To adapt or to defend? Comparing position shifts among Bundestag candidates between 2013 and 2017

In this research note, candidate survey data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) is used to analyse positional shifts of German Bundestag parties between 2013 and 2017. Two developments make Germany a particularly interesting case: (1) the liberal but also controversial policies of the Merkel cabinet during the European refugee crisis and (2) the change of leadership within the right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Applying scaling techniques to locate candidates of both elections in the same two-dimensional policy space, the analysis demonstrates that in 2017 the AfD took a distinct radical right position in the party system of Germany. Moreover, the study finds that almost all parties moved to the right on the cultural left–right dimension in 2017, whereas for the economic left–right dimension this has not been the case. Contrary to the mantra of an ideological delineation against right-wing populism, there has been a robust socio-political conservative shift in the German party system.     

The contingent effect of institutions: Electoral formulas,ethnic polarization,and election quality

This paper builds on existing studies linking formal electoral institutions to democracy. It reveals that there is an interactive effect between the electoral formula and the levels of ethnic polarization that systematically influences the quality of elections and the probability of government turnover. Proportional representation is associated with better elections and more frequent government turnover than single-member district majority formulas in ethnically polarized countries. However, the opposite is true when ethno-cultural groups are not numerous or polarized. This study contributes to the existing literature on formal political institutions by presenting evidence that the electoral formula's impact on governance is contingent on the context in which such institutions operate.     

The Morning After: The Effect of the Network Call for Bush

By the weekend following the election of 2000, two possible frames were available to the press covering developments in Florida. In the first, Gore had won the popular vote and the outcome in the electoral college was uncertain. In the second, Bush was ahead in the vote in the state that would determine the results in the electoral college and, as such, the presumed victor until Gore proved otherwise. Elite discourse as revealed in Sunday morning talk shows eventually settled into the second frame, but not until the certification of the Florida vote by Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris. Elite discourse was not, however, beneficial to Bush in the early weeks of the protest phase of the election.     

对2012“大选年”世界变局的几点看法

2012年是世界＂大选年＂,纵观＂大选＂的诸多国家,＂选情＂主要可分为主要大国、阿拉伯世界中＂变天＂国家的政治＂重建＂、欧元区国家和新兴经济体国家四类。大量国家与地区的权力交接导致国际形势不确定性增大,深刻影响世界走向,影响有关国家本身发展,影响热点地区与热点问题产生,影响大国关系。主要大国集中换届加剧大国综合国力竞争,中国应统筹国际国内两个大局,一方面,要淡定、从容、自信、包容,另一方面,也要有的放矢、积极预防各类风险,稳妥应对世界新变局。     

印共(马)大选败北:反思与未来

在印度第15届人民院选举中,印共(马)惨败。面对选举失利,印共(马)深刻反省,土地与工业化政策失误、官僚主义与疏离人民、遭遇强有力政治对手是其失败的主要因素。全党将从大选失败中吸取教训,重塑党与人民之间的紧密联系,致力于左翼的团结,有效监督国大党领导的中央政府,继续捍卫世俗主义与独立的外交政策。     

Forecasting proportional representation elections from non-representative expectation surveys

This study tests non-representative expectation surveys as a method for forecasting elections. For dichotomous forecasts of the 2013 German election (e.g., who will be chancellor, which parties will enter parliament), two non-representative citizen samples performed equally well than a benchmark group of experts. For vote-share forecasts, the sample of more knowledgeable and interested citizens performed similar to experts and quantitative models, and outperformed the less informed citizens. Furthermore, both citizen samples outperformed prediction markets but provided less accurate forecasts than representative polls. The results suggest that non-representative surveys can provide a useful low-cost forecasting method, in particular for small-scale elections, where it may not be feasible or cost-effective to use established methods such as representative polls or prediction markets.     

缅甸2010年大选前的政治经济形势

缅甸2010年大选在即,除了对外关系上与美国的关系出现转机之外,其国内政治经济形势也很值得分析.首先是民主运动节节退却,民盟将不参加大选;种族骚乱有惊无险,包括果敢在内的三支少数民族地方武装已经被改编成边防军;经济上受惠于宽松的环境,也取得了较大的发展.     

村委会选举的法律渊源

村委会选举的法律渊源,即村委会选举法律规范借以存在和表现的形式,包括宪法、法律、法规、规章、其他规范性文件和法的有权解释。基本的法律渊源与基本法律并不是一回事情,村委会组织法从严格的宪法意义上来讲,在国家的法律体系中并不是一部基本法律。对村委会选举作出规定的“中办”、“国办”“两办通知”虽不在立法法规定的法规、规章之列,但不应将其排除于村委会选举的法律渊源之外。目前,有必要制定一部全国统一的村委会选举法。     

马来西亚政局突变的混沌学解读

2008年的马来西亚大选,出现了所有政评家都意想不到的结果,即执政的国阵失去数十年以来一直保有的多数国会议席和五个州政权.本文运用混沌理论对此"不规则"现象进行解读,先后分析选前形势,印度人示威及其对其他族群选民的影响,网络传播与政治动员的关系等.本文认为,政治领域和其他领域一样,也存在"混沌"或"不规则", "网络政治"特点,使当代政治的"不规则"日渐增多,传统定常的政治分析方法面临着新的挑战.