全国人大常委会的代表性探讨

人民代表机关应该而且必须具有代表性,即必须经过专用程序和方式代表人民的意愿和利益。代表性是人民代表机关的根本属性。人民代表机关只有具有代表性,才能保障自身的民主性质。只有人民代表机关具有代表性,整个政权体系才具有民主根基。全国人大常委会的代表性还很欠缺。缺乏代表性使全国人大常委会的民意代表机关的真实性成为问题;这又不能不影响全国人大常委会行使职权的正当性。应从选举环节和沟通环节增强全国人大常委会的代表性。     

Malapportionment in space and time: Decompose it!

Existing studies on legislative malapportionment often conceptualize and measure this phenomenon with little regard to intertemporal variations and the malapportionment-generating process (MGP). Our conceptualization leads us to introduce a measure called α-divergence that can identify the vote inequality derived from various stages of MGP. Using an originally created database that covers 440 elections in 112 countries, we decompose the overall degree of malapportionment into three stages: malapportionment that arises at the stages of interstate apportionment, intrastate districting, and allotment of seats to special districts. We also provide analyses that can decompose the demographic and political factors contributing to the trends of the overall degree of malapportionment for selected countries.     

The impact of election outcome on internal political efficacy: The role of contextual factors

Many studies have investigated the consequences of election outcome for one of the important public attitudes, political efficacy. The effect of election outcome on external efficacy has been confirmed by most previous studies, whereas the effect on internal efficacy is not clear-cut. By reconceptualizing internal efficacy based on the social cognitive theory of self-efficacy, this study argues that there are two conditions for an election outcome’s impact on internal efficacy: the expected difficulty of winning and the level of involvement in the election. By analyzing panel survey data collected for three Japanese Lower House elections, this study shows that election outcome exerted an impact on internal efficacy if the following two conditions were simultaneously satisfied: (1) winners/losers perceived that the election was difficult/easy to win, and (2) voters were deeply involved in the election process.     

“Wisdom of crowds”? A decentralised election forecasting model that uses citizens’ local expectations

Many studies report the “wonders of aggregation” and that groups (often) yield better decisions than individuals. Can this “wisdom of crowds”-effect be used to forecast elections? Forecasting models in first-past-the-post systems need to translate vote shares into seat shares by some formula; however, the seat–vote ratio alters from election to election. To circumvent this problem, this paper proposes citizen forecasting, which aggregates citizens’ local expectations to directly forecast constituencies. Using data from the 2010 British Election Study, this paper finds (1) that groups are better forecasters than individuals, (2) that citizen forecasting correctly predicts a hung parliament, and (3) that marginality and group size are important predictors for “getting it right”.     

2011年韩国政治外交述评与展望

2011年韩国的政治外交出现了不少新的变化。＂安哲秀现象＂的出现打破了长期以来保守和进步两派左右韩国政治的格局,韩国社会开始形成超越保守与进步理念的＂第三势力＂。朴槿惠、韩明淑等一批女性政治家活跃于韩国政坛,备受瞩目。韩国在继续强化韩美同盟关系的同时,进一步加强与中国的外交关系。为了克服国际金融危机的影响,韩国大力开展FTA外交,并取得了显著成果。2012年是韩国大选之年,韩国各种政治势力正在积极整合力量,希望在选举中谋求自己的利益最大化。韩国政府将继续调整与大国的关系,开展多边外交,并积极推进与中国和日本的FTA谈判。     

抗战时期陕甘宁边区的乡选运动及其启示

抗日战争时期,陕甘宁边区的选举运动是边区政权建设中最具民主特色和优势的一部分。尤其对于乡选①,边区政府更是完全从边区实际出发,制定了一系列切实可行的政策法规,开展了扎实到位的宣传工作,采取了灵活有效的选举办法,形成了一套完整而又颇具特色的选举模式。同时,边区的乡选也积累了丰富的选举经验。边区乡选对当今基层选举的启示是,民主的选举理念和原则是选举的灵魂,有效的动员机制是唤醒民众参选的重要法宝,人性化的选举方式是成功选举的可靠保证,彻底的监督检查既是选举的程序也是选举的目的。     

The Ségolène Royal Phenomenon: Political Renewal in France?

This article analyses Ségolène Royal's rise during 2006 to become the first ever female mainstream French presidential candidate in the context of ongoing presidentialising tendencies within the French Fifth Republic. It considers the extent to which Royal's candidacy represented a turning point for the French Left, not only because of her gender, but also because of her challenge to the Left's traditional organisational and ideological norms of presidential electoral politics. Her participatory democratic campaign organisation, Désirs d'Avenir by-passed traditional party authority structures throughout 2006. However, in the face of declining poll ratings, Royal's candidacy reverted to a more orthodox relationship to the PS as 'presidential party'. Ideologically, her novel political language and down-to-earth style combine with a complex blend of egalitarianism and authoritarianism which treads novel ground. Yet the intriguing elements of her political vision have struggled to coalesce into a coherent and credible presidential programme.     

2008年大选后马来西亚政党政治的走势

2008年大选后,马来西亚执政党近四十年来在国会中的绝对优势被打破,一党独大制正在受到日益增大的转型压力.国民阵线面临着如何重塑执政合法性的问题,而反对党则会在加强联合的基础上进一步向执政党发起挑战.但在新的形势下执政党仍然具有较强的制度韧性,凭借其结构性优势还能继续执政,真正意义上的两线制或两党制短期内难以确立.     

Bring the party back in: Institutional design for ‘smart election fraud’

Autocrats face a dilemma. Continue with fraudulent electoral practices and risk revolt, or reduce fraud and risk losing elections. One solution is to structure electoral governance such that it allows for independence and professionalism at the center, lending credibility to the electoral process, and partisan local-level administration, enabling fraud at the micro level. Partisan poll workers can help deliver the vote by the use of ‘smart fraud’ – fraud that minimizes the risk of being caught and is used only when needed. In Armenia, the ruling party's vote share, as a proportion of all registered voters, increases with 2.5 percentage points in polling stations where the chairperson was randomly assigned to the ruling party. Fraud forensics suggests that one of the mechanisms behind this was falsification of the results protocol during the count. I conjecture that fraud is only used in high-stakes elections and that election observers are unable to detect it.     

“These Few Small Boats”: Representations of Asylum Seekers During Australia’s 1977 and 2001 Elections

ABSTRACT

This paper compares the asylum-seeker discourses of prime minister Malcolm Fraser and his minister for immigration and ethnic affairs, Michael MacKellar, during Australia’s 1977 federal election campaign, with those of prime minister John Howard and his minister for immigration and multicultural affairs, Philip Ruddock, during the much-analysed 2001 election campaign. It argues that in 1977 Fraser was not an outspoken advocate for asylum seekers as he was later in life, but that his silence—when considered in conjunction with MacKellar’s emphatic and humanising statements—functioned to depoliticise boat arrivals and calm public concerns. Further, it demonstrates that the arguments prosecuted by the Howard government in 2001 were not new; similar arguments had been made in 1977 but were decisively rebutted by MacKellar at the time. This analysis ultimately suggests that while government discourses have the power to amplify the latent fears and hostilities that can lead to moral panics, they also have the capacity to defuse them.