Risky business: Covering slow‐onset hazards as rapidly developing news

The emerging field of risk communication has yet to thoroughly grapple with how the mass media report risk. Through a content analysis of five newspapers noted for their science reporting, newspaper coverage of four environmental hazards is compared to media coverage of more traditional risky events. In general, these slow‐to‐develop stories are reported in much the same way as more traditional disaster stories. News accounts emphasized an event orientation, framed risks in terms of human activity rather than social and political contexts, described risk in terms of harms and benefits, and relied on traditional sources. The authors then explore how this version of mass‐mediated risk might change current definitions of risk communication and how a mediated construction of risk may influence public perception of the political choices these issues raise.     

Catastrophe risk

This paper examines the recent emergence of initiatives involving the reinsurance industry and the capital markets to develop mechanisms to finance the losses arising from catastrophic events. These initiatives are discussed from two perspectives. One perspective explores these financing mechanisms from the contention that catastrophic events are becoming increasingly non-insurable within contemporary risk society. In this regard the paper addresses issues relating to the coherence and sustainability of the risk networks underpinning efforts to maintain the insurability of catastrophic events. These catastrophe-financing initiatives are also discussed from a second, although related perspective. This refers to the very emergence of these different financing mechanisms. In this regard the moving potential of liberal government or the inventive mechanics driving the development of different ways to manage catastrophic risk become significant. The paper argues that the emergence of these different catastrophe-financing mechanisms is occurring at the intersection of concerns over the non-insurability of the catastrophic and the extremes of capitalist ingenuity, suggesting both perspectives might offer insights into some of the possible future trajectories of risk society.     

The moral hazards of neo-liberalism: lessons from the private insurance industry

The key tenets of neo-liberalism regarding risk, governance, and responsibility are critically evaluated through an empirical study of the private insurance industry. Recent tendencies in this industry towards increasing segmentation of consumers regarding risk, and towards an expansion of private policing of insurance fraud, are analysed. The definition of moral hazard is broadened to include all parties in the insurance relationship, not just the insured. Moral hazards embedded in the social organization of private insurance lead to various kinds of immoral risky behaviour by insureds, insurance companies, and their employees, and to intensified efforts to regulate this behaviour. The analysis concludes with some critical observations about the neo-liberal emphasis on minimal state, market fundamentalism, risk-taking, individual responsibility, and acceptance of inequality.     

Risk,Reflexivity and Sub-politics: Environmental Politics in Hong Kong

Increasing attention has been drawn to the risk posed by air pollution, a risk that has wide-ranging effects (on the environment, health, the economy, culture, urban design and politics). New environmental movements and political agendas have emerged in the past 10 years. A growing number of social groups have been formed to express their concerns and challenge established laws and rules. This paper will borrow Ulrich Beck's concepts of risk, reflexivity and sub-politics to analyse the new social movement that addresses air quality in Hong Kong. While previous environmental problems were considered manageable, air pollution is a risk that seems to defy solution. As a result of the institutional failure to deal with this risk, there has been a new alignment of interests and the emergence of a new form of politics—a sub-politics that leads to a sharing of power between established and informal politics, and the government and society. Although established political institutions have been receptive, altering the rules and increasing public participation, the extent of sub-politicization is still limited. This is due, in part, to the overall absence of reflexive self-regulation among individuals in the society, which might lead to a state of ‘disorganized irresponsibility’.     

Competence Trust,Reflexivity and Risk Management in Hong Kong

Abstract

Trust is an essential element of governance. Lack of trust in government engenders doubts regarding its competence, weakens its legitimacy, and creates difficulties in the process of governing. As suggested, declining trust was related to reflexivity. This article, based on a Hong Kong study, confirms that a lack of competence trust in the government's ability to manage work-related risks correlated with reflexivity. Self-identified social status also influences the degree of reflexivity and competence trust. The conventional approach to cultivating trust through managed social participation has been widely practiced, but the results have not led to an increase in competence trust in Hong Kong, even when the policy outcomes are positive. While recognizing that reflexivity and its impacts on trust are inevitable, this article argues that efforts should be made to develop critical trust through meaningful participation in the deliberative process.     

A Study of the Predictors of Persistence in Stalking Situations

Stalkers engaging in persistent campaigns of harassment have the potential to cause immense harm to their victims and themselves. Being able to estimate which stalkers are likely to persist longest is important to clinicians dealing with both perpetrators and victims. This study of 200 stalkers investigated characteristics of the stalkers and their behaviour that were associated with increased persistence. Logistic regression models were developed to predict low, moderate, and highly persistent stalking. The results supported previous research indicating that the type of prior relationship between stalker and victim is strongly associated with persistence, with prior acquaintances the most persistent, and strangers least. Being aged over 30, sending the victim unsolicited materials, and having an intimacy seeking or resentful motivation was also associated with greater persistence, as was the presence of psychosis.

Psychopathy and Stalking

We examined the association between psychopathy, assessed using the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised: Screening Version (Hart et al., Manual for the psychopathy checklist screening version (PCL:SV), 1995), and stalking in 61 men convicted of stalking-related offenses. Psychopathic symptoms were rare, but their presence—especially that of affective deficit symptoms—was associated with victimization of casual acquaintances and with several risk factors from the Guidelines for Stalking Assessment and Management (SAM) (Kropp et al., Guidelines for stalking assessment and management, 2008a), including stalking in violation of supervision orders, degree of preoccupation with victims, and targeting of victims with limited access to external resources. The findings suggest that in spite of their rarity, psychopathic traits may be important in the assessment and management of stalking risk.

物流金融中商业银行的风险及防范

物流金融业务作为一种较新的金融及物流创新服务产品,不仅解决了部分中小企业融资难问题,而且给商业银行带来了新的赢利增长点,为银行业的金融创新提供了条件。但是这种新兴的业务也会使商业银行面临质押物的风险、信托责任缺失风险、风险指标失灵风险、信用环境软约束风险和物流企业的管理体制风险。分析这些风险,并提出相应的规避和防范措施。     

Analyzing the Performance of Risk Assessment Instruments: A Response to Vrieze and Grove (2007)

In a recent article, Vrieze and Grove (Law Hum Behav, doi: 10.1007/s10979-007-9092-x , 2007) argue that, because of low recidivism base rates and limited predictive accuracy, an actuarial risk assessment instrument (ARAI) may produce decisions about sex offenders that are worse than simply predicting that no one will commit another sex offense. This article examines: (1) the construction and potential overfitting of ARAIs; (2) the meaning, value, and limitations of ROC areas; and (3) the relationship between the operating point that maximizes an ARAI's correct classifications and the legal criterion-"likely to reoffend"-used for sex offender designations. Contrary to what Vrieze and Grove suggest, ARAIs of modest accuracy yield probabilistic information that is more relevant to legal decision-making than just "betting the base rate."     

Criminal Recidivism Among Juvenile Offenders: Testing the Incremental and Predictive Validity of Three Measures of Psychopathic Features

We studied the predictive, comparative, and incremental validity of three measures of psychopathic features (Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version [PCL:YV]; Antisocial Process Screening Device [APSD]; Childhood Psychopathy Scale [CPS]) vis-à-vis criminal recidivism among 83 delinquent youth within a truly prospective design. Bivariate and multivariate analyses (Cox proportional hazard analyses) showed that of the three measures, the CPS was most consistently related to most types of recidivism in comparison to the other measures. However, incremental validity analyses demonstrated that all of the predictive effects for the measures of psychopathic features disappeared after conceptually relevant covariates (i.e., substance use, conduct disorder, young age, past property crime) were included in multivariate predictive models. Implications for the limits of these measures in applied juvenile justice assessment are discussed.