乡村秩序与县乡村体制——兼论农民的合作能力问题

当前农民的原子化状况使村庄很难内生秩序,而使得通过行政嵌入形成秩序成为宿命.强势的地方行政在维持地方秩序的同时又掠夺农民,谋取私利,因此必须通过体制内的县乡民主来制约地方行政.现实可行的途径是将乡镇政府改为县级的派出机构,并通过完善选举和强化县级人大职能来约束具有强势能力的县行政权力及其派出机构乡公所.当前县乡村改制的目标是"强县、弱乡、实村".     

Exchange Rate Regime,Central Bank Independence,and Political Business Cycles in Brazil

This article examines policy consequences of electoral cycles and exchange rate regime choices in Brazil. The literature on opportunistic political business cycles maintains that governments adopt expansionary economic policies before elections to mobilize voters’ support. However, research findings in Latin America based on the theory has been inconclusive. I argue that the lack of conclusive evidence in Latin America stems from measurement errors common in the use of cross-national aggregate data. Using Brazil’s monthly data from 1985 to 2006, this article shows that there are electorally induced fiscal cycles under fixed and crawling peg exchange rate regimes and electorally induced monetary cycles under floating exchange rates only when the nation’s central bank is not independent. Indeed, accounting for Brazil’s unique economic contingencies and longitudinal variations in the de facto central bank independence, its public policy behavior remarkably resembles that of the more affluent, economically stable OECD countries.

略论商品房预售之定金

在实践中对订立商品房买卖合同前所交付的款项的用语不同,对其性质的判断应依《合同法》第125条关于合同解释的规定探究当事人的真实意思来确定。认购书中的定金具有立约定金和违约定金的性质,因当事人的约定也可具有解约定金的性质,其责任应适用定金的规定。     

非法吸收公众存款案存款人诉讼地位探析

非法吸收公众存款案的存款人是被害人还是证人 ,法律没有明确规定 ,在实践中的做法不一 ,笔者主张具体把该存款人分成利益未受到损害的存款人、利益受到损害且有过错的存款人和利益受到损害且无过错的存款人等三种情况。对前二者只能以“证人”的身份参加诉讼 ,而对第三种人应以“被害人”的身份参加诉讼。     

评罗莎·卢森堡对苏维埃政权的批评

罗莎·卢森堡高度肯定十月革命,但对新生的苏维埃政权提出了以下六方面的批评:批评苏维埃政权把土地分给农民,从而为以后的社会主义改造设置了障碍;批评苏维埃政权片面地实行民族自决权,从而把刀子送到了敌人的手里;批评苏维埃政权解散立宪会议,从而堵塞了人民群众的积极的政治生活;批评苏维埃政权推行空想的普选权,从而使之成了一种缺乏生命力的临时凑合的"一纸空文";批评苏维埃政权取消出版自由、结社和集会的权利,从而引起公共生活的野蛮化;批评苏维埃政权把民主与专政对立起来,从而远离了社会主义.尽管罗莎·卢森堡差不多是在90多年前提出这些警示性见解的,但是所有这些见解,人们至今读起来还是感到如此具有现实感,并得到深刻的启示.     

The role of ASEAN institutes of strategic and international studies in developing security cooperation in the Asia‐pacific region

As the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) governments are facing new challenges, the need to re‐evaluate the significance of the track‐two activities has been recognised. As there has been insufficient research on the ASEAN Institutes of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS), this article analyses their role in the development of security cooperation. It shows that ASEAN‐ISIS has contributed to the establishment of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) by analysing the common/cooperative security thinking, the establishment of an inter‐governmental forum for a security dialogue, and the extension of ASEAN's diplomatic style over a larger geographical area. As ASEAN‐ISIS has contributed to inter‐governmental cooperation by promoting ideas, this article concludes that the significance of their activities in contemporary Asian politics should be understood in terms of the introduction and promotion of such innovative ideas.     

Transforming international communications strategies

The strategy used by governments to communicate with foreign populations has changed dramatically in the twentieth century. The need perceived by governments to use such a strategy in the first place derived from numerous social changes in the 150 years before World War I, most particularly the increased role played in politics by the masses organized in nation‐states. The shifting strategy of persuasive communication since then forms part of a broader transformation of international political communication which includes technological change, organizational developments, and absolute but not necessarily relative growth in international communications transactions.

The predominant strategy developed in World War I was propaganda. It used fairly straightforward appeals to rationality, sense of morality, and such important but readily accessible emotions as hatred. Its excesses, especially the wide dissemination of atrocity stories which did not bear up well under later dispassionate examination, at once made all propaganda suspect and alerted governments to the necessity of refining their communicative techniques for the eventuality of future international conflicts.

The years before and during World War II saw international communicators—especially Goebbels in Nazi Germany and the Anglo‐American psychological warriors—develop a new strategy which utilized new knowledge about the psychological roots of human behavior. In addition to straightforward appeals to the consciousness of individuals, they sought to manipulate their audiences by playing on their deep‐seated desires and fears. Of particular importance for Nazi Germany were the allegedly racial ties of the individual to a people and the need for figures of authority.

First major experiments were made in World War II to develop an even more basic strategy of international communication: structuring the situation in which people learn their predispositions, perspectives, and behaviors. Its basic idea is to create situations in which the communicator does not have to tell the targeted audience anything at all, but in which the audience, left to its own devices, can only come to the conclusions desired by the communicator. Thus strategic bombing sought to destroy the morale of the enemy's home front and, through that action, to weaken its war‐making capacity. The postwar occupation of Germany originally sought to create a new environment in which Germans could be reeducated to democracy. Subsequent emphasis has also been on communications aimed at generating certain predispositions, such as a desire for consumer goods or a particular political style, which then spawn appropriate perspectives and behaviors.

This new strategy of structural communication has its limits. The most important of these is the difficulty of controlling all aspects of a foreign population's communications environment (which includes traditions, face‐to‐face networks, and conflicting sources of information). The potential importance of the strategy nonetheless makes it likely that governments will continue to work toward its development and implementation for their own international political purposes.     

泰国:2011～2012年回顾与展望

2011年7月,泰国提前举行大选,为泰党赢得选举并联合小党派组建联合政府。前总理他信的妹妹、为泰党候选人英拉·西那瓦当选泰国第28任总理,也是泰国历史上首位女总理。由于特大洪灾的影响,2011年泰国经济增长速度低于预期,新政府执政能力也经受考验。外交方面,泰柬边境冲突成为泰国本年度重要的外交事件,但两国关系随着英拉政府上台而开始出现缓和。     

低贷款利率、高存贷利差与房价

文章研究了我国利率对房价的影响,但与以往研究不同,文章重点考察了贷款利率和存贷款利差与房价的关系。研究表明,我国1998年以来贷款利率持续走低和存贷款利差持续扩大对于房价的上涨有着明显的推动作用。在贷款利率下降的同时,存贷款利差不断扩大,激励金融机构增加对房地产等领域的贷款,从而进一步刺激了房价的上涨。文章发现,缩小存贷款利率差对房价产生的影响要远远大于提高贷款利率的影响,而且模型回归还表明房价变化有着很强的惯性。根据以上分析我们认为,要抑制房价过度上涨需要从两个方面采取措施：一是在提高贷款利率的同时,缩小存贷款利率差;二是坚持调控政策,打破房价上涨的预期。