Methodologies of election forecasting: Calling the 2010 UK “hung parliament”

Election forecasting has experienced considerable growth as a subfield within political science. Research work on United Kingdom elections has been cutting edge here. The recent 2010 general election afforded the opportunity for a trial of different forecasting methodologies. These efforts are showcased in this volume, and include standard, and not-so-standard, statistical models. Overall, these models perform well, foreseeing the unprecedented outcome of a “hung parliament”, as most pollsters and pundits did not. Moreover, they achieved this accuracy with forecasts well in advance of the election itself.     

Expediency always wins over ideology: Putin’s attitudes toward the Russian Communist Party

Vladimir Putin provides us with an excellent example of a politician whose attitude toward ideology is instrumental to his political longevity. He has shown that in the fight between ideology and political expedience, to maintain authority and control within the country, or to achieve geopolitical ambitions in the international arena, ideology will almost always lose the battle. It is well known that the major threat to political power stems often not from the adversary who holds diametrically opposite views, but from the rivals who share almost the same ideological position. The closer the ideological position is of a rival, the more intense the competition. For just this reason Putin is implacable toward Communists who share many of his views. He tries as much as possible to reduce the political role of the Communist party - the most serious opposition to the regime - by using the same underhanded tactics which are used against the liberals.     

The election timing advantage: Empirical fact or fiction?

Do non-fixed election dates in Westminster parliamentary democracies create an unfair incumbent advantage? The consensus in the literature is that the incumbent party can gain an advantage at the ballot box by controlling election timing (Bakvis, 2001; Docherty, 2010; Smith, 2004; White, 2005; Wolinetz, 2005). Surprisingly, however, there is a lack of empirical evidence to support this claim. We address this lacuna by providing an empirical test of whether the election-timing power matters for incumbent vote support. We do so by employing an innovative web-based voting experiment. Our findings show that the government does gain an advantage by timing an election when it is to their advantage, but the context is limited to conditions where the election follows immediately after a heightened level of positive government coverage.     

村干部竞选者的竞选动机及特点——基于需求ERG理论的实证研究

基于需求ERG理论与适应性行为理论,研究讨论了我国现阶段参与村干部选举中的竞选者动机,并根据事实驱动的研究策略,构建了参与村干部竞选的竞选动机量表,分析了现阶段我国村干部竞选者的竞选动机特征.研究表明,村干部竞选者参与竞选主要包括社会关系、经济收入、权力权利、公共服务和跟风盲从等五种动机.研究发现,从村干部竞选者整体来看,最重要竞选动机是对社会关系的追求,其次是对经济收入和权力权利的追求,对公共服务和对跟风盲从的追求显著低于前三者;从村干部竞选者个体来看,基于性别、年龄、教育、收入、工作经历等不同的需求各异的竞选者竞选动机各有不同.研究丰富了我们对村民自治参与的认识、农民政治参与的认识,为村庄选举制度的完善提供了理论依据.     

俄罗斯的发展道路

发展道路从本质上讲是一种价值取向,概括了俄罗斯社会发展的本质和目的,体现了传统与现代、民主化与国情的深刻辩证关系,并要求建立可以确保实现俄罗斯发展理念的机制。俄罗斯发展道路的调整与完善,是第六届国家杜马选举和总统大选的主要议程。当前,俄罗斯进入了全面发展的新阶段。加强政治竞争性是新阶段的新特点,其实质是俄罗斯新权威主义政体的改革问题。俄罗斯发展道路的调整面临挑战,主要包括国家资本主义模式的前景、国家与市场关系的协调、"统一俄罗斯"党的政党现代化、行政管理模式的改变、民意政治的挑战、社会政策的实施,以及国际战略的调整等一系列问题。俄罗斯究竟具有怎样的国家特性,如何看待俄罗斯的民主,如何看待发展道路的间断性,如何在俄国历史中理解历史俄国,这些都是研究俄罗斯发展道路的基础性问题。俄罗斯的国家身份认定从历史上就与帝国意识紧紧捆绑。这种自我意识在本质上缺乏对他者文化的尊重。这是当今俄罗斯如何融入世界的关键问题。精英阶层关于俄罗斯是"欧洲太平洋国家"的身份认定、新民族主义的思想倾向与"欧亚联盟"战略互为影响,是俄罗斯发展前景中值得关注的趋势。     

140 characters to victory?: Using Twitter to predict the UK 2015 General Election

This paper uses Twitter data to forecast the outcome of the 2015 UK General Election. While a number of empirical studies to date have demonstrated striking levels of accuracy in estimating election results using this new data source, there have been no genuine i.e. pre-election forecasts issued to date. Furthermore there have been widely varying methods and models employed with seemingly little agreement on the core criteria required for an accurate estimate. We attempt to address this deficit with our ‘baseline’ model of prediction that incorporates sentiment analysis and prior party support to generate a true forecast of parliament seat allocation. Our results indicate a hung parliament with Labour holding the majority of seats.     

All quiet on election day? International election observation and incentives for pre-election violence in African elections

This article argues that the increasing international interest in elections as exemplified by the rise of international election monitoring induces temporal shifts in the use of violent intimidation by political actors. The presence of international electoral missions lowers the potential for election-day violence relative to the pre-election period because domestic actors likely refrain from intimidating opposition candidates or voters before the eyes of international observers, but creates incentives for political actors to engage in violent manipulation in parts of the electoral process receiving considerably less international attention, such as the pre-election period. The article expects that international election observation increases the incidence of violent manipulation during electoral campaigns. An empirical analysis of election-related violence for African elections in the 1990–2009 period shows that the presence of election observers increases the incidence of pre-election violence, but has no effect on election-day violence.     

乡村秩序与县乡村体制——兼论农民的合作能力问题

当前农民的原子化状况使村庄很难内生秩序,而使得通过行政嵌入形成秩序成为宿命.强势的地方行政在维持地方秩序的同时又掠夺农民,谋取私利,因此必须通过体制内的县乡民主来制约地方行政.现实可行的途径是将乡镇政府改为县级的派出机构,并通过完善选举和强化县级人大职能来约束具有强势能力的县行政权力及其派出机构乡公所.当前县乡村改制的目标是"强县、弱乡、实村".     

Exchange Rate Regime,Central Bank Independence,and Political Business Cycles in Brazil

This article examines policy consequences of electoral cycles and exchange rate regime choices in Brazil. The literature on opportunistic political business cycles maintains that governments adopt expansionary economic policies before elections to mobilize voters’ support. However, research findings in Latin America based on the theory has been inconclusive. I argue that the lack of conclusive evidence in Latin America stems from measurement errors common in the use of cross-national aggregate data. Using Brazil’s monthly data from 1985 to 2006, this article shows that there are electorally induced fiscal cycles under fixed and crawling peg exchange rate regimes and electorally induced monetary cycles under floating exchange rates only when the nation’s central bank is not independent. Indeed, accounting for Brazil’s unique economic contingencies and longitudinal variations in the de facto central bank independence, its public policy behavior remarkably resembles that of the more affluent, economically stable OECD countries.