中越边境地区动物疫情传入风险分析及防控对策

本文通过对广西中越边境动物疫情传入风险进行分析,研究探讨有效的防控应对措施。     

基于贝叶斯网络的性别失衡风险传导研究

性别结构失衡已成为当前中国重要的人口问题之一.作为一种社会风险,其影响正通过特定途径扩展到社会其他领域,引发包括社会安全在内的一系列社会问题.本文基于风险传导理论和性别失衡问题的相关研究成果,通过文献整理等方式构建出了一个性别失衡风险传导理论模型,并以该模型为框架,经过节点确定、结构学习和参数学习等步骤构建贝叶斯网络模型.进而以专家问卷调查数据为基础,从预测推理、诊断推理、影响强度分析和敏感性分析等四个方面对性别失衡风险传导问题进行了详细的探讨.     

Single-item predictive validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) for violent behaviour in outpatient forensic psychiatry

The single-item predictive validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) has not been thoroughly investigated, although this has great clinical relevance for the selection of treatment targets. Furthermore, it remains unclear whether the characteristic START additions of scoring strengths next to vulnerabilities and selecting key items, add incremental predictive validity. Finally, predictive validity has primarily been studied in inpatient settings and included mainly patients with a psychotic disorder. We analysed data from a mixed diagnostic sample of 195 forensic psychiatric outpatients with a 3-month and 170 patients with a 6-month follow-up period, using logistic regression analysis. The occurrence of violent or criminal behaviour was established based on the case manager’s recordings in the patient’s file. Only 5 of the 20 START items were found to have predictive validity: Impulse Control, Attitudes, Material Resources, Rule Adherence and Conduct. The last three were the only items for which incremental predictive validity was found with respect to scoring it as a strength and a vulnerability. Selection of key items did not add to the predictive validity. While possibly having therapeutic significance, the scoring of strength next to vulnerability and the selection of key items, may not be beneficial for risk assessment.     

Risk assessment of sexual offenders in German forensic institutions

BACKGROUND: The assessment of recidivism in sexual offenders is an urgent topic for forensic psychiatry in Germany. The call for useful predictive measures is therefore getting louder. AIMS: The present study analyses which criteria are employed by therapists in forensic hospitals to assess the dangerousness of sexual offenders. Of particular interest is whether the criteria listed in presently known prediction scores as decisive are actually used in decision-making in current forensic psychiatric practice. METHOD: Data are collected in a prospective prediction study funded by the German Research Association. RESULTS: The results reveal that therapists employ mainly clinical and less historical criteria, thus indicating substantial differences from currently known prediction scores and results of other studies. CONCLUSIONS: That therapists base their prediction of dangerousness primarily on clinical variables reveals a substantial error that has to be remedied. Further research on the extent of relevance of clinical variables is needed.     

风险的制度化与制度的风险——以彩票业为例

从风险与制度的关系角度,分析了彩票业在中国的发展过程以及存在的问题。认为,彩票是国家对社会投机行为进行有序管理的制度形式,实现了国家对风险的制度化利用,达到了通过赋予娱乐行为合法性,筹集社会资金发展公益事业的目的。彩票业的兴起是中国发展市场经济的必然结果,产生的问题反映了市场经济监管体制的不完善,也说明了任何制度建设都蕴藏着潜在风险。要解决彩票发行中产生的各类问题,必须从完善和强化监管机制入手,引导和激励社会公众参与合法的娱乐活动。     

日本企业家经营风格的演进

随着减量经营时代的开始,在高速成长期所造就的日本企业家经营风格显得日益僵化,不得不进行调整.面对经济全球化和信息化的发展,日本企业家的经营风格也日趋国际化、一般化,很多已丧失了原有的"日本特色".     

Culture, Autonomy and Djulibinyamurr: Individual and Community in the Construction of Rights to Traditional Designs

The remoteness enquiry in negligence, which serves to exclude the liability of defendants for harmful consequences that their careless conduct caused, but for which it seems unfair to penalise them, has long been beset by uncertainty. Indeed, a common view is that this area of the law can be explained only by reference to diffuse considerations of 'legal policy'. This paper, however, argues that the remoteness enquiry represents a principled response to a problem that can arise, at a deep level, in ascribing a harmful outcome to the negligent exercise of individual agency. The relevant problem concerns the possible mismatch between the hypothetical 'risk-claim' in virtue of which conduct was faulty and the causal set that subsequently materialised for harm. The 'revised risk theory' that emerges from this analysis accounts for the majority of remoteness determinations. However, a few exceptions are also considered where 'policy', in a restricted sense, operates to extend or curtail a negligent agent's legal responsibility.     

公共安全视野下环境风险规制的改进

环境风险严重影响公共安全,进而破坏社会和国家的稳定与安全。理论上,基于公共安全考量的环境风险规制有明确的政策依据和可执行的法律环境;实务上,基于公共安全考量的环境风险规制由公安机关依法参与政策制定并保障其实施。当前,"重"事故应急而"轻"风险预防、"重"公安职能而"轻"开放合作、"重"实体规制而"轻"程序制约的现状,是公安机关防范和化解环境风险面临的难题。改进之策在于明确公安机关参与环境风险规制的范围和职责;完善公共安全视野下环境风险规制的制度供给;建立公安机关参与环境风险规制的专家咨询制度;加强公安机关应对环境风险能力的应急预案建设。     

社会风险与风险社会关系探析

社会风险、风险社会是两个不同的概念,它们之间虽有联系,但在时间的维度上、社会的内涵上,风险的内涵、范围、来源、预警及其后果等方面都存在很大的差别.正确把握两者的联系与区别,就不会误用这两个概念,更不会把它们混同为一个概念.