Electoral effects of candidate valence

Ideological proximity is not the sole determinant of electoral choices. Voters frequently select candidates whose policy profiles do not exhibit the closest match with their own policy preferences. Instead, non-spatial factors can govern the vote. The empirical literature has struggled to assess the effect of candidate valence on electoral outcomes due to the challenge of estimating a comprehensive indicator of candidate valence. This paper investigates the effect of non-spatial factors on candidates’ electoral results by estimating candidate valences from a vote advice application. A conservative estimate based on an analysis of the two-tiered German federal election system suggests a surplus of several percentage points for high-valence candidates over low-valence competitors – even for competitors from minor parties.     

Moderate,extreme, or both? How voters respond to ideologically unpredictable candidates

Candidates and parties often face a choice between endorsing policies that appeal to their core constituencies or generate support from more diverse groups of voters. While the latter strategy may make overtures to a wider set of citizens, existing literature says little about how the overall mix of issue positions affects electoral support. We argue that candidates who endorse diverse sets of policy positions appear unpredictable to voters and incur subsequent electoral penalties. Using data from the 2006 congressional elections, we find that ideological predictability substantially increases electoral support at both the individual and aggregate levels and that voters perceive greater ideological congruence from more predictable candidates. Our results have important implications for candidate and party strategies and suggest that voters are responsive to the mean and the variance of candidates’ policy stances.     

论出狱人保护制度——概述日本和我国台湾的更生保护制度状况兼论我国大陆的相关制度

更生保护制度是刑事政策的一种,在我国台湾和日本是对刑满释放人员、或有不良行为的人,在社会上给予帮助,使之从新回归社会,不至再犯的一种制度。但是我国台湾与日本的具体制度又略有不同。根据更生保护制度的保护对象及保护方法,我国大陆地区与之相应的保护出狱人的制度是安置帮教制度。     

Crossing Party Lines: Volatility and Ticket Splitting in Mexico (1994–2000)

This article aims to amplify our portrait of the Mexican electorate by examining the ways in which Mexican electors distributed their votes among the parties during 1994–2000, both over successive elections (volatility) and in the same election (ballot splitting). Aggregate and survey data revealed that Mexicans engaged in these two forms of electoral behaviour frequently, indicators of an electorate in flux. Regression analysis indicated that, contrary to the expectation that the politically sophisticated differentiated their votes, virtually all parts of Mexican society were equally likely to switch parties and split tickets.     

当代西方政党政治的新趋势

政党模式的演变正在对西方国家现行的政党政治构成严峻的挑战.一些老牌政党要么改换门庭,要么被新兴的政党所取代.由于选票决定政党的命运,而选票又基本上掌握在选民手中,所以,在选举期间如何投选民之所好,在上台执政以后如何兑现承诺,满足选民的利益诉求,就成为政党的理念及其活动的首要内容.     

A technique for estimating candidate and voter locations

This paper develops a simple technique for locating voters and candidates in two-party US elections. Such a procedure is attractive because it overcomes the limitations of existing techniques that fail to place incumbents, challengers, and constituents on the same scale. The method is demonstrated using data from the 1988 presidential and congressional elections. The new data are then used to reevaluate spatial theories of candidate competition.     

新户籍制度改革背景下我国退伍安置改革的思考

2001年启动的一元户籍制度改革，给我国的退伍安置带来了解决原有的和现有的问题的机遇。作者在文中分析了退伍安置改革的背景，提出了建立一元退伍安置制度的改革主张，并且阐明了建立这一制度的行之有效的对策。     

Labeling candidates as underdogs in political communications: The moderation of candidate-related factors

Underdogs are individuals or groups who are at a disadvantage in competitive situations or predicted to fail in competition against rivals. In elections, candidates often label themselves as underdogs, regardless of their poll rankings, using the associated image of weakness to appeal to voters. This study examines the advertising effects related to labeling candidates as underdogs (versus frontrunners) in political communications, and the possible moderating effects of candidate-related factors, including media-based poll rankings, biological sex, and physical attractiveness. The results of two experiments show that a candidate's use of the underdog label generates better advertising effects when polls indicate the promoted candidate is close to or substantially behind the competitor, or when the promoted candidate is female and moderately physically attractive. However, using the frontrunner label generates better advertising effects when the promoted candidate is male, highly physically attractive, or substantially prevailing over the competitor in the polls.     

CHILD CUSTODY EVALUATION PRACTICES: A 20‐YEAR FOLLOW‐UP

This study surveyed 213 experienced child custody evaluators utilizing the same questionnaire in the Ackerman & Ackerman 1997 and Keilin & Bloom 1986 studies. Demographic information, evaluation practices, custody decision‐making, and recommendations were surveyed. Comparisons were made across all three studies to identify the similarities and differences in child custody evaluation practices over the past 20 years. This study added questions about risk management and ethical issues, and current practices in placement/access schedules. The reader is advised that not engaging in the practices performed by a majority of psychologists could result in a difficult testimony experience.     

论我国证券法定范围引发的问题及其解决方案

我国证券法没有证券定义并缺乏功能标准,法定列举了股票、公司债券及国务院认定的证券为其调整范围。证券法定范围的不足造成具有实质性功能的证券活动无法科学判定,企业难以借用股票和公司债券以外的权益证券融资,打击非法集资及非法证券活动的范围过于宽泛。借鉴引入美国证券法中的投资合同、证券私募和小额融资豁免制度,扩展我国的证券范围,赋予证券监管机构与法院证券认定裁量权,可解决我国证券定义不足造成的困境。