邓小平国际战略理念与中国和平崛起

邓小平的国际战略理念包括实事求是的思想路线、全新的国际关系价值标准、辩证的思维方式和极富时代意义的国际战略主题思想。这些带有指导思想价值和方法论意义的内容,以鲜明的时代性和科学性指导着改革开放的中国的对外工作。以胡锦涛为总书记的党和国家新一代领导人在新形势下提出的和平崛起的新思想,是对邓小平国际战略理念的继承和发展。     

美国霸权与中国崛起

在分析美国霸权与中国崛起的关系时,可以得出3点结论。首先,在相当长的时间内,中国崛起对美国的机制霸权、经济霸权、政治和意识形态霸权、军事霸权都不构成严重挑战;在美国构筑的全球霸权体系下,中国也还有相当大的崛起空间。其次,中国崛起对美国在亚太地区的霸权地位形成结构性的挑战。最后,从思维框架上说,我们既不能丢弃对国际权力格局的传统分析方法,以为信息和思想的沟通以及经济等领域的国际合作能够自然生成国家间的友好关系,消解国际冲突,也不能忽略国家及其以下的行为体的主观能动作用,以为权力格局的变化必然造成国际秩序的混乱。现在,中美领导人都认识到两国相互对抗的危害性,因此中美关系有望继续维持稳定,并逐渐建立起更为稳定的战略框架。     

试析中国和平崛起中的软权力因素

中国和平崛起符合我国的战略利益,它是我国综合国力全面提升的过程。其中,软权力既是推动我国和平崛起的重要因素,也是衡量和平崛起的重要指数。它是硬权力的重要补充,具有硬权力所不能及的特殊作用。在今天的时代背景下,我国要实现和平崛起离不开对软权力的培育和运用。     

中国崛起与全球安全治理转型

中国崛起与全球安全治理转型是21世纪初国际关系领域两个备受瞩目的全球性现象。文章以全球安全治理体系中的安全制度安排和安全规范设定为主要分析路径,以全球政治安全治理和全球经济安全治理为主要分析单元。一方面,自二战结束以来全球安全治理体系可分为"单边全球主义"和"全球单边主义"两个阶段,并且每一阶段的全球安全治理体系均可分解为政治制度、经济制度、政治规范和经济规范四个领域;另一方面,运用比较研究法,对各个时期全球安全治理体系在上述四个领域所体现出来的差异性进行剖析,可以发现,这种差异性集中表现为正在进行中的全球安全治理体系转型,崛起的中国在此次转型过程中开始发挥参与者、建设者和贡献者的作用。在传统全球安全治理体系陷入危机之时,中国崛起在相关领域所带来的制度效应和规范效应正在逐渐潜移默化地嵌入到全球安全治理体系中,中国的政策和实践也将相应日益形成规范化的趋势。     

从国际法视角看和平崛起

中国的和平崛起战略是在长时间地学习、适应国际法之后提出来的,具有充分的合法性。和平崛起符合国际法的基本原则,是对国际法的历史性突破,它势必推动国际法的创新,加快国际政治、经济新秩序的建立,对维护世界的和平与发展具有重大的意义。     

海权争霸与俄苏的兴衰及其历史反思

从海权的角度分析俄苏的兴衰是一个尚未有人进行充分探讨的问题。在数百年的争夺中 ,海权的扩张固然构成了俄苏崛起的一个因素 ,但从长远的角度看 ,对海权的过度追求又构成了俄苏走向衰落的根源之一。具体说来 ,从俄苏海权扩张西进、南下和东进 3条线路中 ,西进战略较为成功 ,并促进了俄苏的崛起 ;南下和东进战略虽有所收获 ,但都遭遇挫折 ,尤其是南下的世界扩张战略直接导致了苏联的衰落。从本质上来说 ,地缘政治条件的制约、俄苏海权过渡扩张所导致的一系列矛盾构成了俄苏海权战略失败并导致国力衰微的根源之一。     

ASEAN and evolving power relations in East Asia: strategies and constraints

This article seeks to examine constraints and challenges that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) states are confronted with in formulating and implementing their strategies in response to evolving regional environments represented by the rise of China. It argues that China's southern neighbours have adopted purposeful strategies in order to mitigate potentially negative effects from China's growing capabilities in East Asia. These strategies led to the expansion of membership in the East Asia Summit (EAS) and positive involvement in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, encouraging America's substantial commitments to the Asia-Pacific. However, ASEAN has failed to form the unified front on the EAS and TPP because its members have adopted diverse stances on and policies towards the two institutions. Moreover, an identity issue constitutes a crucial impediment to promoting cooperation between ASEAN members and the USA. While Washington has intensified diplomatic linkages with ASEAN, the US identity shown in its adherence to the results-oriented approach still provokes some concerns among the ASEAN members.     

The Rise of China: The Sustained Development of the World System or the End of It? *

It has been a controversial issue in the past thirty-odd years in academic circles at home and abroad whether China’s economic rise as a unique development model sustains and supplements the world system or brings an end to it. This article makes an analysis of the basic features of the three historical stages of the world system established 500 years ago from the perspective of the relationship between the world system and the rise and fall of countries. The analysis finds that the stages of mercantilism (1500-1750/1800), liberal economy (1800/1850-1914/1945) and mixed economy (1945-2030) were mainly based respectively on “geographical discovery” and “colonialism,” “industrial revolution” and “free trade,” and “economic globalization” and “system innovation.” For the above-mentioned reasons, “geographical discovery,” “international trade and finance,” “science and technology” and “international institutions and mechanisms” are the four fundamental driving forces that the world system has depended on for its existence for 500 years. The world system provided a context for the rise and fall of each individual country in the past 500 years, while the economic success China has achieved in the past three decades mainly benefits from its constant integration into this world system still in existence today. Therefore, the challenge to China in its future development will come, to a great extent, from the world system and its impact on China’s domestic politics, economy and social structure.     

软硬实力与中国对国际法的影响

晚近以来,中国作为一个大国迅猛崛起,然而,中国对国际法的影响仍然有限,与中国实力的快速增强很不相称。造成这种反常现象的主要原因,是中国软硬实力大小的失衡及发挥的受限。要扭转这种不利局面,绝非一日之功而能成就。虽然如此,在国际法律过程中,中国仍然可以根据软硬实力作用的机理,通过利益和观念两大维度尽量做出对自己有利的选择。     

Is China’s rise now stalling?

The variations on power transition theory so widely used to frame analysis of U.S.–China relation tend to assume the inevitability or at least strong probability of China surpassing the United States in economic power if not necessarily military power. In the terminology of social psychology’s attribution theory, China is imputed with the identity of a state that is inevitably rising. The Chinese Communist Party encourages this attribution among Chinese people and foreigners. But China’s economic rise – the foundation of its comprehensive rise – appears to have entered an inflection point in the mid-2010s and may now be stalling. In critical respects, China increasingly resembles the last two countries that ‘attempted’ a globe-level rise: the unsuccessful cases of postwar Japan and the Soviet Union. China’s labor force is shrinking; the country relies excessively on unsustainable debt increases to fuel economic growth; and pollution is seriously harming public health. But even if China’s rise conclusively stalls, it may take quite some time before the Chinese public and outside observers recognize the new reality because of intrinsic biases in the cognitive logic of attributing identities to actors.