Economic voting in Latin America: A general model

Economics and elections have been much-studied in the highincome democracies of North America and Europe. However, little is known, especially comparatively, about economic voting in low-income democracies, such as those of Latin America. Here we offer the first comparative election study of the economic vote in this region. We apply a series of ever-more demanding statistical tests to an election survey pool of 12 Latin American nations, measured at three time periods (total N > 7000). Unambiguously, the finding is of highly significant, even strong, sociotropic retrospective economic effects on the incumbent vote. In Latin America, as in other democratic nations studied thus far, governments are rewarded or punished, according to the economic performance they command.     

How the Bush and Gore Campaigns Conceptualized and Used the Internet in 2000

Abstract

Political scientists and campaign professionals have been intrigued by the potential of the Internet as a tool for accessing and conveying political information since the mass marketing of the first Web browser in 1993. Optimists have pointed to the possibility for more expansive participation and more substantive, in-depth issue discussions. Pessimists have countered that universal access to the Internet is still years down the road, pointing out there is little reason to believe campaigns will use the Internet either to spice up or to elevate the national political conversation. Such long-term assessments are premature, but we can offer preliminary assessments of how candidates conceptualize and use the Internet. Relying on surveys of online registered voters and interviews with campaign operatives and Webmasters, I examine how the online electorate was perceived and approached by the Bush and Gore campaigns in 2000.1 find that (1) voters were unlikely to seek political information from candidate or party Web sites, (2) voters were skeptical of information presented on these sites, and (3) the campaigns understood this and therefore saw the Internet primarily as a vehicle for internal communication and grassroots activation.     

Electoral accountability in the developing world

Do citizens of the developing world behave as economic voters? Do they blame and reward incumbent governments for their perceived economic performance? In addressing these questions, the current paper fills an important void left by the extant literature by adopting a large-n approach with the use of public opinion survey data and by focusing on emerging democracies of the developing world. The proposed analysis develops a series of incumbent support models to assess the impact of economic assessments. It relies on the use of public opinion survey data from countries of Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, South and East Asia, and the Arab world. The paper contributes to the extant literature at the empirical, methodological, and theoretical levels. Empirically, it provides a unique and systematic account of the phenomenon through a large-scale comparative approach. Theoretically, it contributes to the debate on the value of economic voting to explain electoral behavior in the developing world. Methodologically, it shows that using presidential approval is a fair alternative to vote choice and that a full model specification is not absolutely necessary to estimating the economic effect.     

北京外来人口调控对京津冀协同发展的推动作用探析[1]

京津冀协同发展战略与北京外来人口调控之间是整体与部分、系统与子系统的关系，无论是从静态还是从动态的角度来看，都可以得出两个基本判断：其一，京津冀协同发展战略对北京外来人口调控具有重要的引领作用；其二，北京外来人口调控对京津冀协同发展具有积极的推动作用。本文着重研究后一种作用，从调控北京外来人口是完成京津冀协同发展核心任务的必然选择、调控北京外来人口是加快区域协同发展的有效途径这两大方面对其作了较深入而具体的阐述。     

理性看待中国在世界银行投票权的扩大

我国在世界银行投票权的扩大,为更好维护国家利益提供了平台,为实现发达国家与发展中国家平等享受世界银行投票权奠定了基础,也为中国提高在世界银行话语权提供了信用支撑。但是,我们不应该对中国在世界银行投票权扩大的实际价值有过高的期望,投票权扩大并不能改变中国处于发展中国家的定位,也没有动摇美国一股独大的局面,投票权扩大意味着中国将承担更多的责任,因而应理性看待这一改革。     

Economics and elections: Effects deep and wide

Introduction to a Special Edition of Electoral Studies, by the co-editors. Papers included in this special issue were originally presented at a pair of conferences on economic voting that were held at the University of Iowa and Texas A&M University in the spring of 2012.     

First-order,second-order or third-rate? A comparison of turnout in European,local and national elections in the Netherlands

Second-order elections are characterized by low turnout. According to the second-order theory this is because people feel there is less at stake. This study tests whether the less at stake argument holds at the macro and micro level using panel survey data obtained in three different Dutch elections. Furthermore, it examines whether campaigns' mobilizing potential differs between first- and second-order elections. We find that at the macro level perceived stakes and low turnout go hand in hand and differ strongly between national, local and European elections. At the micro level the impact of perceived stakes on turnout is limited and contingent on the type of election. Also, campaign exposure affects turnout, but the effect is substantially larger in second-order contests.     

累积投票制的引入与实践——以上市公司为例的经验性观察

在学界和社会各界的呼吁下,2005年公司法修订时引入了任意性累积投票制。累积投票制作为公司董事、监事的选举制度,目的是为了保护少数股东的权利。虽然立法上采取了任意性累积投票制,但实践中绝大多数样本上市公司实施了累积投票制,这与监管机构和证券交易所对累积投票制倾向于采取强制主义的态度是分不开的。实证数据显示,一方面在目前的股权结构下累积投票制的实施有很强的现实意义,另一方面累积投票制在上市公司中未能得以有效实施。存在诸多有待解决的影响累积投票制有效实施的问题,包括等额选举、股东大会会议出席率低以及表决权的不当行使等实践层面的问题,也包括提名资格限制、当选原则、选举方法以及独立董事、非独立董事和监事分别选举等制度层面的问题。从数学的角度分析,累积投票制在我国上市公司中存在实施的空间和价值。     

Dual citizenship and sovereignty

Multiple and dual citizenship in the past decades have become widely accepted worldwide. Leading scholars in citizenship studies claim that the growing tolerance of dual citizenship signals the weakening of state sovereignty and the emergence of transnational, post-national or cosmopolitan norms. This paper argues that multiple citizenship standards are neither universally accepted, nor normatively compelling. The cases referred to are intended to demonstrate that contrary to the above assessments, dual citizenship is also used by states to increase their sovereignty, for example promoting national interest abroad through expatriates and trans-border minorities. It is also argued that, in addition to the classical territorial sovereignty- and security-related dilemmas, dual-citizenship policies may violate the norms of democratic equality and popular sovereignty. The paper concludes that the inevitably growing toleration of non-monogamous state-citizen relationships should not be interpreted as a normative justification of promiscuous citizenship policies.     

Rising powers at the UN: an analysis of the voting behaviour of brics in the General Assembly

This article examines the long-term trends of foreign policy convergence of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (brics) to determine the similarity of their positions on world issues, as they seek to ‘insert’ themselves more fully into global decision making. The analysis is based upon their votes in the UN General Assembly. The article compiles two indexes of voting for the period 1974–2011. Both demonstrate a high and now growing degree of cohesion among brics. Their voting is broken down by pairs to show common themes and the major issue divergences, and how often individual states voted with others. Nuclear disarmament and human rights are the two areas that reveal persisting divergences between these states.