Children and Young People who have Sexually Harmful Behaviours: From Fixed to Transformative Risk Assessment

Risk, risk assessment and risk management have become central to contemporary policies and practices in criminal justice, with consequences for those who apply and receive such approaches. It has been argued that risk has been the key organising principle of contemporary correctional practice and offender management, and that actuarial risk in particular has taken on a hegemonic dominance that supersedes other models of governance, such as welfare and disciplinary forms of regulation. This article focuses on the construction and deployment of two assessment frameworks for young people with sexually harmful behaviour to illustrate the epistemological differences between a clinical/actuarial guided approach and that of constructing safety. It identifies current theorising about risk/technologies as being within a neo-liberal political and governance agenda and the opportunities for moving from a fixed to a transformative risk subject.

Design and Crime: Proofing Electronic Products and Services against Theft

This paper introduces the work of Project Marc (an EU-funded project to develop mechanisms for assessing the risk of crime) and discusses both difficulties encountered throughout the project and progress made since the project ended. The authors introduce the papers contained within this special edition and summarise their relevance to crime-proofing. The paper discusses progress made within this field in the decade prior to Project Marc and makes recommendations to ensure that the ideas move forward.

Utility of the Revised Level of Service Inventory (LSI-R) in Predicting Recidivism After Long-Term Incarceration

Assessing an inmate’s risk for recidivism may become more challenging as the length of incarceration increases. Although the population of Long-Term Inmates (LTIs) is burgeoning, no risk assessment tools have been specifically validated for this group. Based on a sample of 1,144 inmates released in a state without parole, we examine the utility of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) in assessing risk of general and violent felony recidivism for LTIs (n = 555). Results indicate that (a) the LSI-R moderately predicts general, but not necessarily violent, recidivism, and (b) this predictive utility is not moderated by LTI status, and is based in part on ostensibly dynamic risk factors. Implications for informing parole decision-making and risk management for LTIs are discussed.

Predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) during residential treatment

This prospective study examines the predictive validity of the Dutch version of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) by examining relationships between SAVRY scores and various types of disruptive behavior during residential treatment. The SAVRY, a risk assessment instrument, was coded for 66 male adolescents on the basis of file information and interviews. The adolescents were referred to Rentray, a juvenile correctional and treatment facility, by the Dutch juvenile courts because of severe behavioral problems or serious offenses. Institutional infractions were retrieved from incident registration files, which included acts of physical violence, verbal threat, verbal abuse, and violation of institutional rules. The interrater reliability of the SAVRY scores was good. The predictive validity of the SAVRY for physical violence against persons was excellent (Risk Total: AUC=.80, r =.33; Summery Risk Rating: AUC =.86, r =.48). The SAVRY also had good predictive validity for violence against objects, verbal threats and violations of rules, but not for verbal abuse. Implications for assessment and management of violent behavior among adolescents in residential treatment are discussed.     

论大型群众性活动公共安全的风险评估

举办大型群众性活动有利于促进经济发展和精神文明建设,但短时间内人员的高度集中和流动也容易引起交通堵塞、拥挤、踩踏以及遭受恐怖袭击等方面的公共安全风险。为此,应当通过规范评估主体、标准、程序以及完善相关法律制度等途径完善我国大型群众性活动公共安全风险评估工作。     

Using typologies of victimization worry to create strategies for reducing fear of crime

The purpose of this paper is to develop actionable strategies designed for law enforcement agencies seeking to reduce fear of crime among those living within their jurisdictions. A conjunctive analysis of case configurations is conducted on data collected from residents living in southeast Queensland (Australia) (N = 713) in order to identify context-specific typologies of victimization worry. Main effects for each component of the typologies are examined in order to identify the impact each has on reducing negative attitudes towards crime. Current findings suggest that agencies will likely reduce fear of crime among community residents the most by focusing on decreasing concerns related to the consequences of victimization. Results are consistent for both crimes against persons and property offenses.     

Decision-Making About Volitional Impairment in Sexually Violent Predators

The Kansas v. Hendricks (1997) decision, in which the Supreme Court authorized post-sentence civil commitment for certain sex offenders, appeared to be constitutionally legitimized by limiting the class of offenders eligible for this special form of civil commitment to those who are "unable to control" their dangerousness. Nowhere in the available record, however, did the Court elucidate what they meant by this notion of volitional impairment. This study sought to examine factors that legal professionals (n=43), psychologists (n=40), and mock jurors (n=76) deem most relevant to a determination of sex offender volitional impairment. Participants, who were randomly assigned to a sexual predator commitment or an insanity hearing context, read a series of 16 vignettes that described a pedophilic offender and included combinations of variables hypothesized to be related to judgments of volitional impairment. Results suggested that participants, who as a group made remarkably high estimates of likelihood of future sexual violence, considered verbalization of control, history of sexual violence, and the context of the hearing as highly relevant to determinations of volitional impairment. Implications for policy and practice are explored.     

我国社会风险的成因与对策

中国社会内部蕴藏着巨大风险,严重影响我国社会安全运行和健康发展。社会风险有广义与狭义之分,狭义的社会风险是我国面临的主要风险。当前我国社会风险存在,主要是因为社会不公现象极为突出,社会成员受到利益损失并且得不到赔偿,引起社会成员的强烈不满并引发其反叛社会的行为。社会风险既是社会不和谐的表现,又是社会不和谐的原因所在,党中央提出构建社会主义和谐社会,抓住了防范和化解社会风险的关键,只有构建社会主义和谐社会才能有效防范社会风险。     

商业银行操作风险管理初探

商业银行存在诸多操作风险。借鉴国际商业银行的经验,我国商业银行应从操作风险管理文化、操作风险架构体系建设、操作风险管理技术、风险控制体系、风险责任追究制等方面入手,加强操作风险管理。