Leader Incentives and Civil War Outcomes

This article examines the influence that rebel and state leaders have on civil war outcomes, arguing that incentives to avoid punishment influence their strategic decision making during war.  Leaders in civil war face punishment from two sources: internal audiences and opponents. I hypothesize that leaders who bear responsibility for involvement in the war have a higher expectation of punishment from both sources following unfavorable war performance, and thus, have incentives to continue the fight in the hope of turning the tide and avoiding the negative consequences of defeat. These incentives, in turn, make leaders who bear responsibility more likely to fight to an extreme outcome and less likely to make concessions to end the war.  These propositions are tested on an original data set identifying all rebel and state leaders in all civil conflict dyads ongoing between 1980 and 2011.  Results support the hypothesized relationships between leader responsibility and war outcomes.     

美国智库对华战略构想的新内涵——以《更长电报:走向新的美国对华战略》为例

拜登执政后美国对华战略如何调整备受瞩目,美国一些智库则积极"兜售"相关政策主张,其中大西洋理事会发布的《更长电报:走向新的美国对华战略》匿名报告受到广泛关注。该报告反映出美国智库对华战略构想中区别于传统冷战思维的新内涵,在战略认知上更新涉华判断,臆想当前中国战略"脆弱点",批判特朗普政府对华"政治惯性",主张从外部瓦解中国;在战略目标上力推拓展核心利益、重塑国际秩序,强调"共同威胁"以重振霸权体系,旨在护持冷战后美国霸权地位;在战略布局层面,提出振兴国家权势和加强对华威慑、明确与华竞争合作界限并煽动意识形态斗争,以全面遏制中国。该报告肆意抹黑中国,错误界定中国国家利益,对中国充满恶意偏见和误判,其战略布局根本无法撼动中国大战略根基。值得警惕的是,该报告的部分战略与政策构想在拜登政府近期政策实践中已有体现,暴露出美国政治精英与知识群体在涉华政策方面具有很大程度上的共同认知。在中美战略竞争常态化下,必须厘清两国关系的"常量"与"变量",做好应对各种风险和挑战的准备,尤其维护好国家意识形态安全。     

回溯性求偿与国际战争的诱发

既有理性主义战争成因理论认为围绕战争的预期效用计算主导着国家冲突行为的选择。将沉没成本和各类既往互动经历纳入效用计算在上述理论路径下被视为非理性行为。这种理论偏见限制了理性主义战争成因理论的解释力。事实上，对于物质和时间沉没成本的关注导致了国家行为体互动时呈现极端的相对收益敏感。为规避特定一方的相对物质收益或时间优势过度累积而使冲突双方实力失衡，自认为处于损失框架下的国家不时地采取无法被对方所接受的回溯性求偿行为，进而使冲突双方的和解方案交集被极大限缩；加之求偿国与被求偿国判断对方所持决策框架时产生的认知落差，冲突双方的风险承担意愿随之增加，同时双方也高估对方的敌意而低估对方的冲突决心，冲突升级为战争的可能性因而增加。2022年的乌克兰危机和第一次世界大战前的军事动员竞赛可以分别论证两类典型的回溯性求偿行为——围绕物质利益争夺展开的受害者—加害者战略互动和为争夺时间优势而被迫采取的后发先至策略——对国际战争的诱发性影响。     

Challenging Bipolarity: The Socialist International and the ‘Chilean Democratic Cause’ during the Cold War

This article analyses, the Socialist International's (SI) new international positioning strategies from a transnational perspective, through its relationship with the Chilean cause in the context of the Cold War détente. Focus will be placed on the SI's strong commitment to the Chilean democratic cause after the coup and its sustained activism during the military regime. Drawing from primary sources in various international archives, this article's main goal is to shed light on the SI's positioning regarding Latin America as a way to challenge the bipolar order.     

抗战前后新启蒙思潮的“中国化”转向及运行困境

受特殊运行环境的激发，新启蒙思潮开启了由“西化”向“中国化”的转型尝试。然而，思想启蒙的实现程度，总是取决于它满足该国家需要的程度。由于对民族文化特别是儒家传统救国意义的过分迷恋和畸形阐发，新启蒙思潮没能形成对中国国情的全面把握，其“中国化”话语出现了批判意识与保守情结、“济天下”与“善其身”、文化包容与权威整合、民族觉醒与个性解放等关系的调处困境，最终在继承与超越、传统与现代等一系列博弈斗争中，左右摇摆、顾此失彼，没能形成对中国化进程的系统推动。当前，“中国化”话语的建构应在马克思主义的指导下，依托民众主体力量，着眼于现实实践的主题变化，充分激发社会主义制度优势，才能超越对旧传统的过分纠葛，开拓出更为广阔的创新前景。