What Is In a (Non‐) Significant Finding? Moving Beyond False Dichotomies

One of the most problematic aspect of p‐values is the tendency to dichotomize, whereby statistical significance is equated with scientifically worthwhile and insignificance with worthless findings. This article outlines two approaches that move beyond such dichotomies: minimum Bayes factors and the analysis of credibility. Their use is illustrated through a simple example. The examples show that significant findings may not always be as telling as statistical significance would suggest, whereas non‐significant findings may contain considerable evidence about effects.     

论古代蒙古族的生态环境保护

古代蒙古族在自己长期的游牧生产和生活中所形成的习俗、宗教、道德、立法等领域蕴涵着许多比较符合自己游牧文明的生态环保思想意识,即人与自然协调平衡的发展观、对动植物有恻隐之心的生态伦理观、认为自然资源或自然要素是无比珍贵的价值观。这些正确的环保思想意识是我国古代优秀的民族文明成果,它对于我国目前日益恶化的环境问题和西部大开发活动中民族地区的环境保护有重大的现实借鉴意义和智慧启悟。     

生态旅游与海南旅游业的可持续发展

本文在对生态旅游概念作出科学界定的基础上,针对海南旅游业发展中存在的问题,从海南旅游资源的特点出发,论述了生态旅游是海南旅游可持续发展的必由之路,并就海南生态旅游开发的基本思路及应注意的问题提出了初步的设想和建设。     

冬季且被严重焚烧的尸体上也会有昆虫

一例凶杀案件发生于广东省最冷的1-2月,尸体经过了焚烧至大部分组织炭化,但在该被害者身上仍旧发现了蝇类昆虫,应用这些昆虫的发育进度准确的推断出了死亡时间。与其它季节未经过焚烧的尸体比较,该现场昆虫的种类、数量均明显减少,昆虫也主要分布于尸体下方避风处的腐败物质中。另外,在该尸体上片状分布着一层霉菌,这些霉菌的状态显然有时间相关性,提示我们通过对霉菌的研究也能找到死亡时间的线索。     

Electoral consequences of declining participation: A natural experiment in Austria

Participation rates have declined sharply across developed democracies. But the precise impact of this decline on party systems has proven difficult to study due to endogeneity concerns. This paper seeks to address this issue by leveraging a natural experiment in Austrian parliamentary elections. By examining instances in which compulsory voting was gradually repealed in a federal setting, I isolate the causal relationship between turnout decline and subsequent shifts in party vote share. The findings suggest that turnout decline is not associated with a significant redistribution of votes between parties. The clearest visible effect is a consolidation of the party system, with a mild shift in votes from minor to mainstream parties. Evaluating the findings, the paper argues that characteristics of proportional representation systems insulate parties against the consequences of declining electoral participation.     

“生态文明建设”——人与自然永续发展的战略选择

生态文明建设是党在新形势下面对的一项重大课题。生态文明建设是人与自然永续发展的战略选择,更是马克思主义的深层内涵。在生态文明建设过程中,呈现出一系列的社会问题和困难,只有做好政府与人民共同、理念与行动共同、发展与环境共同,才能实现生态文明,尊重自然,实现人类与自然永续发展。     

Field Experimental Designs for the Study of Media Effects

Field experimentation is a promising but seldom used method for studying the effects of media messages on political attitudes and behavior. The practical challenges of conducting media experiments in real-world settings often come down to securing cooperation from research partners, such as political campaigns. To do so, researchers must be prepared to adapt their experimental designs to satisfy the constraints imposed by research partners and the media environment in which they operate. This article provides an overview of some alternative field experimental designs that allow researchers to maintain the advantages of random assignment while addressing practical considerations. Examples are drawn from the growing field experimental literature examining the effects of television, radio, and online communication.     

禁伐条件下的集体林改革——秦岭山区三村调查

南方集体林改革主要涉及到经济林和用材林,但是在生态林占主要成份的西北地区,要同时满足提高村民收入和保护生态环境双重目的,林权制度应如何改革还没有经验。基于在秦岭山区太白县和眉县的调查,我们发现,森林是多功能的,可以满足周围村民的多种需求;木材过量采伐主要是由不规范的市场所造成的,与林权的关系不大;林权制度改革必须做到透明和公平,尊重村民的习惯制度,满足村民的多种需求。     

司法审判的法哲学分析

司法判决是制度、事实、个人活动的合因之果,判决形成的思维工具包括法律解释和法律推理;判决以确定性为特征,而法官形成判决过程中的判断却具有综合性。     

论循环型社会发展的执行体系与制度创新——以江苏为例

循环社会发展的本质特征是一种社会生活方式和生产及消费模式的转型,即从注重物质消费经济人向注重人与自然和谐、追求环境质量最大化的生态人的转型。近年来江苏的现代化进程和社会经济进一步协调发展为这种系统转型提供了较好的社会基础,而积极构建循环型社会的规划建设体系、政策支撑体系、组织管理体系、制度推进体系、法律保障体系,将为循环社会的建成提供基本动力和重要条件。