Treated politicians,treated voters: A natural experiment on political budget cycles

Although pre-electoral political manipulation of the budget — the political budget cycle (PBC) — has been long investigated by scholars, empirical findings are mixed at best. This is partly because of the non-random nature of election timing. There also exist ongoing debates over how the budget is manipulated for electoral purposes. We address these issues by exploiting a natural experiment in Japan, where the timing of both executive and legislative elections in municipalities is fixed, staggered, and as good as random, and by using the detailed items of the municipal budget. We find that total and capital expenditures follow the PBC, but tax revenue does not. We also find that executive elections are associated with the PBC, but legislative elections are not. Against the conventional wisdom that democratic or developed countries are free from the PBC, our case of Japan offers an intriguing exception.     

Technology Firms Shape Political Communication: The Work of Microsoft,Facebook, Twitter,and Google With Campaigns During the 2016 U.S. Presidential Cycle

This article offers the first analysis of the role that technology companies, specifically Facebook, Twitter, Microsoft, and Google, play in shaping the political communication of electoral campaigns in the United States. We offer an empirical analysis of the work technology firms do around electoral politics through interviews with staffers at these firms and digital and social media directors of 2016 U.S. presidential primary and general election campaigns, in addition to field observations at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. We find that technology firms are motivated to work in the political space for marketing, advertising revenue, and relationship-building in the service of lobbying efforts. To facilitate this, these firms have developed organizational structures and staffing patterns that accord with the partisan nature of American politics. Furthermore, Facebook, Twitter, and Google go beyond promoting their services and facilitating digital advertising buys, actively shaping campaign communication through their close collaboration with political staffers. We show how representatives at these firms serve as quasi-digital consultants to campaigns, shaping digital strategy, content, and execution. Given this, we argue that political communication scholars need to consider social media firms as more active agents in political processes than previously appreciated in the literature.     

2011年韩国政治外交述评与展望

2011年韩国的政治外交出现了不少新的变化。＂安哲秀现象＂的出现打破了长期以来保守和进步两派左右韩国政治的格局,韩国社会开始形成超越保守与进步理念的＂第三势力＂。朴槿惠、韩明淑等一批女性政治家活跃于韩国政坛,备受瞩目。韩国在继续强化韩美同盟关系的同时,进一步加强与中国的外交关系。为了克服国际金融危机的影响,韩国大力开展FTA外交,并取得了显著成果。2012年是韩国大选之年,韩国各种政治势力正在积极整合力量,希望在选举中谋求自己的利益最大化。韩国政府将继续调整与大国的关系,开展多边外交,并积极推进与中国和日本的FTA谈判。     

韩国的地方选举和政党参与

以＂宪法＂和＂地方自治法＂为准绳,韩国实行地方自治制度,以团体自治和居民自治相结合的自治模式,由选举产生的各级地方议会、政府具体行使自治权。20世纪50年代,韩国经历了短暂的、不完全的地方自治,之后中断了31年。自20世纪90年代至2010年6月,韩国共举行了5次地方选举。韩国政党通过推荐或支持候选人参与教育监和教育议员以外的地方自治团体首长和地方议员的选举,积极地介入地方自治的整个过程,从另外一个侧面反映出了韩国政党的参政方式和特点。     

韩国政治中的选举活动与党内竞选

韩国于1948年5月10日举行选举,产生了制宪国会,制定了大韩民国宪法并成立了政府,这在韩国历史上具有特殊意义。但与西方建立的普通、平等、直接保密选举的民主式选举制度不同,由于韩国民众缺乏对选举制度的深刻认识,而且权利意识淡薄,因此历届选举均由于执政者的不正当介入,民意被极大歪曲。本文通过对现行选举制度的深层剖析来探讨韩国选举制度存在的问题以及今后面临的课题。     

选举与代际传承的紧张:村干部二代的产生逻辑——基于对湘中Z村的观察

村干部二代并不是世袭父辈的权力,而是在现代民主制度框架内选举产生。肥水不流外人田,村干部首先会选择自己的子女作为村庄权力的继承者;家庭先赋性资本会让其在竞选中赢在起跑线上;打铁还需自身硬,德才兼备才能赢得村民的支持;女大不中留,男性在村庄权力代际传承中有明显的性别优势;得民心者得选票,村干部二代的当选从根本上说是村民选择的结果;朝中有人好做官,村干部二代的产生也离不开乡镇政府的支持与认可。     

村落选举、公共性生产与合法性——以陕西Y村为例

转型期中国乡村基层村庄民主选举备受学界关注,学界分别从乡村治理、制度变迁、政治民主等角度考察这一问题。然而这些考察忽略了一个重要维度:乡村公共性主题。笔者认为这一主题才是乡村选举的实质和意涵。通过Y村选举及修路等涉及村落公共事务的个案,笔者考察当前村落选举与村庄公共性生产、村落公意和共识的关系,文章认为当前基层乡村依然延续了差序式的公共性生产模式。这种公共性生产模式与通过选举运作生产公共性的模式之间具有内在张力,正是这种张力导致试图透过西式选举达成村落公意和民众共识的设想在重建当代乡村公共性实践中遇到问题。     

超市自动存包服务法律性质探析

超市自动存包服务的法律性质应当视顾客的行为具体分析:当顾客进入超市消费成为消费者时,自动存包服务是商家的附属服务,消费者寄存物丢失毁损的,消费者可以依照《消费者权益保护法》获得赔偿;当顾客进入超市尚未消费而未成为消费者时,超市自动存包柜服务是商家的先契约义务,其利用超市自动存包柜寄存的物品发生丢失毁损的,顾客可以依据《合同法》,诉之法院获得赔偿。     

The Four Predicaments of American Liberalism: Challenges and Opportunities in a Presidential Election Year

The presidential campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have indicated an apparent resurgence in American liberalism. More significantly, they have underlined both the highly problematic nature of the liberal legacy within the Democratic Party and the difficulties of mobilising liberal themes in the battle of ideas that characterises the conduct of politics in the United States. The article examines the difficulty of the issue by reference to four predicaments that persistently condition the status and deployment of liberal themes. In analysing the problems of strategy, historical narrative, political positioning and ideational engagement, the study analyses the negative connotations of contemporary liberalism, the multiple limitations of liberal reform, and liberalism's deficiencies in the politics of America's core ideas. A revived liberal prospectus will depend upon the ingenuity of liberal forces in challenging the conservative ascendancy in ideational competition, and in renegotiating a public settlement of their own with the central strands of political legitimacy.     

A mixed blessing for the left? Early voting,turnout and election outcomes in Norway

Is there a relationship between turnout and election outcomes? Although this is a classic topic in political science, most studies on multiparty systems have important theoretical and empirical shortcomings. First, we argue that the proper implication of the theoretical argument that underpins research on the turnout-vote nexus is that high levels of turnout should typically benefit both traditional social democratic parties and parties of the radical right relative to other types of parties, including not only those of the traditional right, but also ‘left-libertarian’ parties. Second, few have studied the relationship between turnout and election outcomes with a research design that is appropriate for causal inference. In our empirical study, our identification strategy is to exploit a Norwegian reform of early voting rules as an exogenous source of variation in turnout. Our theoretical expectations are largely borne out in our empirical results.