other and distances from constituents are related to both voting and non-voting behavior. We fail to find evidence that the distance between candidates in and of itself depresses activity. Distance from a copartisan candidate can lower the likelihood of participation, but this is often offset by the greater likelihood of participation that comes with increased distance from an outparty candidate. Together, these results suggest that rather than demobilizing potential voters, polarization is instead motivating individuals by clarifying which candidate they do not want. Such findings are consistent with evidence of significant levels of negative partisanship and offer further insight into how candidate positioning impacts the electorate.     

Candidate appearance in campaign advertisements

Many scholars have examined the nature of campaign advertising strategy across differing contexts in U.S. elections. Little attention has been devoted to exploring the incentives that candidates face to appear — or not — in their own advertisements. We argue that candidates should seek to distance themselves from potential backlash stemming from more negative messages by not appearing in negative ads. We also expect that candidates should be more likely to appear in advertisements aired during primary elections relative to general elections because candidates should use ads in this election stage to introduce themselves to voters. Furthermore, incumbents should be less likely to appear in ads than other candidates because their constituents should not need to be introduced to them. Data on candidate-sponsored television advertisements collected across four years for four different offices provides support for our expectations and suggests that candidates make strategic decisions about when to appear in advertisements.     

公众参与理念在美国土地规划票决中的实践及启示

美国的投票式分区管制将票决制度运用于土地规划,是一种最强程度的公众参与。实践表明,土地规划领域有适用票决制度的必要,票决制度体现的公众参与特征包括决策者与参与者之间的双向沟通关系,决策结果对公众参与具有高度的依赖性。在信息公开制度健全、议题限制、平等保护审查等条件下,居民投票不会沦为"愚众政治",与专业机构判断的对立也会缓解,而且也不会"压迫少数人的意见"。我国应在涉及健康、生命安全的公共项目选址决策中引入票决制度,并同时完善信息公开配套机制,以及加强对居民投票决策不违反公益要求的程序管控。     

越战后美国对印支难民的安置与其地区分布分析

在印支3国(越南、柬埔寨、老挝)1975年后出现的难民潮中,有大批人移居美国。美国出于现实利益需要和人道主义原则而接纳了他们。最初的难民在经过收容中心后,被安置到全国不同的居留地。他们跟着又与后来的难民分别通过家庭团聚、政府的"疏散政策"以及重择高福利居留地等方式,先后进行"二度移民",从而形成了印支难民在美国地区分布的基本格局。这一分布是高度不平衡的,高集中性的。     

Electoral registration and the control of votes: The case of Chile

We investigate how the employment relationship may lead employers to control the voting behavior and to induce the electoral registration of their workers. Forced registration and the control of votes become feasible when voting behavior is observable, as in open ballot elections. Workers whose vote is controlled are more likely to be registered as compared to other eligible voters, increasing their impact on electoral outcomes. Increasing the secrecy of the vote (for instance with the adoption of a secret ballot) significantly reduces the control of votes. Electoral registration, however, remains biased as long as the probability of voting behavior disclosure induces less ideologically motivated voters to comply with the political preference of the employer. We provide empirical support for the predictions of the model examining the effects of the introduction of the secret ballot in Chile in 1958.     

On a Sociology of the Media

This article presents a detailed examination of the mass media's influence on candidate visibility and candidate awareness in House elections, using media markets as the vehicle for analysis. Simple comparisons reveal striking media market effects on both visibility and awareness: Voters are much more likely to report contact with the candidates in “media market districts"—House districts where there is a close fit between the local television market and the district's boundaries. Candidate recognition figures are also markedly higher in the media market setting. These findings indicate that the mass media have the potential to strongly influence competition in House races: Challengers are able to use the media advantages in media market districts to overcome the exposure gap associated with the incumbency advantage. Closer inspection reveals that these effects hold true even after controlling for other factors, most notably the spending activities of the candidates. These results suggest a substantial media influence on candidate awareness and thus on competition in House races.     

Do voters prefer educated candidates? How candidate education influences vote choice in congressional elections

Previous research shows that democracies are more likely to produce educated politicians, but is this because voters prefer educated representatives or because of other features of the democratic process? Education may serve as a signal of candidate quality to voters or it may simply be associated with other factors, such as access to campaign funds, that help candidates win elections. We address this puzzle by analyzing head-to-head matches between candidates in US House elections from 2002 to 2012 along with a conjoint experiment. We find evidence that candidates with higher levels of education win more votes than candidates with lower levels of education, even after we account for standard indicators of candidate quality and campaign spending. This education premium not only garners more votes, but it also translates into higher probabilities of winning. The experimental results and sensitivity analyses show that it is unlikely that these results are explained by a hidden confound. The experiment also illuminates that the education premium flows from perceptions of candidate qualification and ability to pursue respondent interests.     

The Influence of “Social Viewing” on Televised Debate Viewers’ Political Judgment

Social media could serve as an easy and fast window to the climate of public opinion. In the current study, we examined the influence of perceived opinion climate revealed via Twitter postings in shaping televised debate viewers’ candidate evaluation. We conducted two Web-based experiments in the high- and low-stimulus elections: (a) the 2012 Korean presidential election and (b) the 2014 Seoul mayoral election. Instead of using contrived stimulus materials, we were able to examine the influence of exposure to Twitter postings in voters’ judgment of candidate performance in real time. Using a custom-designed Web application, participants evaluated the candidates as debate-related Twitter postings were being fed in real time during each televised debate. Our results suggest that exposure to Twitter postings has induced significant bandwagon effects. Bandwagon effects were pervasive even among partisans and the knowledgeable. Our findings show that more policy efforts ought to be made to strengthen the informative role of social viewing.