Values and Persuasion During the First Bush-Gore Presidential Debate

Appealing to values is an effective form of argumentation. In our analysis of the Bush-Gore debate, we found that values are fundamental in framing issues; their effectiveness is contingent on the issue context and the predisposition of the audience.­ Thus, merely constructing an appeal to values does not guarantee persuasiveness, as the appeal must be concrete in nature when attempting to move an audience to action. Such an appeal goes beyond creating a link between the value appeal and the issue, as the value appeal and the issue position must resonate with a defined audience. Our results indicate that most undecided voters who made up their minds as a result of the debate chose Gore, while a few chose Bush and some remained undecided. Those who chose Gore were clearly more egalitarian in their orientation than undecided voters who chose Bush or could not decide. Bush's use of individualism did not seem to persuade undecided voters, nor did it seem to have a detrimental impact on support for Gore. For the most part, Bush's support remained constant before and after the debate, at least among this particular audience.     

Voter overrepresentation,vote misreporting,and turnout bias in postelection surveys

Figures from postelection surveys often grossly overestimate election turnout. Two distinct phenomena are responsible for this gap: overrepresentation of actual voters and vote misreporting by actual nonvoters among survey respondents. Previous accounts of turnout bias are inconclusive in that they either focus on a single component, or fail to separate between the two. In this paper, we formally decompose turnout bias in election surveys into its constituent parts, assess their empirical prevalence and heterogeneity using an extensive collection of 49 vote validation studies from six countries, and employ Bayesian meta regression techniques to account for cross-study differences. Our results indicate that both election and survey characteristics such as actual voter turnout and survey response rates differentially affect the components of turnout bias. We conclude with a discussion of the threats and potentials of our findings for survey-based comparative electoral research.     

Looking to the future: Prospective economic voting in 2008 Presidential Elections

Despite the economic turmoil of the time, a typical study of vote choice in the 2008 US Presidential Election would (falsely) find little evidence that voters’ opinions about the future state of the economy affected their vote choice. We argue that this misleading conclusion results from serious measurement error in the standard prospective economic evaluations survey question. Relying instead on a revised question, included for the first time in the 2008 American National Election Study, we find that most respondents condition their prospective economic evaluations on potential election outcomes, and that these evaluations are an important determinant of vote choice. A replication in a very different political context – the 2008 Ghanaian election – yields similar results.     

Short-term factors versus long-term values: Explaining the 2009 election results

This paper examines the way three types of factors influence eastern and western German voters in order to assess the similarities and differences in electoral behavior across the former East-West divide. First, to what extend does the performance of parties and the regime influence party support in the East and the West? Second, how do candidate perceptions affect party support? Third, to what degree do ideological values influence vote choice? The results suggest that even 20 years after unification, voters in the East and the West still follow a partially different logic. While candidate evaluations broadly influence party support similarly, negative performance assessments lead west German voters to support the opposition, whereas eastern Germans tend to either “exit” the electoral arena or support the Linke party. Moreover, ideological values have no affect on party choice in the West, whereas they strongly influence the choice of Die Linke in the East. Theoretically, the results reflect the different East-West experiences, illustrating that voters in newer democracies may base their party choice on a different rationale than voters in more mature democracies.     

马来西亚政局突变的混沌学解读

2008年的马来西亚大选,出现了所有政评家都意想不到的结果,即执政的国阵失去数十年以来一直保有的多数国会议席和五个州政权.本文运用混沌理论对此"不规则"现象进行解读,先后分析选前形势,印度人示威及其对其他族群选民的影响,网络传播与政治动员的关系等.本文认为,政治领域和其他领域一样,也存在"混沌"或"不规则", "网络政治"特点,使当代政治的"不规则"日渐增多,传统定常的政治分析方法面临着新的挑战.     

我国存款准备金制度实施效果及改革建议

20多年来,我国存款准备金率的每一次调整都与中央银行宏观经济调控的意图有关。存款准备金制度具有调整信贷结构、调控货币供应量、保证金融机构的储备流动性等重要作用。但我国存款准备金制度还不完善,导致法定准备金政策效力的发挥并不理想。当前和今后一个时期要着重解决好降低和取消法定存款准备金利率、降低法定存款准备金率、完善差别存款准备金率制度以及扩充存款准备金结构、改革准备金的计提方式等问题。     

村委会选举的法律渊源

村委会选举的法律渊源,即村委会选举法律规范借以存在和表现的形式,包括宪法、法律、法规、规章、其他规范性文件和法的有权解释。基本的法律渊源与基本法律并不是一回事情,村委会组织法从严格的宪法意义上来讲,在国家的法律体系中并不是一部基本法律。对村委会选举作出规定的“中办”、“国办”“两办通知”虽不在立法法规定的法规、规章之列,但不应将其排除于村委会选举的法律渊源之外。目前,有必要制定一部全国统一的村委会选举法。     

Election type and the logic of pre-election violence: Evidence from Zimbabwe

Election violence is often conceptualized as a form of coercive campaigning, but the literature has not fully explored how electoral institutions shape incentives for competition and violence. We argue that the logic of subnational electoral competition – and with it incentives for violence – differs in presidential and legislative elections. In presidential elections, national-level considerations dominate incentives for violence. Presidential elections are usually decided by winning a majority of votes in a single, national district, incentivizing parties to demobilize voters with violence in strongholds. In contrast, election violence is subject to district-level incentives in legislative elections. District-level incentives imply that parties focus on winning the majority of districts, and therefore center violent campaigning on the most competitive districts. We test our argument with georeferenced, constituency-level data from Zimbabwe, a case that fits our scope conditions of holding competitive elections, violence by the incumbent, and majoritarian electoral rule. We find that most violence takes place in strongholds in presidential elections, especially in opposition strongholds. In contrast, competitive constituencies are targeted in legislative contests.     

政治性群体性事件的防范与处置

政治性群体性事件,是指一定数量的人员或组织,为其共同的、特定的政治目的,共同实施的带有浓厚政治色彩的集体违法甚至集体犯罪行为。它的主要特征有:一是原因复杂;二是参与主体复杂;三是目的复杂;四是具有组织性、反复性、对抗性,社会危害大。与一般的群体性治安事件相比较,政治性群体事件具有严重的破坏力,严重危害社会安全与政治稳定。对于政治性群体性事件,要从目的、动机、参与人员的性质加以区分,要在调查研究、实事求是的基础上有针对性地采取措施,防范、控制、处置。     

Winning cures everything? Beliefs about voter fraud,voter confidence,and the 2016 election

Rhetoric about “rigged” elections has raised concerns about the solidity of public trust in the integrity of the voting system. Mitigating these concerns, research by Sinclair et al. (2019) on the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign documents a robust “winner's effect” on voter confidence despite intense partisan messaging aimed at influencing citizens' acceptance of the legitimacy of the election. This suggests that regularly fluctuating electoral outcomes in competitive democracies limit the impact of elite messages on trust in electoral institutions. A critical question is whether similar dynamics apply to dimensions of electoral trust that are more clearly partisan-branded and targeted, such as beliefs about the prevalence of illicit voting. This paper uses a panel study with waves conducted before and after Election Day 2016 to compare the effect of election on beliefs about the extent of illicit voting and voter confidence. Underlining both the promise and limitations of democratic competition as a counterweight to elite efforts to sow electoral distrust, there are significant “winner's effects” on both but substantially smaller impact on beliefs about illicit voting, a difference that is especially large among strong Republican partisans.