Polarization,candidate positioning,and political participation in the U.S.

Although there is clear evidence of growing ideological divides between the Democratic and Republican Parties, there is a lack of consensus about how this polarization impacts political participation. Using data from the 2010–2018 election cycles, we test how candidates’ distances from each other and distances from constituents are related to both voting and non-voting behavior. We fail to find evidence that the distance between candidates in and of itself depresses activity. Distance from a copartisan candidate can lower the likelihood of participation, but this is often offset by the greater likelihood of participation that comes with increased distance from an outparty candidate. Together, these results suggest that rather than demobilizing potential voters, polarization is instead motivating individuals by clarifying which candidate they do not want. Such findings are consistent with evidence of significant levels of negative partisanship and offer further insight into how candidate positioning impacts the electorate.     

Candidate appearance in campaign advertisements

Many scholars have examined the nature of campaign advertising strategy across differing contexts in U.S. elections. Little attention has been devoted to exploring the incentives that candidates face to appear — or not — in their own advertisements. We argue that candidates should seek to distance themselves from potential backlash stemming from more negative messages by not appearing in negative ads. We also expect that candidates should be more likely to appear in advertisements aired during primary elections relative to general elections because candidates should use ads in this election stage to introduce themselves to voters. Furthermore, incumbents should be less likely to appear in ads than other candidates because their constituents should not need to be introduced to them. Data on candidate-sponsored television advertisements collected across four years for four different offices provides support for our expectations and suggests that candidates make strategic decisions about when to appear in advertisements.     

On a Sociology of the Media

This article presents a detailed examination of the mass media's influence on candidate visibility and candidate awareness in House elections, using media markets as the vehicle for analysis. Simple comparisons reveal striking media market effects on both visibility and awareness: Voters are much more likely to report contact with the candidates in “media market districts"—House districts where there is a close fit between the local television market and the district's boundaries. Candidate recognition figures are also markedly higher in the media market setting. These findings indicate that the mass media have the potential to strongly influence competition in House races: Challengers are able to use the media advantages in media market districts to overcome the exposure gap associated with the incumbency advantage. Closer inspection reveals that these effects hold true even after controlling for other factors, most notably the spending activities of the candidates. These results suggest a substantial media influence on candidate awareness and thus on competition in House races.     

Do voters prefer educated candidates? How candidate education influences vote choice in congressional elections

Previous research shows that democracies are more likely to produce educated politicians, but is this because voters prefer educated representatives or because of other features of the democratic process? Education may serve as a signal of candidate quality to voters or it may simply be associated with other factors, such as access to campaign funds, that help candidates win elections. We address this puzzle by analyzing head-to-head matches between candidates in US House elections from 2002 to 2012 along with a conjoint experiment. We find evidence that candidates with higher levels of education win more votes than candidates with lower levels of education, even after we account for standard indicators of candidate quality and campaign spending. This education premium not only garners more votes, but it also translates into higher probabilities of winning. The experimental results and sensitivity analyses show that it is unlikely that these results are explained by a hidden confound. The experiment also illuminates that the education premium flows from perceptions of candidate qualification and ability to pursue respondent interests.     

The Influence of “Social Viewing” on Televised Debate Viewers’ Political Judgment

Social media could serve as an easy and fast window to the climate of public opinion. In the current study, we examined the influence of perceived opinion climate revealed via Twitter postings in shaping televised debate viewers’ candidate evaluation. We conducted two Web-based experiments in the high- and low-stimulus elections: (a) the 2012 Korean presidential election and (b) the 2014 Seoul mayoral election. Instead of using contrived stimulus materials, we were able to examine the influence of exposure to Twitter postings in voters’ judgment of candidate performance in real time. Using a custom-designed Web application, participants evaluated the candidates as debate-related Twitter postings were being fed in real time during each televised debate. Our results suggest that exposure to Twitter postings has induced significant bandwagon effects. Bandwagon effects were pervasive even among partisans and the knowledgeable. Our findings show that more policy efforts ought to be made to strengthen the informative role of social viewing.     

Electoral effects of candidate valence

Ideological proximity is not the sole determinant of electoral choices. Voters frequently select candidates whose policy profiles do not exhibit the closest match with their own policy preferences. Instead, non-spatial factors can govern the vote. The empirical literature has struggled to assess the effect of candidate valence on electoral outcomes due to the challenge of estimating a comprehensive indicator of candidate valence. This paper investigates the effect of non-spatial factors on candidates’ electoral results by estimating candidate valences from a vote advice application. A conservative estimate based on an analysis of the two-tiered German federal election system suggests a surplus of several percentage points for high-valence candidates over low-valence competitors – even for competitors from minor parties.     

Moderate,extreme, or both? How voters respond to ideologically unpredictable candidates

Candidates and parties often face a choice between endorsing policies that appeal to their core constituencies or generate support from more diverse groups of voters. While the latter strategy may make overtures to a wider set of citizens, existing literature says little about how the overall mix of issue positions affects electoral support. We argue that candidates who endorse diverse sets of policy positions appear unpredictable to voters and incur subsequent electoral penalties. Using data from the 2006 congressional elections, we find that ideological predictability substantially increases electoral support at both the individual and aggregate levels and that voters perceive greater ideological congruence from more predictable candidates. Our results have important implications for candidate and party strategies and suggest that voters are responsive to the mean and the variance of candidates’ policy stances.     

Gender and local executive office in regional Russia: the party of power as a vehicle for women’s empowerment?

We employ a political ambition framework to study women’s under-representation in Russian local politics. We conduct a survey of current heads of municipal districts and municipal urban and rural settlements in four regions of the Russian Federation. The study reveals gendered pathways to local leadership positions. The advantage of incumbency is fully used by male politicians: male incumbents are more likely than female incumbents to run for re-election. Self-initiated ambition, term in office, and age explain the decisions of male executives to run for re-election. Female incumbents are likely to run for a subsequent term only if they are supported by the United Russia Party.     

多边贸易体制中过渡期条款的内涵与法理基础探析

多边贸易体制中的过渡期条款是基于成员方参与规则建设能力的差异,在平等适用规则的前提下,成员方通过谈判,在特殊时间段内对成员权利义务实行差异化配置的规则类型。这类条款来源于多边贸易体制在发展进程中逐步体现出的包容性,在根本上来源于发达成员与发展中成员间的重大差异,也体现了发展中成员维护自身国家经济安全的迫切需求。基于功能主义视角,过渡期条款产生和存续的法理基础主要体现为,这类条款在维护国家经济主权、修正制度缺陷、呼应发展中成员的特殊与差别待遇以及促进多边贸易体制内的公平互利等方面具有重要作用。世界贸易组织成员鲜明的二元结构特征决定了过渡期条款在未来尚有继续存续的空间。     

从边疆暴力事件看公安机关的预警与应急机制

我国目前正处在社会转型时期,近些年来发生的一系列严重打砸抢烧暴力犯罪事件和西藏、新疆少数民族分裂主义分子、极端非法宗教和恐怖势力制造的系列暴力犯罪活动,都在提醒我们应该重视公安机关的预警和应急机制。这是稳定社会治安,关系民族、民生和保护来之不易的改革开放大好局面的大是大非问题。公安机关是国家的一支武装力量,是维护社会稳定的主力军。因此公安机关建立一套完备有效的预警应急机制,充分分析预测各种可能存在的不安全因素,采取相应措施予以控制,对处置这类暴力事件和维护社会稳定具有重要作用。这在很大程度上可以化解矛盾冲突,减少暴力犯罪事件给人民生活和社会带来的严重危害,维护国家法律秩序,维护各民族团结,保护人民群众的根本利益。