Inter-rater reliability of dynamic risk assessment with sexual offenders

Abstract

This paper describes the inter-rater reliability of the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need (SARN, formerly known as Structured Risk Assessment). The SARN is a structured framework for identifying sexual offenders’ dynamic risk factors. The SARN comprises 16 dynamic risk factors, categorized into four domains: Sexual Interests, Distorted Attitudes, Socio-Affective Functioning and Self-Management. Two studies, utilizing three samples, are reported. Study 1 examined the inter-rater reliability of four SARN cases with a sample of seven expert raters. Results indicated high inter-rater reliability amongst these participants. Study 2 examined the reliability of SARN with two samples who had received training before supplying inter-rater data (N=88). Results provided some support for the reliability of SARN. However, strength of reliability was dependent upon the method of analysis applied (percentage agreement, Cohen's Kappa, intra-class correlation coefficients). These results are discussed in terms of their clinical and methodological implications.     

Risk and protective factors of delinquency that are sensitive to migration and culture

ABSTRACT

Present evidence regarding widely used risk assessment tools suggests that such tools may have inferior predictive validity for offenders with a migration background (MB), especially from Turkey and Arab countries. Based on a thorough literature review, we investigated additional risk and protective factors via a postdictive correlational study design. We assumed that delinquency is induced by discrimination, a conflict of values, norms of honour, a disapproval of sexual self-determination, and antisemitism. In contrast, we expected social support to diminish the risk of criminal behaviour. The sampling took place inside and outside prison, where adult men with an Arab or Turkish MB (n?=?140) filled out a questionnaire. Individual norms of honour (r?=?.27?.41), antisemitism (r?=?.31?.37), and a disapproval of sexual self-determination (r?=?.23?.26) were positively correlated with delinquency. The best predictor was the individual’s perception of friends’ norms of honour (r?=?.34?.56). However, only a few significant correlations were found for a perception of individual discrimination (r?=?.08?.14) and an internal conflict of values (r?=?.11?.15), whereas global discrimination (r?=?.20?.29) clearly emerged as a risk factor for delinquency. Social support by nondelinquent peers could be confirmed as having a protective influence against delinquency (r=?.25?.27). Theoretical and practical implications for risk assessment are discussed.     

Using a cognitive analytic approach to formulate a complex sexual and violent offender to inform multi-agency working: developing a shared understanding

Abstract

Cognitive Analytic Therapy (CAT) is a collaborative time-limited psychotherapy developed by Ryle. The approach aims to formulate how early experiences influence the development of unhelpful patterns that maintain a person's current difficult experiences. Within the UK, forensic services personnel are increasing their uses of CAT approaches within contextual, i.e. treatment teams, settings. Offending behaviour is relational (perpetrator to victim), and CAT is a relational model. Within the context of National Health Service consultation service (Serious Offender Liaison Service) working with the Police and Criminal Justice Social Work to assess, formulate and give advice regarding working with serious sexual and violent offenders, often with personality disorders, a case example is presented. The paper suggests that utilising a relational model, such as CAT, and applying one of the main the tools of this approach, through diagrammatic representations (maps) of the formulation, can enable agencies working with an individual to share a common formulation and language.     

Social Constructionism and Criminology: Traditions,Problems and Possibilities

Over the last twenty years, the prison system, border controls, crime prevention programmes, anti‐terror measures and private security companies have expanded within Europe. This article discusses some of the implications. It will be argued that we are witnessing a paradigmatic shift in the manner in which state‐sanctioned force is employed. The distinction between what is criminal, to be dealt with by the justice system, and what creates a ‘perception of security’—formerly to be dealt with by social policy—is being eroded at both macro‐ (‘war on terror’) and micro‐ (‘public order’) levels. The rule of law is giving way to a security mentality, where force is employed on the basis of risk assessments. Social problems are re‐interpreted as security threats, and met with measures recreating the original threats. This gives the policy field a distinctive rationality of its own.     

‘Catching’ and ‘Targeting’: Risk‐Based Policing,Local Culture and Gendered Practices

The aim of this article is to explore cultural and practical aspects of the growing use of information and communication technology (ICT) in policing. By using empirical research on policing in Norway, the focus will be on how ICT is used as a crime prevention instrument in everyday police work and culture. The transition, which the new technologies mediate, will be explored by focusing on concepts of risk and materialization of risk‐based policing at the practice level in two cases: 1) a special unit fighting serious and organized crime utilizing proactive policing methods, police informers, crime profiling and databases, and 2) a police station focusing on low‐level crime by using a problem‐oriented policing model, transmitting responsibility for personal security onto identified ‘problem‐owners’.1 ‘Problem‐owner’ is a notion used by the police in the two cases. It is referring to the POP‐model, and whom they identify as important to participate in the risk‐management. According to Wright (: 121): “Partnership refers to a purposeful relationship between the police and the public or between the police and other agencies in the field.” Based on an examination of risk phenomena as contextual, embedded in practice and cultural settings, various stories about risk management will be told. The stories reflect different control strategies in the crime control discourses, and point to how risk‐based technologies are shaped and adapted in occupational culture and practice. The article illuminates the importance of studying the empirical complexity ICT is used in, and looks towards, to paraphrase O'Malley and Palmer (), ‘firewalls of resistance’ in the local occupational culture, that are preventing full integration of risk tools.     

Uncertain subjects: risks,liberalism and contract

Uncertainty has been largely overlooked in the governmentality literature dealing with risk, especially because of contemporary emphases on models of statistical or actuarial risk calculation. Yet it represents a distinctive way of governing through the future, whose place in the formation of rationalities of neo-liberalism, and of 'enterprising subjects', is vital. Indeed, in domains of enterprising activity, the governmental modality of uncertainty marginalizes or subordinates statistical and expert models of risk management. In part this is because of enterprise's 'inventive' orientation - which sits ill with risk's assumption of a future that reproduces the past. Not only is uncertainty central to techniques of neo-liberal government, it has a genealogy that is distinguishable from the genealogy of more rationally calculative modalities of liberal government - but also reaching back to the beginnings of liberalism. In the development of contract law, blueprints for government through uncertainty provide a foundational element in the constitution of liberal subjects, and for the 'reasonable' techniques of government through the future which are a hallmark of liberalism. It is concluded that the place of uncertainty is central to liberalism and thus unlikely to be marginalized by 'risk society' developments.     

Long-Term Capital Management and the sociology of arbitrage

Arbitrage is a key process in the practice of financial markets and in their theoretical depiction: it allows markets to be posited as efficient without all investors being assumed to be rational. This article explores the sociology of arbitrage by means of an examination of the arbitrageurs, Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). LTCM's 1998 crisis is analysed using both qualitative, interview-based data and quantitative examination of price movements. It is suggested that the roots of the crisis lay in an unstable pattern of imitation that had developed in the markets within which LTCM operated. As the resulting 'superportfolio' began to unravel, arbitrageurs other than LTCM fled the market, even as arbitrage opportunities became more attractive, causing huge price movements against LTCM. Three features of the sociology of arbitrage are discussed: its conduct by people often personally known to each other; the possibility and consequences of imitation; and the limits on the capacity of arbitrage to close price discrepancies. It is suggested that by 1998 imitative arbitrage formed a 'global microstructure' in the sense of Knorr Cetina and Bruegger.     

Electoral Risk and Redistributive Politics in Mexico and the United States

What strategy does a rational party follow in allocating discretionary expenditure? This article conceives redistributive politics as an investment strategy where expenditure allocations respond to electoral risk. To show the effects of risk, it provides evidence from Pronasol in Mexico and an analysis of New Deal spending in the United States. The analysis finds that the federal administrations in both countries responded to systematic electoral risk. Spending diversification into risky voters was a rational response to chances of losing elections. The analysis hence connects electoral volatility with redistributive spending.     

A difficulty with oaths: On trust, trustworthiness, and signalling

In the wake of the Enron and Worldcom financial scandals that rocked Wall Street in 2002, the US government’s financial regulatory body, the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) took the unprecedented step in June 2002 of requiring that the chief executives and chief financial officers of America’s 947 biggest companies to swear on oath that their company results and financial reports were to the best of their knowledge accurate. The one-off order was quickly followed by the passing of the Sarbanes-Oxely act, which will require many more CEOs and CFOs to certify their company reports and financial statements at regular intervals. In this paper we apply a simple signalling model to examine whether or not this type of institutional signal of trustworthiness is always efficient. We find that in the presence of signalling costs, the separating equilibrium can be socially inefficient as well as causing a general loss of trust. JEL classificationC72. D81. D82. K22     

论信用证诈骗犯罪构成和风险防范

本文阐述了信用证交易特点、信用证诈骗犯罪的基本构成的具体表现以及在实践中如何防范信用证诈骗带来的风险,尽可能减少由此带来的损失。