Precinct resources and voter wait times

The amount of time that voters wait in line while casting their ballots has been a matter of consternation in electorates across the world and a subject of ongoing academic research in the field of election administration. With this as context, we offer here a study of voting lines that combines observed voter arrival times and measures of precinct processes with simulation results. Empirically, we focus on the town of Hanover, New Hampshire, during the 2014 United States General Election. Voters in Hanover initially authenticate themselves to election officials, mark their ballots in secret, and finally insert said ballots into optical scan tabulating machines. These steps are reasonably generic, and thus the way we study Hanover voters is generalizable to the study of voters in democracies across the world. Our simulations show that line voting evolution can be studied after a simple data-collection plan is implemented, and we show how scholars and election officials can evaluate the effects of changing precinct resources, like the numbers of voter authentication stations and voting booths, on the formation and duration of voting lines.     

Electoral-system change in Latvia and the elections of 2010

Latvia’s highly distinctive proportional electoral system owes its origins to Latvia’s 1922 Constitution and the new democracy’s electoral legislation of 1919 and 1922. Latvia’s unique feature lies in its preference system, offering the voters the opportunity to judge each candidate on their party’s list. Although the system appears to maximise responsiveness to voters’ preferences, in practice this promise remained unfulfilled and the representative quality of parliament was questionable. This was in large measure because of the capacity of candidates to stand in multiple constituencies. In 2009 amendments to the electoral law altered this key provision. This change clearly made a difference, but it could not resolve fundamental problems of Latvia’s political process in general and its political parties in particular.     

Winds of Change? The June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey

Held in an environment of growing social polarisation, fears of emergent authoritarianism, and economic challenges, Turkey’s June 2015 election ended the Adalet ve Kalk?nma Partisi’s (AKP’s) parliamentary majority, challenging its single-party rule for the first time in 13 years. This article first provides information on the background to the election, focusing on debates about the authoritarian tendencies of AKP, economic conditions, and the competition for the Kurdish vote. Then, a brief overview of the campaign period is presented, followed by an analysis of election results at the sub-national level. The article concludes with some preliminary discussion of the causes of the loss of AKP’s majority.     

Party nationalization in a multilevel context: Where's the variance?

We use estimates of variance in district-level electoral data as a way to identify multiple dimensions of the nationalization of party support, including “static nationalization” and “dynamic nationalization.” The multilevel model we use—also described as a random coefficient, mixed, growth curve, and hierarchical model—yields estimates of a party's mean national trajectory of electoral support (fixed effects), as well as estimates of variability around the mean trajectory parameters (random effects). Using a general model, we present a two-step approach to first identify electoral variability and then account for it. We develop the model, apply it to three political parties, demonstrate its behavior under controlled conditions using data we create, and demonstrate its application for explanatory purposes.     

Laying the cornerstone of new China

The results of Malaysia’s 14^th General Elections held in May this year were unexpected and transformative. Against conventional wisdom, the newly-reconfigured opposition grouping Pakatan Harapan decisively defeated the incumbent Barisan Nasional. Despite a long-running financial scandal dogging the incumbents, an opposition victory had been all but discarded due to the advantages of incumbency, a deep fissure amongst opposition ranks, and a favourable economic outlook. Notwithstanding this, deeply-rooted political dynamics and influential actors came together, reconfiguring the country’s political landscape in the process. In order to understand the elections and their implications, this article sets out the country’s institutional context and then identifies key drivers and agents of change. From there, it assesses the conduct of the elections, analyses their results, and explores implications for the future.     

First-order,second-order or third-rate? A comparison of turnout in European,local and national elections in the Netherlands

Second-order elections are characterized by low turnout. According to the second-order theory this is because people feel there is less at stake. This study tests whether the less at stake argument holds at the macro and micro level using panel survey data obtained in three different Dutch elections. Furthermore, it examines whether campaigns' mobilizing potential differs between first- and second-order elections. We find that at the macro level perceived stakes and low turnout go hand in hand and differ strongly between national, local and European elections. At the micro level the impact of perceived stakes on turnout is limited and contingent on the type of election. Also, campaign exposure affects turnout, but the effect is substantially larger in second-order contests.     

Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level

This paper develops new fundamental models for forecasting presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections at the state level using fundamental data. Despite the fact that our models can be used to make forecasts of elections earlier than existing models and they do not use data from polls on voting intentions, our models have lower out-of-sample forecasting errors than existing models. Our models also provide early and accurate probabilities of victory. We obtain this accuracy by constructing new methods of incorporating various economic and political indicators into forecasting models. We also obtain new results about the relative importance of approval ratings, economic indicators, and midterm effects in the different types of races, how economic data can be most meaningfully incorporated in forecasting models, the effects of different types of candidate experience on election outcomes, and that second quarter data is as predictive of election outcomes as third quarter data.     

Living Parallel Lives: Italy and Greece in an Age of Austerity

The economic crisis has triggered a process of political convergence between Italy and Greece. The simultaneous downfall of the Italian and Greek governments, following the public withdrawal of European confidence in their ability to handle the crisis, was followed by the establishment of technocrat-led governments based on parliamentary ‘super-majorities’ and then by ‘protest elections’, marked by unprecedented levels of electoral volatility. By apparently ending bipolarism, the crisis has completely changed patterns of national government formation and resulted in experiments with unusual government types. Both political systems have entered a transitional phase whose outcome is anything but certain, especially in the continuing context of economic crisis.     

A Landlord's Notice to Quit: The May 2012 Municipal Elections in Italy

This article explores the significance of the local elections of May 2012 for the general direction of change in Italian politics. The forces of the centre-right were deserted en masse but without those of the centre-left effectively capitalising on the discontent, which was, instead, expressed by the spectacular advance of the ‘non-party’, the almost completely novel Five-Star Movement. As the last major contest on the political agenda before the next general election due in no more than a year, the May outcome revealed just how difficult it was likely to be for either of the two coalitions to obtain a clear victory on that occasion. The article discusses the extent and the nature of these difficulties – deriving from voters' clear rejection of ‘politics as usual’ – by analysing the run-up, the campaign, the outcome and the aftermath of the May elections.     

Obtaining Party Positions on Immigration in Switzerland: Comparing Different Methods

The position of political parties on policy issues is crucial for many questions of political science, including studies of political representation. This research note examines different methods for obtaining party positions on immigration in retrospective. Party positions are obtained using pooled expert surveys, manual coding of party manifestos with a conventional codebook, manual coding of manifestos using check‐lists, and automatic coding of manifestos using Wordscores and a dictionary of keywords respectively. In addition, positions from a media analysis and a retrospective evaluation of researchers in the field of immigration are used. The results suggest that most methods differentiate the same order of party positions. While there are high correlations between many methods, the different methods tend not to agree on the exact positions. The automatic dictionary approach does not seem to measure party positions reliably.