Piecing it all together and forecasting who governs: The 2015 British general election

This paper discusses a new probabilistic forecasting method that was designed for the 2015 British general election. It proceeds in a series of steps from opinion poll averaging, forecasting national-level vote shares and uncertainty estimates, and subsequent simulation of hypothetical election results, through modelling of constituency polls and survey data to identify and adjust for patterns in the constituency-level variation in party performance, and finally to probabilistic forecasting of seat outcomes and of different combinations of parties commanding relevant governing majorities in parliament.     

非法吸收公众存款罪的对象范围研究

随着非法吸收公众存款案件的日益增多,其对象范围在理论和司法上出现了很多认识上的分歧,尤其是对于吸收对象公众"不特定性"的内涵、单位职工和亲友的范围、"存款"的刑法学解释等存在诸多争议。非法吸收公众存款罪的立法动因、立法过程是对象范围现实争议的基础,因此,从立法中"不特定性"的表现、免责条款的解读、"亲友"范围的明确化、"存款"的性质等多方面入手,可以深化理论,从而指导实践对非法吸收公众存款罪对象范围的认识。     

逆向平权选举的工具依赖——国家法团主义协调机制

参与选举是维护公民政治权利的一种基本形式,通过立法落实各选举原则是保障公民选举权的逻辑前提。根据乘积原理,公民选举权的落实状况是由各选举原则所组成的关系系统决定的,挖掘各选举原则的核心要素并分析这些要素在选举中发挥作用的有效程度,就可以推导出落实公民选举权的一般情形。在我国,以逆向平权为基本运行规则的选举逻辑根植于国家法团主义内部,数量有限的各法定团体和组织以责任明确、非竞争性的方式参与各项政治选举,它们在政治表达和代理人选择方面给予国家以组织化的支持并自愿接受国家的控制。这种以利益协调为本位的制度设计,是各选举组织的民意代表功能明显不足的现实缘由。     

Two dimensions of the Europeanization of election programs: The case of the Czech Republic

This article represents a contribution to the debate over the Europeanization of political parties, one of the hot topics in contemporary political science. It explores the extent of Europeanization in political parties represented in the lower chamber of the Parliament of the Czech Republic by means of an analysis of party election manifestoes. The extent of Europeanization in these documents is analyzed using a bi-dimensional conceptualization. The first we call the quantitative dimension, assesses the space taken by the topic of European integration in each manifesto. The second one we call the qualitative dimension. This, using the analysis of content, measures the degree to which the European integration issue is elaborated in the programs. Using this conceptualization, we analyze the election manifestoes of five Czech political parties in the period 1996–2006.     

关于我国降低存款准备金率几个问题的思考

目前我国有调低存款准备金率的可能。但达到调节经济效果有一定难度。通货紧缩内在形成机制不同决定着政策手段的多样性,而通货紧缩持续发展的经济背景的复杂性使单纯的存款准备金政策无力调节;信贷供求、银行经营理念及货币乘数不确定性致使中央银行对商业银行信贷控制效应弱化;货币流通速度时常变化加大货币需求测量难度;非银行机构的发展影响到存款准备金政策的公平性。     

超市自助寄存法律性质研究——基于合同法的视角

作为人工寄存方式的替代方式,超市自助寄存有其自身特点,其法律问题也有其特殊性。自助寄存柜的设置对于超市而言不是基于买卖合同的附随义务,而是与消费者之间的一种合同。进而言之,它属于保管合同而非借用合同。     

建立存款保险法律制度,完善对存款人利益的保护

存款人是金融市场存在的基石,是我国资本市场资金的主要来源。我国的立法虽然明确规定了对存款人的保护,实践中也通过各种方式尽量避免存款人遭受损失。但随着入世以来我国金融市场的不断开放,金融创新的进一步深化和发展,我国对存款人利益保护的缺陷也日益显现出来。本文将通过对我国现行的存款人利益保护状况的检讨,论证建立我国存款保险法律制度的必要性,并对该法律制度的建设提出一点建议,以促进我国存款保险法律制度的建立和存款人利益保护的完善。     

我国存款保险制度建立的必要性思考

我国已加入WTO并正按照世界贸易的规则要求加快金融业的对外开放。在经济全球化和金融全球化高度发展的今天,金融机构间竞争加剧,市场风险加大,如何保证金融活动高效安全的运作是世界各国共同面临的重大问题。金融监管当局的审慎监管和中央银行的最后贷款人的功能以及存款保险制度一起被公认为是构成金融安全网的三大基础。存款保险制度是维护金融业稳定的重要制度,它的建立可以有效激励金融机构保持充足的资本,控制金融成本,保护存款人的利益。我国目前尚未建立存款保险法制制度,建立该制度,将有利于维护我国的金融安全,营造公平竞争的市场环境,完善银行退出机制。     

Turkish Popular Presidential Elections: Deepening Legitimacy Issues and Looming Regime Change

This paper examines the politics of presidential elections in Turkey with particular reference to the 10 August 2014 presidential elections. It starts by scrutinising the change in the presidential election system from parliamentary to direct popular vote. It then probes the implementation of the new election rules, candidate selection, and the conduct of the campaign, followed by analysis of the election results and their influence on the Turkish record of democratisation. The paper concludes that the move to a partisan president elected by popular vote entails democratic dangers if the new incumbent does not abide by his or her constitutional role and attempts to intervene in government policy.     

To adapt or to defend? Comparing position shifts among Bundestag candidates between 2013 and 2017

In this research note, candidate survey data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) is used to analyse positional shifts of German Bundestag parties between 2013 and 2017. Two developments make Germany a particularly interesting case: (1) the liberal but also controversial policies of the Merkel cabinet during the European refugee crisis and (2) the change of leadership within the right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Applying scaling techniques to locate candidates of both elections in the same two-dimensional policy space, the analysis demonstrates that in 2017 the AfD took a distinct radical right position in the party system of Germany. Moreover, the study finds that almost all parties moved to the right on the cultural left–right dimension in 2017, whereas for the economic left–right dimension this has not been the case. Contrary to the mantra of an ideological delineation against right-wing populism, there has been a robust socio-political conservative shift in the German party system.