Commentary: Promising answers,and the next generation of questions

The papers in this special issue will be immensely valuable in taking forward the agenda of research, practice and theory construction in the field of offender rehabilitation. Some have consolidated existing knowledge in specific areas and analysed its potential implications. Others have identified the key points at issue in the debate between different models of the rehabilitation process. Still others have explored or developed a number of relatively neglected matters, including the delivery of treatment within a coercive framework; the role of labelling in change and desistance processes; the importance of the therapeutic alliance in offence-focused work; and reconceptualisation of the responsivity principle within the framework of therapeutic jurisprudence. The present paper extracts some further principal themes from the spectrum of issues raised. Discussion of these is grouped under the four headings of theory construction, evidence accumulation, practical implementation, and ethical and political dimensions.     

Use of Protection Motivation Theory to Assess Fear of Crime in Rural Areas

Fear of crime has long been the purview of sociology, with attitudes more extensively researched in higher risk urban populations. A sample of 184 rural participants from 36 states in the USA responded to a questionnaire on experiences of crime victimization, and attitudes toward crime, using the multidimensional Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) model. For the entire sample, perceived noxiousness of crime and personal risk corresponded to a recent history of victimization. Yet, victimization did not appear to alter perceptions of efficacy of proposed response or self efficacy in response to crime. When sorted by gender, women did express differences in perceptions of efficacy based on experience. The findings argue for fear of crime as a multidimensional construct, with implications for both research and applied programs.     

Application of operational psychology to assessment of inmates

Abstract

The newly developed actuarial risk instruments, Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, 2003a) and Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) (Thornton et al., 2003), were cross-validated and compared with Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) in a retrospective follow-up study of 304 forensic psychiatrically evaluated sexual offenders (mean time-at-risk=14.8 years). All instruments predicted any sexual, non-sexual violent and any violent recidivism moderately for child molesters [area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC)=0.67 (95% CI=0.57–0.77) to 0.76 (95% CI=0.68–0.85)] but poorly for rapists [AUCs=0.64 (95% CI=0.51–0.70) to 0.68 (95% CI=0.59–0.77)]. The instruments also predicted severe sexual recidivism moderately for child molesters [AUCs=0.74 (95% CI=0.63–0.86) to 0.79 (95% CI=0.70–0.89)] but were of no value in informing on this outcome for rapists [AUCs=0.58 (95% CI=0.47–0.68) to 0.63 (95% CI=0.53–0.73)]. AUC estimates were generally higher for Static-2002 and RM2000 than for Static-99, but no single instrument demonstrated statistical superiority. The study provides support for implementing actuarial instruments in applied risk assessments of child molesters.     

Factorial analysis of risk matrix 2000 on an Italian sample of sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

In order to assess the internal structure of Risk Matrix 2000 in an Italian sample of 308 adult males convicted for sex abuse, a principal component analysis with Promax rotation was performed. The results identified a structure with three factors that explained 53.8% of the total variance: the first factor concerned items referred to the criminal career of the offender; the second factor concerned the age of onset in committing crimes; the third factor was more strictly related to the offenders' attitude towards the sex crime/s, and reflects the aggravating items of the S scale. These results allows us to have the first validated tool on an Italian sample for assessing the level of risk for recidivism.     

The use of tactical polygraph with sex offenders

Abstract

Little is known about current re-entry practices, nor the extent to which they facilitate re-entry, reintegration and, ultimately, desistance from future offending. Göbbels, Ward and Willis recently developed the Integrative Theory of Desistance from Sex Offending (ITDSO), which comprehensively describes the individual desistance process in four phases. In the current research, the re-entry phase of the ITDSO was used as a theoretical framework to evaluate current re-entry practices in five North American sex offender treatment programmes. Inductive thematic analyses were conducted using interview data from programme directors and final client assignments. Eleven themes were identified. Findings are discussed in relation to their fit with the ITDSO and suggestions are made for improving re-entry practices so that they better promote desistance.     

A review of dynamic variables and their relationship to risk prediction in sex offenders

In recent years, a good deal of attention has been paid to the question of recidivism in sex offenders, with an emphasis on the pool of identified static variables associated with risk. The paper aims to review the developing evidence-base for dynamic (changeable) variables, describing their clinical and research characteristics. It also considers the relationship between dynamic domains and apparently fixed developmental variables, such as attachment and victimization experiences. Three main models are presented, and examined in terms of their ability to enhance static prediction models. Results would suggest that there are four dynamic domains, which can predict sexual recidivism independently of static risk prediction, and that these domains should be of central consideration in the continuing development of treatment programmes.     

Risk Governance of the Swedish Customs Service: Negotiating Security,Efficiency, and Poor Information

During the last decade, ‘risk management’ has become the common language through which different and sometimes contradictory expectations are brokered in the Swedish customs service. Security concerns, corporate interests and managerial reforms are all phrased—or re‐phrased—as considerations of risk. These considerations are then used to direct organizational strategy and resources. The crucial moment is the operationalization of risks, which are negotiated at the policy level, all the way down through the organization. I will argue that this has happened in the Swedish customs service during the last decade. The successive operationalizations of drugs, violation of intellectual property rights and organized crime have enabled a streamlining of the organization along the policy level risks. The resulting risk governance is mainly about managing the customs as an organization. Yet it also affects the customs' use of force by changing the way border crossers are singled out for control. The traditional, informal risk assessment at the border is being replaced—or supplemented—by formal risk profiles, constructed from the booking information provided by transportation companies. As a consequence, the control selection is increasingly based on a set of impersonal indicators such as mode of payment and possible rebooking.     

中国海外利益面临的主要风险及保护

海外利益,是指一国处于境外的国家利益。中国海外利益从内容上可分为海外经济利益、海外安全利益、海外政治利益和海外文化利益,它们功能互补,互为支撑,共同构成了中国海外利益丰富的内涵。影响海外利益安全最核心的因素是外部因素,即来自复杂国际体系包括国际环境儿及与所在国双边或与其他利益相关国多边关系的影响,包括国际环境类风险、政治类风险、安全类风险等。可通过建立国家层面的专门协调机制和专门机构,强化国际合作,建立健全海外利益保护法律体系等途径和手段,在国家层面综合运用政治、军事、经济、外交等各方面资源,保护中国海外利益。