论侦查推理中的或然性推理

或然性推理由于其结论不必然为真 ,在形式逻辑体系中一直未受到重视。然而 ,或然性推理不要求推理前提绝对真实可靠 ,也不要求推理形式严格有效 ,因此 ,在侦查推理中被大量运用。在侦查破案活动中 ,由于客观情况复杂多变 ,侦查推理的前提不可能做到绝对真实可靠 ,并且侦查推理的形式灵活多样 ,很难保证其完全符合形式逻辑推理的规则 ,因此 ,侦查活动中运用的推理可以是、而且更多的情况下是或然性的推理     

The dynamics of the extreme right support: A growth curve model of the populist vote in Flanders-Belgium in 1987–2007

In the last 20 years, extreme right parties have gained a substantial share of electorate in a number of Western European countries. Despite of substantial research interest, the reasons for the popularity of the Extreme Right parties presented in the studies are often contradictory. Our study has a two-fold contribution to the topic. First, we show that studies based on aggregate data analysis may yield biased results that are not confirmed when contextual and individual-level data are fitted together using the growth curve analysis. Second, we argue that the analysis of extreme-right vote based on one election suggests a constant effect of contextual variables on the outcome variable. We demonstrate that the effects of local context vary over time, and hence should be modeled using the multilevel (growth curve) approach.     

Provisional concepts and definitions of fact

The paper explains and differentiates the concept of ‘fact’ in the legal setting. Fact and evidence, fact/falsity distinguished; fact and law considered -- a real difference or a pragmatic device? Questions of fact and degree considered, in themselves and in the context of jury trial and of appeals. Primary fact, factual inferences from primary fact, questions of classification of fact are considered. Whether inference is supported by evidence, and whether classification is correct may be questions of law. Issues of fact and opinion, fact and comment, relative to freedom of speech, defamation etc: no clear distinction available. Legal problems concerning absence of workable distinctions.

     

中国传统文化的生态哲学意蕴及启示

悠久灿烂的中华传统文化具有丰富的生态哲学思想内涵。尤其是古代各流派思想家在探索认识自然规律,适应和改造生存环境,实现与自然生态系统和谐相处的实践中,形成了独特的生态文化价值观。重新审视并借鉴古代生态哲学思想,对于保护生态环境、创建以人与自然和谐统一为主要特征的现代新型生态文明,具有重要的启示意义和时代价值。     

Ballot-Box Vigilantism? Ethnic Population Shifts and Xenophobic Voting in Post-Soviet Russia

To what extent does voting for anti-immigrant parties relate to long-term changes in ethnic composition within states? Four theoretical models are developed, based on studies of interethnic attitudes, housing segregation, racial violence, and hate crime in the United States. Each model is tested with the data on ethnic composition of the Russian Federation from 1989 to 2002 and voting for the extreme nationalist Zhirinovsky Bloc in the 2003 parliamentary election, using multiple regression and ecological inference methods. Most consistently supported is the “defended nationhood” model derived from the sociology of neighborhood vigilantism and the psychology of the security dilemma. Non-trivial, counterintuitive findings are: (1) xenophobic voting was responsive to changes in the proportion of some ethnic groups more so than others and not necessarily those that were more numerous or more widely disliked at the time of the vote (Chechens), but those that raised more uncertainty about the future ethnic composition and identity of the state (Asians); (2) levels of change, but not the rapidity of change in the ethnic composition of the population related significantly to xenophobic voting; and (3) greater percentage of the nation’s dominant ethnic group in a region reduced xenophobic voting by members of that dominant group (the highest share of Slavs voted for Zhirinovsky in the ethnically mixed Volga-Urals area).     

构建企业可持续发展能力的绿色化支持系统

为突破国际市场的“绿色壁垒”与提高企业可持续发展能力,企业自身和社会应为企业绿色化经营提供相应的支持系统:绿色战略要素规划、绿色企业家、绿色技术创新、绿色基金、绿色营销和企业绿色文化建设支持系统。这些支持系统的构建有助于创建以追求经济效益和环境效益最优化为目标的新型企业组织形式和提高企业自身的可持续发展能力。     

生态环境差异认可与环境保护建设 --以湖南小溪国家自然保护区为例

我国是一个幅员辽阔、地质结构复杂的发展中国家,不同的区域在自然禀赋上存在极大差异,承认生态环境的差异合理性并根据差异制定出不同的发展方略既是对自然规律的尊重,也是现代文明多种生活方式自主选择的必然要求.对生态环境的差异认可是更高层次的对现代化的理解以及更高层次的对现代人的尊重.     

回溯推理的适用问题及反思

回溯推理逐渐为国内学界所关注,而学界对其基本概念、特征、模式的研究已是初成体系。本文在回顾了目前关于回溯推理的整体研究状况后,以对现实案例的分析入手,探讨了回溯推理在具体案件中的适用状况,从而引出对当下回溯推理的反思。     

浅论思想政治教育的生态价值

生态环境问题已成为一个时代的问题。面临着人类的生态危机,思想政治教育要有所作为。突破原有价值局限,除了为物质文明、政治文明、精神文明服务外,还应该为生态文明建设服务,挖掘、深化并实现思想政治教育生态价值是时代所赋予的新课题。